ATL: LAURA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#641 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:52 am

HMON is in striking distance of South Florida

Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes   

WxEp
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 71
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:34 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#642 Postby WxEp » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:53 am

00z GEFS below. Looks concerning for both the Bahamas and FL, especially as long as 98L stays north of the Greater Antilles.

Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#643 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:55 am

WxEp wrote:00z GEFS below. Looks concerning for both the Bahamas and FL, especially as long as 98L stays north of the Greater Antilles.

https://i.imgur.com/GYXNe3d.png

people are underestimating the risk of this setup if 98L clears the Antilles without a trough curving it out. so let's hope one comes through for us.
3 likes   

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#644 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:02 am

As if the models havent been painful enough, the Euro decided to poof 98L..........

Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
2 likes   

User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1889
Age: 66
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#645 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:07 am

Its weird, the euro seems to act like a disturbance isnt there :roll:
0 likes   

AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#646 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:08 am

AtlanticWind wrote:Its weird, the euro seems to act like a disturbance isnt there :roll:

model watching in 2020 gives me a headache.
0 likes   

storm4u
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 651
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 7:26 am
Location: agawam, ma
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#647 Postby storm4u » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:12 am

Euro will be a huge fail or huge win... 0z has nothing out to hour 72
0 likes   

AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#648 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:16 am

storm4u wrote:Euro will be a huge fail or huge win... 0z has nothing out to hour 72

if the euro is right, 98L should be dissipating by tomorrow night into thursday morning.
0 likes   

User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1889
Age: 66
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#649 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:22 am

Euro does not do anything to 97L either, seems to show hostile ( I guess) conditions in the atlantic.
Seems strange as other models show at least somewhat favorable conditions.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#650 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:27 am

WxEp wrote:00z GEFS below. Looks concerning for both the Bahamas and FL, especially as long as 98L stays north of the Greater Antilles.

https://i.imgur.com/GYXNe3d.png


I think we're underestimating the strength of the ridge, but that is just me. Regardless, we need to hope this fails to develop.
5 likes   

AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#651 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:30 am

i'm not gonna post the run, but the wave sorta skirts the north end of the islands, and goes directly over SFL and into the gulf.
0 likes   

Shell Mound
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2434
Age: 32
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#652 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:42 am

WxEp wrote:00z GEFS below. Looks concerning for both the Bahamas and FL, especially as long as 98L stays north of the Greater Antilles.

https://i.imgur.com/GYXNe3d.png

Interestingly, while the strongest members have shifted very little beyond day five vs. the 12Z suite, the 00Z ensemble mean is now west of the strongest members for the first time, whereas at 12Z roughly an equal number of strong members deviated either to the west or the east of the mean. Verbatim, this indicates that a stronger 98L is more likely to turn earlier and, if exceptionally intense while over or near (just east of) the Bahamas, might feel the shortwave impulses to its north and break through the narrow but strong ridge, thereby following the mid-level flow and curving east of the U.S. and/or the Bahamas. Since both the GFS and the ECMWF are likely too weak with 98L through the first five days, especially from days three through five, we need to watch for any significant changes in the location and timing of the various features, including the strength of the ridge, the short-term intensity trends with 98L, the extension (if any) of the Sonoran heat ridge, and the interaction of various shortwave impulses with 98L. While the threat to South FL is increasing, even OTS options are still very much on the table. Even subtle changes could mean the difference between a major hurricane striking Miami and a major hurricane curving OTS. And we must always bear in mind that climatology usually favours OTS, given that anomalous conditions are necessary for a MH to hit any land mass.
1 likes   
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 41
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#653 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:51 am

storm4u wrote:Euro will be a huge fail or huge win... 0z has nothing out to hour 72


Euro is always terrible in the Atlantic MDR, especially with large monsoonal-type systems, though I'm not sure what the reason is.
2 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Shell Mound
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2434
Age: 32
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#654 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:48 am

Interestingly, the 00Z HWRF, while extremely bullish with 98L in the long term (showing a Cat-5 over the SE Bahamas), is quite realistic with the intensity and pace of organisation through day four (ninety-six hours). It shows 98L gradually strengthening and becoming a low-end TS in two days. After that, it becomes a strong TS by day four. Not only is the HWRF’s intensity realistic, but also the track. In fact, its position of 98L by day four coincides well with that of the strongest 12Z EPS members, which also show a moderate to strong TS by that time. Both the HWRF and those EPS members place 98L north of Puerto Rico by day four. The problems begin beyond day four. At that point the HWRF indicates rapid deepening of 98L to a Cat-5 and an increase in forward speed as it continues WNW into the SE Bahamas. Based on the projected synoptic environment on the 12Z EPS, the sudden acceleration of 98L coincident with rapid deepening just seems unrealistic. A rapidly deepening TC would arguably move more slowly by then. I wonder if this is a known bias of the HWRF: unrealistically accelerating storms beneath ridges as they intensify quickly. The HWRF seems to artificially “pump up” background ridging due to flaws in its equations handling adiabatic warming with rapidly deepening cyclones. Thoughts?
5 likes   
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2081
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#655 Postby Blinhart » Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:05 am

sma10 wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
sma10 wrote:
The CMC destroys New Orleans


You mean rain wise?


