ATL: MARCO - Models

[Steve]

132 hours on GFS has this spinning down in the BoC.

[Steve]

18Z GFS ends up bringing a remnant low over toward northern State of Vera Cruz Tuesday morning. Not much to see there.

[South Texas Storms]

I would love to see what the hurricane models (HWRF and HMON) do with this invest. Not sure why they haven't run for this system yet...

[CyclonicFury]

The Euro has been REMARKABLY consistent with this NOT developing.

[stormlover2013]

Icon has tropical storm strong in middle of gulf

[eastcoastFL]

Insanity!

[Steve]

That's wild. Who knows? ICON said they'd be around to begin with, so maybe? Probably not? ICON insists again on weakening at the end. IDK. You'd think something going into the extreme NW Gulf wouldn't be losing that much punch there. But it's got a 950 offshore of SW FL on a random track. So something's up with that run. If you look at it at 500mb, it doesn't make sense. We're inside a week now regardless if 97l ever does anything or not.

?

[Hammy]

Seems like it's the Euro/GFS against everybody else at this point--even the NAM is developing it (and it's generally been a good model with genesis, even if the 3km goes a bit crazy with intensity)

[Steve]

Haha. GFS does have 2 sub 1010mb low pressures at 108 hours. So maybe it's trying hard? But then 114 comes in and they aren't well depicted. lol

landfalls in Vera Cruz as not much.. CMC next.

[Steve]

Canadian in da hau, eh? Last run it kicked 97L down toward Mexico and 98L came in over top and hit LA. Who knows? Both systems are mysteries at the moment.

[Steve]

[eastcoastFL]

I would love to see what the hurricane models (HWRF and HMON) do with this invest. Not sure why they haven't run for this system yet...

HMON is running right now on 97l

[CrazyC83]

Insanity!


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2020081900/icon_mslp_pcpn_watl_48.png

Doubt that would happen. Most likely, the storm on the right (would be major Hurricane Laura) would shear the storm on the left (Tropical Storm Marco) to death.

[3090]

Canadian in da hau, eh? Last run it kicked 97L down toward Mexico and 98L came in over top and hit LA. Who knows? Both systems are mysteries at the moment.
https://i.imgur.com/ckGpvZX.png

Mysteries? Who knows?

Both systems are on track and have been moving along just as the pros (NHC), have stated. No surprises.

[kevin]

00z HWRF seems to have a strong tropical storm landfall near the Florida Pandhandle just after the end of its run.

[GCANE]

Massive difference in GFS and GFS-Para.

120 hrs out:
GFS-Para has a 990mb low over Cancun.
GFS nothing.
GFS-Para is going with a little more robust Rossby wave.
GFS-Para showing a strong TPW infeed. GFS not.

162 hrs out:
GFS-Para slams Houston at about 956 mb.
GFS nothing.

[GCANE]

CMC, NAVGEM, and GFS-Para are pretty close.

[SconnieCane]

Ouch, CMC hits the same spot that got Hanna. Interestingly all of them are relatively weak with the implied eventual TC out of 98L, although they seem to be taking it north of the GA.

[GCANE]

84 hrs out.

NAM showing a more robust Rossby Wave but a more unstable GoM as compared to GFS.

[eastcoastFL]

Insanity!


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2020081900/icon_mslp_pcpn_watl_48.png

Doubt that would happen. Most likely, the storm on the right (would be major Hurricane Laura) would shear the storm on the left (Tropical Storm Marco) to death.

Good to know. I don’t want to ever see 2 storms in the gulf together.