ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

My track yesterday had it crossing the islands of the NE Caribbean Fri PM/Sat AM then moving along the coasts of the DR & Cuba Sun/Mon, possibly as a weak TS interacting with land or a depression. It may be moving fast enough there to produce 40 mph winds on the north side. The environment won't be THAT favorable for strengthening over the next 5 days. I had it in the east-central Gulf Tuesday morning as a 40 kt TS yesterday. Today's track is similar, but advances the center to near the AL/FL border Wednesday afternoon as a 55 kt TS. Why 55 kts? Just a guess this far out. Somewhere between an open wave and a Cat 2 hurricane. Don't want to cause too much alarm 7 days out for Gulf Coast clients.

I like how some of the models (UKMET, CMC, ICON) have two storms in the Gulf at the same time next Mon/Tue. That would be fun - NOT! Oh well, it is 2020, what else could go wrong?

Any particular reason you don’t think this could obtain major status? I mean we’re nearly in late August.

[Hurricaneman]

Here’s my guess on this

The low is starting to gain latitude, should be a depression by 5pm, but will be a minimal hurricane for Puerto Rico and will be disrupted by Hispaniola but will make landfall in Miami as a 65mph TS but if it avoids Hispaniola will be a significantly stronger hurricane for South Florida

Now 90% of development
6hrs. PTC 35mph
12hrs. TS 40mph
24hrs. TS 45mph
36hrs. TS 45mph
48hrs. TS 50mph
72hrs. TS 70mph
84hrs. C1 75mph
96hrs. TS 45mph on the Hispaniola coast
120hrs TS 65mph off of Miami
144hrs TS 50mph East of Tampa

This could all change if it stays off Hispaniola

[sma10]

Headache...

Waits to unleash its strength instead of playing out at the last minute like Irma...

All hands be prepared...

NOT A PREDICTION, but this is sorta the "FL Perfect Nightmare" that gov't officials fear .... a messy, fast moving bit of a blob, no real model support, assumptions that the Antilles will take care of matters. Then all of a sudden this 40kt TS passes 73W and explodes

[DestinHurricane]

Here’s my guess on this

The low is starting to gain latitude, should be a depression by 5pm, but will be a minimal hurricane for Puerto Rico and will be disrupted by Hispaniola but will make landfall in Miami as a 65mph TS but if it avoids Hispaniola will be a significantly stronger hurricane for South Florida

Now 90% of development
6hrs. PTC 35mph
12hrs. TS 40mph
24hrs. TS 45mph
36hrs. TS 45mph
48hrs. TS 50mph
72hrs. TS 70mph
84hrs. C1 75mph
96hrs. TS 45mph on the Hispaniola coast
120hrs TS 65mph off of Miami
144hrs TS 50mph East of Tampa

This could all change if it stays off Hispaniola

Quite a bit of real estate between Hispaniola and Miami. Could certainly strengthen more than 20 mph between the two. And it's likely to just skirt Hispaniola rather than plow through it.

[Hurricaneman]

Here’s my guess on this

The low is starting to gain latitude, should be a depression by 5pm, but will be a minimal hurricane for Puerto Rico and will be disrupted by Hispaniola but will make landfall in Miami as a 65mph TS but if it avoids Hispaniola will be a significantly stronger hurricane for South Florida

Now 90% of development
6hrs. PTC 35mph
12hrs. TS 40mph
24hrs. TS 45mph
36hrs. TS 45mph
48hrs. TS 50mph
72hrs. TS 70mph
84hrs. C1 75mph
96hrs. TS 45mph on the Hispaniola coast
120hrs TS 65mph off of Miami
144hrs TS 50mph East of Tampa

This could all change if it stays off Hispaniola

Quite a bit of real estate between Hispaniola and Miami. Could certainly strengthen more than 20 mph between the two. And it's likely to just skirt Hispaniola rather than plow through it.

Core disruption from The mountains of Hispaniola

[sma10]

12z CMC going for the ironic "Happy Andrew Anniversary" present

[DestinHurricane]

Here’s my guess on this

The low is starting to gain latitude, should be a depression by 5pm, but will be a minimal hurricane for Puerto Rico and will be disrupted by Hispaniola but will make landfall in Miami as a 65mph TS but if it avoids Hispaniola will be a significantly stronger hurricane for South Florida

Now 90% of development
6hrs. PTC 35mph
12hrs. TS 40mph
24hrs. TS 45mph
36hrs. TS 45mph
48hrs. TS 50mph
72hrs. TS 70mph
84hrs. C1 75mph
96hrs. TS 45mph on the Hispaniola coast
120hrs TS 65mph off of Miami
144hrs TS 50mph East of Tampa

This could all change if it stays off Hispaniola

Quite a bit of real estate between Hispaniola and Miami. Could certainly strengthen more than 20 mph between the two. And it's likely to just skirt Hispaniola rather than plow through it.

Core disruption from The mountains of Hispaniola

If it just skirts the north shore of the island then it shouldn't be too bad.

