ATL: LAURA - Models

[DestinHurricane]

CMC must really hate me. Landfalls at both of my properties lol. Doubt it verifies but wouldn't that be something.

[SFLcane]

CMC must really hate me. Landfalls at both of my properties lol. Doubt it verifies but wouldn't that be something.

Don’t doubt it if it manages to avoid land interaction it’s certainly on the table.

[ColdMiser123]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 18.2N 62.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2020 72 18.7N 64.4W 1007 33
0000UTC 23.08.2020 84 19.5N 67.9W 1005 36
1200UTC 23.08.2020 96 20.5N 72.0W 1002 40
0000UTC 24.08.2020 108 21.3N 75.9W 998 45
1200UTC 24.08.2020 120 22.6N 80.4W 994 45
0000UTC 25.08.2020 132 24.5N 84.1W 994 49
1200UTC 25.08.2020 144 26.7N 87.0W 994 52

[Stormcenter]

The models are everywhere with these invests.
I wouldn’t put any weight on any of them until we actually
have an organized system. Depending on which one you believe you could either have 2 storms in
Gulf or nothing but disorganized storms.

[SFLcane]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 18.2N 62.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2020 72 18.7N 64.4W 1007 33
0000UTC 23.08.2020 84 19.5N 67.9W 1005 36
1200UTC 23.08.2020 96 20.5N 72.0W 1002 40
0000UTC 24.08.2020 108 21.3N 75.9W 998 45
1200UTC 24.08.2020 120 22.6N 80.4W 994 45
0000UTC 25.08.2020 132 24.5N 84.1W 994 49
1200UTC 25.08.2020 144 26.7N 87.0W 994 52

.

[lsuhurricane]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 18.2N 62.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2020 72 18.7N 64.4W 1007 33
0000UTC 23.08.2020 84 19.5N 67.9W 1005 36
1200UTC 23.08.2020 96 20.5N 72.0W 1002 40
0000UTC 24.08.2020 108 21.3N 75.9W 998 45
1200UTC 24.08.2020 120 22.6N 80.4W 994 45
0000UTC 25.08.2020 132 24.5N 84.1W 994 49
1200UTC 25.08.2020 144 26.7N 87.0W 994 52

BIG shift to the west into the NE GOM.

[DestinHurricane]

Interesting to note that over 50% of the 12Z intensity guidance brings this to Hurricane strength. The intensity consensus (IVCN) has a hurricane. Usually the IVCN is conservative.

[chris_fit]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 18.2N 62.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2020 72 18.7N 64.4W 1007 33
0000UTC 23.08.2020 84 19.5N 67.9W 1005 36
1200UTC 23.08.2020 96 20.5N 72.0W 1002 40
0000UTC 24.08.2020 108 21.3N 75.9W 998 45
1200UTC 24.08.2020 120 22.6N 80.4W 994 45
0000UTC 25.08.2020 132 24.5N 84.1W 994 49
1200UTC 25.08.2020 144 26.7N 87.0W 994 52

.

Way south of FL - through Cuba actually

[toad strangler]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 18.2N 62.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2020 72 18.7N 64.4W 1007 33
0000UTC 23.08.2020 84 19.5N 67.9W 1005 36
1200UTC 23.08.2020 96 20.5N 72.0W 1002 40
0000UTC 24.08.2020 108 21.3N 75.9W 998 45
1200UTC 24.08.2020 120 22.6N 80.4W 994 45
0000UTC 25.08.2020 132 24.5N 84.1W 994 49
1200UTC 25.08.2020 144 26.7N 87.0W 994 52

.

Way south of FL - through Cuba actually

Sounds like TVCN

[kevin]

12z HMON so far, 993 mbar at 72 hours and further North than the last few runs.

[Powellrm]

I think I'm going to have to stop model watching and tune back in after a few days when we have a more developed system and a better feel for the ridging that's happening.

[SFLcane]

12z HMON shifted north avoiding most of the islands.

[WeatherEmperor]

12z HMON shifted north avoiding most of the islands.

Looks like a Cat 3 maybe??




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[Evil Jeremy]

Hopefully the NHC can get the Gulfstream out sooner than it did for Isaias to get the models the upper-air data they need... Last month, it took them about two days longer than ideal to get those upper-air missions rolling. IIRC they kept scheduling *possible* G-IV flights and cancelling them.

[SouthFLTropics]

That’s a significant jump north on the HMON. We definitely need G-IV data on the ridge along with additional balloon releases if possible.


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[WeatherEmperor]

HMON closing in on Florida as a Cat 3




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[chris_fit]

12Z EURO Running. Expecting a dud.

[DestinHurricane]

HMON would most likely miss FL

Edit: Thought Andros was the last frame lol. It actually slams cat 3 right into Miami.

[caneseddy]

HWRF is Georges Part 2 (going through PR and DR) but not as strong

[caneseddy]

HMON finishes its run as a major hurricane about to landfall in Miami.