ATL: LAURA - Models

[toad strangler]

12z Euro slightly more defined wave than at 00z @72hrs. That's not saying much though.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro 72hrs... The HP looks slightly weaker than the 12z run a few days ago when 98L blew up and went E of FL...

[eastcoastFL]

[toad strangler]

12z EURO sends 98L N of the big islands but no development once again through 96hrs

[SFLcane]

Poof on the euro.

[tiger_deF]

If this system ends up forming in the next day or two, it would be a pretty epic bust for King Eurro

[eastcoastFL]

Euro bahama blob

[Shell Mound]

Interesting look from the 12z GEFS Ensembles...

https://i.imgur.com/sG0Bd1o.gif

Note that the strongest members indicate a turn to the NW, N, and eventually NE beginning near the Turks and Caicos Islands. Additionally, ridging on both the 12Z GFS and ECMWF runs is notably weaker than previously indicated. If 98L is sufficiently intense in the short term, it could not only miss the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico to the north, but also curve OTS between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda, after bypassing the Turks and Caicos Islands. I have consistently maintained that 98L will likely become an intense hurricane in about six or seven days, and that it will either a) head WNW into South FL or b) curve OTS. In each case the Turks and Caicos Islands will serve as a key benchmark.

[WeatherEmperor]

Why is the Euro showing nothing if it takes 98L north of the islands avoiding all land interaction? Does it show shear/dry air issues???


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SouthFLTropics]

Call me confused but I just don't see why the Euro wouldn't spin this up if it avoids the big islands. What does it see that we aren't seeing. Maybe dry air. I don't know.

[storminabox]

HMON finishes its run as a major hurricane about to landfall in Miami.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2020081912/hmon_ref_98L_42.png

That would be bad for me considering that I’m studying at the University of Miami. Only 5 days out too if this verifies.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z HWRF is keeping it a hurricane over the high mountainous terrain of Eastern Cuba. That is when you know the model has problems.

[SFLcane]

Why is the Euro showing nothing if it takes 98L north of the islands avoiding all land interaction? Does it show shear/dry air issues???


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Beyond me. But it does it keep it north of the islands now.

[DestinHurricane]

IMHO Euro is out smoking a joint. I'll take the NHC forecast over any model.

[sma10]

Why is the Euro showing nothing if it takes 98L north of the islands avoiding all land interaction? Does it show shear/dry air issues???


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Very odd. The no development in this run really doesnt have much to do with the islands. In fact, the track looks very similar to CMC, ICON, HMON ... but no development at all

[gatorcane]

Call me confused but I just don't see why the Euro wouldn't spin this up if it avoids the big islands. What does it see that we aren't seeing. Maybe dry air. I don't know.

My guess is too much dry and stable air around it. Isaias had the same problem in the Bahamas if you recall. I am just looking at the GFS graphics to take that guess since we don’t have access to the same Euro charts.

[Kazmit]

I think it's highly unlikely this remains an open wave it it misses the islands to the north...

[ConvergenceZone]

The 12Z HWRF is keeping it a hurricane over the high mountainous terrain of Eastern Cuba. That is when you know the model has problems.

And then you have the Euro that’s on crack that doesn’t show ANY land interaction and acts like it’s July and yet doesn’t do anything with it. Some dry air, sure, but not enough to impede development. If we get a depression today and a storm tomorrow, Euro will already be in EPIC failure mode

[caneseddy]

Why is the Euro showing nothing if it takes 98L north of the islands avoiding all land interaction? Does it show shear/dry air issues???


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Beyond me. But it does it keep it north of the islands now.

And I think that should be one of the the key takeaway of these runs. The majority of modeling, including the Euro now have this going north of the islands. Excepting the GFS, HWRF and i believe UKMET

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[SFLcane]

Call me confused but I just don't see why the Euro wouldn't spin this up if it avoids the big islands. What does it see that we aren't seeing. Maybe dry air. I don't know.

My guess is too much dry and stable air around it. Isaias had the same problem in the Bahamas if you recall. I am just looking at the GFS graphics to take that guess since we don’t have access to the same Euro charts.

https://i.postimg.cc/1XPKpn62/gfs-mid-RH-watl-17.png

RH not a problem on the Euro in the Bahamas.