ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Pretty large increase in European ensembles as 98 nears SFL. I just posted in the models thread.

[cycloneye]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98L)

B. 19/1730Z

C. 12.2N

D. 45.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...>2/10 BANDING WAS MEASURED AROUND THE LLCC YIELDING A DT
OF 1.5. THE MET AND PT AGREE AND THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO CLOUD
FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR-CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[Blown Away]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98L)

B. 19/1730Z

C. 12.2N

D. 45.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...>2/10 BANDING WAS MEASURED AROUND THE LLCC YIELDING A DT
OF 1.5. THE MET AND PT AGREE AND THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO CLOUD
FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR-CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

12z = 11.5N
18z = 12.2N

Definitely solid WNW movement.

[Jr0d]

While I think the storm threat level in the Florida Keys is about the same as yesterday, this being a potentially fast storm really makes it more difficult to prepare. If we are impacted, most guidance is showing Tuesday only 6 days away.

My concern is increasing a little but still no classified system to track and very iffy computer models. 6 day forecasts are already notoriously inaccurate.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:WNW

At 1800 UTC, 19 August 2020, LOW INVEST 98 (AL98) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 12.5°N and 45.7°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 15 kt at a bearing of 285 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb.

[TheStormExpert]

Still plenty of shear and mid-level dry air in front of this, SAL is not as bad. Maybe this is why the GFS and Euro are not developing 98L.

[TheStormExpert]

I marked up this graphic for both systems, but it's just as important for 98L, so I'll post it here. I've circled the rough areas where 97L and 98L should be in 96 hrs (97L) and 120 hrs (98L). I didn't go as far with 97L because models are even more iffy than 98L. Assuming 98L stays north of the Greater Antilles, it'll be running through higher and higher SSTs until it reaches 30-31C surface temperatures in the southern Bahamas. If we have a defined TC reach that area, and if the UL environment does turn out to be good, we could quickly have a problem on our hands. Of course, all of this depends on when 98L develops, how fast it's moving (the Euro is too fast for it to become anything significant), whether it hits any of the islands or not, and whether or not it could recurve, and if so, where.
https://i.imgur.com/qOWpiub.png

SST's are definitely not a problem it's other factors like shear and dry air.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1296169767766765568

[SFLcane]

Time for an upgrade!

[DestinHurricane]

Time for an upgrade!

Not quite but we may be 12 hours away right now.

[TheStormExpert]

Time for an upgrade!

Wouldn't surprise me.

 https://twitter.com/HurricaneManWx/status/1296121548890345477

[St0rmTh0r]

Yes this is a depression. There is some strong shear out ahead of it though but this can change quickly just no telling this far out

[TheStormExpert]

Yes this is a depression. There is some strong shear out ahead of it though but this can change quickly just no telling this far out

Supposedly the TUTT is supposed to lift out in time but there still be some shear and of course dry air.

[ColdMiser123]

The storm structure has improved quite a bit from yesterday, and is notably more concentrated. I would wait for any kind of wind pass to confirm a well defined circulation before any kind of upgrade. The pass from this morning showed a pretty broad circulation, interested to see how much has changed since then.

[DestinHurricane]

Do we know when next ASCAT scan will be?

[SFLcane]

Do we know when next ASCAT scan will be?

Around 8pm

[zhukm29]

Do we know when next ASCAT scan will be?

Around 8pm

I hope ASCAT doesn't miss this one, but it is ASCAT...

[St0rmTh0r]

Yes this is a depression. There is some strong shear out ahead of it though but this can change quickly just no telling this far out

Supposedly the TUTT is supposed to lift out in time but there still be some shear and of course dry air.

The Bahamas have always been a notorious area for powerful storms to develop. I dont think itll do much until then but you never know. Hopefully Florida gets spared again.

[tiger_deF]

Convection is building fairly rapidly near the center of the circulation, and new banding features are starting to establish themselves

[AutoPenalti]

Convection remains anemic on the eastern side. Don't think classification is going to happen this afternoon.