ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

06z EPS certainly shows no sign.

Does 6z poof the wave or is there still a wave?

Ensembles are a ghost town which is unusual for a developing tc.

[Aric Dunn]

06z EPS certainly shows no sign.

Does 6z poof the wave or is there still a wave?

Ensembles are a ghost town which is unusual for a developing tc.

Well like Hanna.. looks like the Euro will have to be force fed... again..

[hipshot]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
19/1130 UTC 11.5N 44.6W T1.5/1.5 98L
19/0530 UTC 11.6N 43.4W T1.5/1.5 98L
18/2330 UTC 11.7N 42.3W T1.0/1.0 98L
18/1730 UTC 11.8N 42.0W T1.0/1.0 98L

T Values going up... I's place the circulation center closer to 12.0N...

If I'm reading this right, it looks to me as if it is moving south, ie. change in LAT from 11.8N to 11.5N or maybe I haven't had enough
coffee yet.

[wx98]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
19/1130 UTC 11.5N 44.6W T1.5/1.5 98L
19/0530 UTC 11.6N 43.4W T1.5/1.5 98L
18/2330 UTC 11.7N 42.3W T1.0/1.0 98L
18/1730 UTC 11.8N 42.0W T1.0/1.0 98L

T Values going up... I's place the circulation center closer to 12.0N...

If I'm reading this right, it looks to me as if it is moving south, ie. change in LAT from 11.8N to 11.5N or maybe I haven't had enough
coffee yet.

I’d say when it fully develops it will embark on a WNW motion, but delayed development can have track impacts down the road, such as it hanging closer to the islands.

[SouthDadeFish]

It wouldn't be 2020 without our best models showing no development as observations show an organizing disturbance. Probably not too far off from a TC right now. Aric is correct that the eastern side has gotten better organized, shedding the convergent boundary associated with the monsoon trough. I think this should allow convection to persist in the western vort max we have been tracking.

I don't want to speculate on the forecast track too much until we definitively see where and when a TC forms, but if I lived in the northern Antilles, I would definitely prepare for the potential of TC impacts over the next 3–5 days.

Something to note: as of now, we should have a NOAA P3 flight into 98L sometime tomorrow. Hopefully observations from the plane, including the onboard radar observations, will allow the models to more properly resolve the structure of the disturbance.

[Nuno]

Wouldn't any developing cyclone struggle with choked off inflow if it tracks too close to the coast of the Antilles, even if it stays just over the water?

[SouthDadeFish]

Not quite a TC yet. Surface circulation is still too broad and elongated:

[AutoPenalti]

It wouldn't be 2020 without our best models showing no development as observations show an organizing disturbance. Probably not too far off from a TC right now. Aric is correct that the eastern side has gotten better organized, shedding the convergent boundary associated with the monsoon trough. I think this should allow convection to persist in the western vort max we have been tracking.

I don't want to speculate on the forecast track too much until we definitively see where and when a TC forms, but if I lived in the northern Antilles, I would definitely prepare for the potential of TC impacts over the next 3–5 days.

Something to note: as of now, we should have a NOAA P3 flight into 98L sometime tomorrow. Hopefully observations from the plane, including the onboard radar observations, will allow the models to more properly resolve the structure of the disturbance.

You mean the western side?

[SouthDadeFish]

It wouldn't be 2020 without our best models showing no development as observations show an organizing disturbance. Probably not too far off from a TC right now. Aric is correct that the eastern side has gotten better organized, shedding the convergent boundary associated with the monsoon trough. I think this should allow convection to persist in the western vort max we have been tracking.

I don't want to speculate on the forecast track too much until we definitively see where and when a TC forms, but if I lived in the northern Antilles, I would definitely prepare for the potential of TC impacts over the next 3–5 days.

Something to note: as of now, we should have a NOAA P3 flight into 98L sometime tomorrow. Hopefully observations from the plane, including the onboard radar observations, will allow the models to more properly resolve the structure of the disturbance.

You mean the western side?

Sorry for confusion. Eastern side of 98L. Western side of overall wave envelope.

[AutoPenalti]

It wouldn't be 2020 without our best models showing no development as observations show an organizing disturbance. Probably not too far off from a TC right now. Aric is correct that the eastern side has gotten better organized, shedding the convergent boundary associated with the monsoon trough. I think this should allow convection to persist in the western vort max we have been tracking.

I don't want to speculate on the forecast track too much until we definitively see where and when a TC forms, but if I lived in the northern Antilles, I would definitely prepare for the potential of TC impacts over the next 3–5 days.

Something to note: as of now, we should have a NOAA P3 flight into 98L sometime tomorrow. Hopefully observations from the plane, including the onboard radar observations, will allow the models to more properly resolve the structure of the disturbance.

You mean the western side?

Sorry for confusion. Eastern side of 98L. Western side of overall wave envelope.

No worries, I was confused when I noticed you mentioned that.

[gatorcane]

Ok I will concede some on the shear but the dry air is very much a problem. You can see it in the visible shot:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[Aric Dunn]

Not quite a TC yet. Surface circulation is still too broad and elongated:

https://i.imgur.com/WdmOk3p.jpg

oh man that thing is loaded with ambiguities in the west and SW quad. we just saw this with ASCAT and Josephine where the NHC upgraded despite the SCAT not showing a well defiend circ do to those ambiguities.

that entire west and SW is obviously not correct lol that is the best looking low level structure on satellite. lol

[Blown Away]

Tropical Tidbits, reports position at 12.N... Not the official info, but I think the circulation is consolidating a bit farther N than 11.5..

[toad strangler]

Not quite a TC yet. Surface circulation is still too broad and elongated:

https://i.imgur.com/WdmOk3p.jpg

oh man that thing is loaded with ambiguities in the west and SW quad. we just saw this with ASCAT and Josephine where the NHC upgraded despite the SCAT not showing a well defiend circ do to those ambiguities.

that entire west and SW is obviously not correct lol that is the best looking low level structure on satellite. lol

You just totally confused me here.

[tarheelprogrammer]

This looks like a TD to me. Just my humble opinion. You can see the spin and it has consolidated quite a bit. Convection is hanging around as well.

[Nimbus]

12N at 50W there should be consolidation for model runs and NHC will probably pull the trigger on TD status by then.

[Extratropical94]

https://i.imgur.com/hr3FkxD.jpg
Tropical Tidbits, reports position at 12.N... Not the official info, but I think the circulation is consolidating a bit farther N than 11.5..

That's the best track position from 12Z, so it sort of is the official position right now.

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/hr3FkxD.jpg
Tropical Tidbits, reports position at 12.N... Not the official info, but I think the circulation is consolidating a bit farther N than 11.5..

That's the best track position from 12Z, so it sort of is the official position right now.

That's @30 mile adjustment in short term... These adjustments now may have impacts on going over or just missing the big islands...

[sma10]

I think quite important today to track 98's latitude. To give any credence to the north of GA track, I think the system would have to gain appreciable latitude today as it organizes

[BobHarlem]

https://i.imgur.com/hr3FkxD.jpg
Tropical Tidbits, reports position at 12.N... Not the official info, but I think the circulation is consolidating a bit farther N than 11.5..

That's the best track position from 12Z, so it sort of is the official position right now.

That's @30 mile adjustment in short term... These adjustments now may have impacts on going over or just missing the big islands...

With the 12z early models all right over the greater Antillies this far out, I suspect that'll change, it won't take much for it to shift off land again (maybe even south of the islands which I'm leaning toward), so looks like it's going to be another day of iffy models today (at least past Friday).