[EquusStorm]

As long as it doesn't pull an Isaias and decide to consolidate near mountains instead of die over them

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Here’s my guess on this

The low is starting to gain latitude, should be a depression by 5pm, but will be a minimal hurricane for Puerto Rico and will be disrupted by Hispaniola but will make landfall in Miami as a 65mph TS but if it avoids Hispaniola will be a significantly stronger hurricane for South Florida

Now 90% of development
6hrs. PTC 35mph
12hrs. TS 40mph
24hrs. TS 45mph
36hrs. TS 45mph
48hrs. TS 50mph
72hrs. TS 70mph
84hrs. C1 75mph
96hrs. TS 45mph on the Hispaniola coast
120hrs TS 65mph off of Miami
144hrs TS 50mph East of Tampa

This could all change if it stays off Hispaniola

Quite a bit of real estate between Hispaniola and Miami. Could certainly strengthen more than 20 mph between the two. And it's likely to just skirt Hispaniola rather than plow through it.

Core disruption from The mountains of Hispaniola

Not to completely discredit this, but there may not be much of a core for Hispanola to disrupt, which could allow the system to quickly reorganize and strengthen more than projected. Also, I'm not confident that this system interacts with Hispanola directly; a track just north of the Greater Antilles (thanks in part to a bit earlier development of 98L than the models have forecast so far) is what I would currently lean on.

However, I don't blame you for opting to go with extended land interaction, as many models (and the consensus TVCN) show pretty significant land interaction from Puerto Rico westward, at least in the most recent runs.

[eastcoastFL]

Here’s my guess on this

The low is starting to gain latitude, should be a depression by 5pm, but will be a minimal hurricane for Puerto Rico and will be disrupted by Hispaniola but will make landfall in Miami as a 65mph TS but if it avoids Hispaniola will be a significantly stronger hurricane for South Florida

Now 90% of development
6hrs. PTC 35mph
12hrs. TS 40mph
24hrs. TS 45mph
36hrs. TS 45mph
48hrs. TS 50mph
72hrs. TS 70mph
84hrs. C1 75mph
96hrs. TS 45mph on the Hispaniola coast
120hrs TS 65mph off of Miami
144hrs TS 50mph East of Tampa

This could all change if it stays off Hispaniola

Quite a bit of real estate between Hispaniola and Miami. Could certainly strengthen more than 20 mph between the two. And it's likely to just skirt Hispaniola rather than plow through it.

Core disruption from The mountains of Hispaniola

Right and even if it stays over water the mountains can still put it in check for a little while by cutting off flow from the bands. A whole bunch of “ifs” currently.

[eastcoastFL]

CMC isn’t pretty. Brings a high end cat 1 maybe low end cat 2 into what looks like Browards then goes into the gulf and hits the western panhandle/bama... Icon still rolls north of the islands but south of Florida and heads for the gulf before approaching the big bend area or panhandle

[eastcoastFL]

Clouds starting to fill in near the circulation and convection firing to the north. It’s still on its way to developing. I don’t see anything adverse so far

[wxman57]

As a side note, I'm expecting the NHC to initiate PTC advisories this afternoon (could be a depression then). Still looks much better than TS Josephine last weekend, but no ASCAT to conform well-defined LLC. I've seen what looked clearly like a TS in the Caribbean on satellite with recon unable to close off a circulation.

Not that I would ever have a reason to second guess you of all people, but given this still roughly 2.5 days away from bringing TS conditions to the St. Maarten region, wouldn't this be a bit early to issue TS watches (which as I understand it is the primary reasoning for PTC designation)? Hasn't even been mentioned yet in the TWO, which is often a precursor to PTC advisories.

Consensus has it passing west of 60W around 4PM AST Friday, that puts TS winds into the islands very shortly after 4PM. The NHC doesn't like to start advisories late in the evening, so their option would be to start advisories this afternoon or wait until 4AM tomorrow, at which time they may need a warning vs. a watch.

[Hurricaneman]

Also based on what I’m seeing now it’s moving at 290/300 based on where the turning motion is as opposed to what I was seeing earlier

[wxman57]

My track yesterday had it crossing the islands of the NE Caribbean Fri PM/Sat AM then moving along the coasts of the DR & Cuba Sun/Mon, possibly as a weak TS interacting with land or a depression. It may be moving fast enough there to produce 40 mph winds on the north side. The environment won't be THAT favorable for strengthening over the next 5 days. I had it in the east-central Gulf Tuesday morning as a 40 kt TS yesterday. Today's track is similar, but advances the center to near the AL/FL border Wednesday afternoon as a 55 kt TS. Why 55 kts? Just a guess this far out. Somewhere between an open wave and a Cat 2 hurricane. Don't want to cause too much alarm 7 days out for Gulf Coast clients.

I like how some of the models (UKMET, CMC, ICON) have two storms in the Gulf at the same time next Mon/Tue. That would be fun - NOT! Oh well, it is 2020, what else could go wrong?

Any particular reason you don’t think this could obtain major status? I mean we’re nearly in late August.

It may be still battling dry air and wind shear until it reaches the SE Gulf Monday, not to mention interactions with the DR and Cuba.

[wxman57]

I'm measuring 281 deg at 10 kts past 3 hrs. May be nearly due west along 12.0N to 12.1N. With 1-deg lat/lon lines plotted on my workstation, I can't detect much northward component. That's following the apparent center, not the blob of convection to the north, which is moving more WNW. I have the center at 12.03N / 45.49W

[MGC]

98L looking more and more like a TC. Could get upgraded soon. Going to be one to watch.....MGC

[captainbarbossa19]

This is interesting. I hope this turns out not to be a good analog.

1900 Galveston Hurricane Track:

[DestinHurricane]

Some convection firing to the north.

[eastcoastFL]

This is interesting. I hope this turns out not to be a good analog.

1900 Galveston Hurricane Track:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/12/1900_Galveston_hurricane_track.png

Was that a cat 3?