20" of rain and hurricane winds for 24 hrs .. yikes

yeah that would destroy NO, don't think the new flood barriers could withstand it.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2081
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#656 Postby Blinhart » Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:07 am

EquusStorm wrote:Some of these runs are looking... interesting for the AL coast. Both for 97L and 98L. This is looking like a very ominous season for the Gulf Coast



Yeah, I don't like this and my gut is telling me we will be watching out until the end of September.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2081
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#657 Postby Blinhart » Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:10 am

Shell Mound wrote:
WxEp wrote:00z GEFS below. Looks concerning for both the Bahamas and FL, especially as long as 98L stays north of the Greater Antilles.

https://i.imgur.com/GYXNe3d.png

Interestingly, while the strongest members have shifted very little beyond day five vs. the 12Z suite, the 00Z ensemble mean is now west of the strongest members for the first time, whereas at 12Z roughly an equal number of strong members deviated either to the west or the east of the mean. Verbatim, this indicates that a stronger 98L is more likely to turn earlier and, if exceptionally intense while over or near (just east of) the Bahamas, might feel the shortwave impulses to its north and break through the narrow but strong ridge, thereby following the mid-level flow and curving east of the U.S. and/or the Bahamas. Since both the GFS and the ECMWF are likely too weak with 98L through the first five days, especially from days three through five, we need to watch for any significant changes in the location and timing of the various features, including the strength of the ridge, the short-term intensity trends with 98L, the extension (if any) of the Sonoran heat ridge, and the interaction of various shortwave impulses with 98L. While the threat to South FL is increasing, even OTS options are still very much on the table. Even subtle changes could mean the difference between a major hurricane striking Miami and a major hurricane curving OTS. And we must always bear in mind that climatology usually favours OTS, given that anomalous conditions are necessary for a MH to hit any land mass.


I hope you are right, but with the way 2020 is going you can never expect anything to go as it should.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

USTropics
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2651
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#658 Postby USTropics » Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:22 am

ECMWF ensembles doubling down on no development:
Image

Personally that seems highly unlikely given current satellite presentation and improvements to the mid-level circulation tonight.
0 likes   

USTropics
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2651
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#659 Postby USTropics » Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:23 am

00z UKMET takes 98L into south Florida and then into the GOM:
Image

Image
0 likes   

Shell Mound
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2434
Age: 32
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#660 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:28 am

Blinhart wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
WxEp wrote:00z GEFS below. Looks concerning for both the Bahamas and FL, especially as long as 98L stays north of the Greater Antilles.

https://i.imgur.com/GYXNe3d.png

Interestingly, while the strongest members have shifted very little beyond day five vs. the 12Z suite, the 00Z ensemble mean is now west of the strongest members for the first time, whereas at 12Z roughly an equal number of strong members deviated either to the west or the east of the mean. Verbatim, this indicates that a stronger 98L is more likely to turn earlier and, if exceptionally intense while over or near (just east of) the Bahamas, might feel the shortwave impulses to its north and break through the narrow but strong ridge, thereby following the mid-level flow and curving east of the U.S. and/or the Bahamas. Since both the GFS and the ECMWF are likely too weak with 98L through the first five days, especially from days three through five, we need to watch for any significant changes in the location and timing of the various features, including the strength of the ridge, the short-term intensity trends with 98L, the extension (if any) of the Sonoran heat ridge, and the interaction of various shortwave impulses with 98L. While the threat to South FL is increasing, even OTS options are still very much on the table. Even subtle changes could mean the difference between a major hurricane striking Miami and a major hurricane curving OTS. And we must always bear in mind that climatology usually favours OTS, given that anomalous conditions are necessary for a MH to hit any land mass.


I hope you are right, but with the way 2020 is going you can never expect anything to go as it should.

I’m not superstitious, even in 2020. :wink: I rely on science and personal experience as far as projections and modelling are concerned.
3 likes   
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests