toad strangler wrote:SFLcane wrote:06z EPS certainly shows no sign.
Does 6z poof the wave or is there still a wave?
Ensembles are a ghost town which is unusual for a developing tc.
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toad strangler wrote:SFLcane wrote:06z EPS certainly shows no sign.
Does 6z poof the wave or is there still a wave?
SFLcane wrote:toad strangler wrote:SFLcane wrote:06z EPS certainly shows no sign.
Does 6z poof the wave or is there still a wave?
Ensembles are a ghost town which is unusual for a developing tc.
Blown Away wrote:DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
19/1130 UTC 11.5N 44.6W T1.5/1.5 98L
19/0530 UTC 11.6N 43.4W T1.5/1.5 98L
18/2330 UTC 11.7N 42.3W T1.0/1.0 98L
18/1730 UTC 11.8N 42.0W T1.0/1.0 98L
T Values going up... I's place the circulation center closer to 12.0N...
hipshot wrote:Blown Away wrote:DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
19/1130 UTC 11.5N 44.6W T1.5/1.5 98L
19/0530 UTC 11.6N 43.4W T1.5/1.5 98L
18/2330 UTC 11.7N 42.3W T1.0/1.0 98L
18/1730 UTC 11.8N 42.0W T1.0/1.0 98L
T Values going up... I's place the circulation center closer to 12.0N...
If I'm reading this right, it looks to me as if it is moving south, ie. change in LAT from 11.8N to 11.5N or maybe I haven't had enough
coffee yet.
SouthDadeFish wrote:It wouldn't be 2020 without our best models showing no development as observations show an organizing disturbance. Probably not too far off from a TC right now. Aric is correct that the eastern side has gotten better organized, shedding the convergent boundary associated with the monsoon trough. I think this should allow convection to persist in the western vort max we have been tracking.
I don't want to speculate on the forecast track too much until we definitively see where and when a TC forms, but if I lived in the northern Antilles, I would definitely prepare for the potential of TC impacts over the next 3–5 days.
Something to note: as of now, we should have a NOAA P3 flight into 98L sometime tomorrow. Hopefully observations from the plane, including the onboard radar observations, will allow the models to more properly resolve the structure of the disturbance.
AutoPenalti wrote:SouthDadeFish wrote:It wouldn't be 2020 without our best models showing no development as observations show an organizing disturbance. Probably not too far off from a TC right now. Aric is correct that the eastern side has gotten better organized, shedding the convergent boundary associated with the monsoon trough. I think this should allow convection to persist in the western vort max we have been tracking.
I don't want to speculate on the forecast track too much until we definitively see where and when a TC forms, but if I lived in the northern Antilles, I would definitely prepare for the potential of TC impacts over the next 3–5 days.
Something to note: as of now, we should have a NOAA P3 flight into 98L sometime tomorrow. Hopefully observations from the plane, including the onboard radar observations, will allow the models to more properly resolve the structure of the disturbance.
You mean the western side?
SouthDadeFish wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:SouthDadeFish wrote:It wouldn't be 2020 without our best models showing no development as observations show an organizing disturbance. Probably not too far off from a TC right now. Aric is correct that the eastern side has gotten better organized, shedding the convergent boundary associated with the monsoon trough. I think this should allow convection to persist in the western vort max we have been tracking.
I don't want to speculate on the forecast track too much until we definitively see where and when a TC forms, but if I lived in the northern Antilles, I would definitely prepare for the potential of TC impacts over the next 3–5 days.
Something to note: as of now, we should have a NOAA P3 flight into 98L sometime tomorrow. Hopefully observations from the plane, including the onboard radar observations, will allow the models to more properly resolve the structure of the disturbance.
You mean the western side?
Sorry for confusion. Eastern side of 98L. Western side of overall wave envelope.
SouthDadeFish wrote:Not quite a TC yet. Surface circulation is still too broad and elongated:
https://i.imgur.com/WdmOk3p.jpg
Aric Dunn wrote:SouthDadeFish wrote:Not quite a TC yet. Surface circulation is still too broad and elongated:
https://i.imgur.com/WdmOk3p.jpg
oh man that thing is loaded with ambiguities in the west and SW quad. we just saw this with ASCAT and Josephine where the NHC upgraded despite the SCAT not showing a well defiend circ do to those ambiguities.
that entire west and SW is obviously not correct lol that is the best looking low level structure on satellite. lol
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/hr3FkxD.jpg
Tropical Tidbits, reports position at 12.N... Not the official info, but I think the circulation is consolidating a bit farther N than 11.5..
Extratropical94 wrote:Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/hr3FkxD.jpg
Tropical Tidbits, reports position at 12.N... Not the official info, but I think the circulation is consolidating a bit farther N than 11.5..
That's the best track position from 12Z, so it sort of is the official position right now.
Blown Away wrote:Extratropical94 wrote:Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/hr3FkxD.jpg
Tropical Tidbits, reports position at 12.N... Not the official info, but I think the circulation is consolidating a bit farther N than 11.5..
That's the best track position from 12Z, so it sort of is the official position right now.
That's @30 mile adjustment in short term... These adjustments now may have impacts on going over or just missing the big islands...
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