ATL: LAURA - Models

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DestinHurricane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#761 Postby DestinHurricane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 11:47 am

CMC must really hate me. Landfalls at both of my properties lol. Doubt it verifies but wouldn't that be something.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#762 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 11:50 am

DestinHurricane wrote:CMC must really hate me. Landfalls at both of my properties lol. Doubt it verifies but wouldn't that be something.


Don’t doubt it if it manages to avoid land interaction it’s certainly on the table.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#763 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:00 pm

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 18.2N 62.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2020 72 18.7N 64.4W 1007 33
0000UTC 23.08.2020 84 19.5N 67.9W 1005 36
1200UTC 23.08.2020 96 20.5N 72.0W 1002 40
0000UTC 24.08.2020 108 21.3N 75.9W 998 45
1200UTC 24.08.2020 120 22.6N 80.4W 994 45
0000UTC 25.08.2020 132 24.5N 84.1W 994 49
1200UTC 25.08.2020 144 26.7N 87.0W 994 52
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#764 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:03 pm

The models are everywhere with these invests.
I wouldn’t put any weight on any of them until we actually
have an organized system. Depending on which one you believe you could either have 2 storms in
Gulf or nothing but disorganized storms.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#765 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:03 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 18.2N 62.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2020 72 18.7N 64.4W 1007 33
0000UTC 23.08.2020 84 19.5N 67.9W 1005 36
1200UTC 23.08.2020 96 20.5N 72.0W 1002 40
0000UTC 24.08.2020 108 21.3N 75.9W 998 45
1200UTC 24.08.2020 120 22.6N 80.4W 994 45
0000UTC 25.08.2020 132 24.5N 84.1W 994 49
1200UTC 25.08.2020 144 26.7N 87.0W 994 52


.
Last edited by SFLcane on Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#766 Postby lsuhurricane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:03 pm

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 18.2N 62.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2020 72 18.7N 64.4W 1007 33
0000UTC 23.08.2020 84 19.5N 67.9W 1005 36
1200UTC 23.08.2020 96 20.5N 72.0W 1002 40
0000UTC 24.08.2020 108 21.3N 75.9W 998 45
1200UTC 24.08.2020 120 22.6N 80.4W 994 45
0000UTC 25.08.2020 132 24.5N 84.1W 994 49
1200UTC 25.08.2020 144 26.7N 87.0W 994 52



BIG shift to the west into the NE GOM.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#767 Postby DestinHurricane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:06 pm

Interesting to note that over 50% of the 12Z intensity guidance brings this to Hurricane strength. The intensity consensus (IVCN) has a hurricane. Usually the IVCN is conservative.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#768 Postby chris_fit » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:07 pm

SFLcane wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 18.2N 62.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2020 72 18.7N 64.4W 1007 33
0000UTC 23.08.2020 84 19.5N 67.9W 1005 36
1200UTC 23.08.2020 96 20.5N 72.0W 1002 40
0000UTC 24.08.2020 108 21.3N 75.9W 998 45
1200UTC 24.08.2020 120 22.6N 80.4W 994 45
0000UTC 25.08.2020 132 24.5N 84.1W 994 49
1200UTC 25.08.2020 144 26.7N 87.0W 994 52


.



Way south of FL - through Cuba actually
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#769 Postby toad strangler » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:09 pm

chris_fit wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 18.2N 62.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2020 72 18.7N 64.4W 1007 33
0000UTC 23.08.2020 84 19.5N 67.9W 1005 36
1200UTC 23.08.2020 96 20.5N 72.0W 1002 40
0000UTC 24.08.2020 108 21.3N 75.9W 998 45
1200UTC 24.08.2020 120 22.6N 80.4W 994 45
0000UTC 25.08.2020 132 24.5N 84.1W 994 49
1200UTC 25.08.2020 144 26.7N 87.0W 994 52


.



Way south of FL - through Cuba actually



Sounds like TVCN
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#770 Postby kevin » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:11 pm

12z HMON so far, 993 mbar at 72 hours and further North than the last few runs.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#771 Postby Powellrm » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:19 pm

I think I'm going to have to stop model watching and tune back in after a few days when we have a more developed system and a better feel for the ridging that's happening.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#772 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:26 pm

12z HMON shifted north avoiding most of the islands.

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Last edited by SFLcane on Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#773 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:27 pm

SFLcane wrote:12z HMON shifted north avoiding most of the islands.


Looks like a Cat 3 maybe??

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#774 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:32 pm

Hopefully the NHC can get the Gulfstream out sooner than it did for Isaias to get the models the upper-air data they need... Last month, it took them about two days longer than ideal to get those upper-air missions rolling. IIRC they kept scheduling *possible* G-IV flights and cancelling them.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#775 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:34 pm

That’s a significant jump north on the HMON. We definitely need G-IV data on the ridge along with additional balloon releases if possible.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#776 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:41 pm

HMON closing in on Florida as a Cat 3

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#777 Postby chris_fit » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:42 pm

12Z EURO Running. Expecting a dud.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#778 Postby DestinHurricane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:43 pm

HMON would most likely miss FL

Edit: Thought Andros was the last frame lol. It actually slams cat 3 right into Miami.
Last edited by DestinHurricane on Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#779 Postby caneseddy » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:44 pm

HWRF is Georges Part 2 (going through PR and DR) but not as strong
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#780 Postby caneseddy » Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:46 pm

HMON finishes its run as a major hurricane about to landfall in Miami.

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Last edited by caneseddy on Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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