ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DestinHurricane]

Convection remains anemic on the eastern side. Don't think classification is going to happen this afternoon.

Actually looks like some convection is about to fire off on the SE side last few frames.

[Javlin]

Looking at this floater from weathernerds looks like this one is not far off from being tagged a TD

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... nitsst=Off

[TheStormExpert]

Yes this is a depression. There is some strong shear out ahead of it though but this can change quickly just no telling this far out

Supposedly the TUTT is supposed to lift out in time but there still be some shear and of course dry air.

The Bahamas have always been a notorious area for powerful storms to develop. I dont think itll do much until then but you never know. Hopefully Florida gets spared again.

The Bahamas especially The Abacos and Grand Bahama Island DO NOT need any more trouble after Dorian last year! Florida's luck will eventually run out but who knows when.

[lhpfish]

I think a few more hours of sustained convection and it should be tagged.i't sreally starting to fire now.

[DestinHurricane]

Doubt they classify without ASCAT

[TheStormExpert]

Looking at this floater from weathernerds looks like this one is not far off from being tagged a TD

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... nitsst=Off

Should be classified this evening, but the NHC might want to see if it persists.

[SouthFLTropics]

If it keeps going the way it is right now I would expect it to get the call sometime soon. DMax should come right at the correct time to give it the juice it needs.


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[eastcoastFL]

Still plenty of shear and mid-level dry air in front of this, SAL is not as bad. Maybe this is why the GFS and Euro are not developing 98L.

https://i.imgur.com/7AXZ0CJ.gif

https://i.imgur.com/MHL9ujj.gif

https://i.imgur.com/qwJyEH8.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/lDZdQLz.jpg

I think a lot of that shear is from the TUTT which is supposed to be clear from the area as 98l moves along

It’s already moving north

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1296175412859592706

[St0rmTh0r]

Supposedly the TUTT is supposed to lift out in time but there still be some shear and of course dry air.

The Bahamas have always been a notorious area for powerful storms to develop. I dont think itll do much until then but you never know. Hopefully Florida gets spared again.

The Bahamas especially The Abacos and Grand Bahama Island DO NOT need any more trouble after Dorian last year! Florida's luck will eventually run out but who knows when.

Well its looking like itll be hard for this to miss. The media coverage itself will create a disaster bigger than the storm.

[eastcoastFL]

The Bahamas have always been a notorious area for powerful storms to develop. I dont think itll do much until then but you never know. Hopefully Florida gets spared again.

The Bahamas especially The Abacos and Grand Bahama Island DO NOT need any more trouble after Dorian last year! Florida's luck will eventually run out but who knows when.

Well its looking like itll be hard for this to miss. The media coverage itself will create a disaster bigger than the storm.

That’s probably the only benefit to it not being classified yet. No storm no hype. The weather channel should have fun with the crap the models are putting out

[TheStormExpert]

The Bahamas have always been a notorious area for powerful storms to develop. I dont think itll do much until then but you never know. Hopefully Florida gets spared again.

The Bahamas especially The Abacos and Grand Bahama Island DO NOT need any more trouble after Dorian last year! Florida's luck will eventually run out but who knows when.

Well its looking like itll be hard for this to miss. The media coverage itself will create a disaster bigger than the storm.

Of course The Weather Channel will make it look like a doomsday storm regardless of its intensity.

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1296175412859592706?s=20

Epic fail more then likely coming from the Euro.

[Buck]

This looks like a TD to me, but wouldn't be surprised if they wait until 2300 to classify.

[eastcoastFL]

I’d say we definitely have a TD at this point

[Evil Jeremy]

I'd personally wait to see if the current "organization" can be sustained for another 6+ hours before upgrading.

[sunnyday]

When should we know if or when the storm should make landfall ?

[SFLcane]

It’s a TD more then likely. Euro certainly missed this structure

[eastcoastFL]

When should we know if or when the storm should make landfall ?

Probably about 3 or 4 days from now

[Javlin]

I'd personally wait to see if the current "organization" can be sustained for another 6+ hours before upgrading.

The NHC probably will but if you look out front of the system shear is almost non-existent.