ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
DestinHurricane
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 935
Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 8:05 am
Location: New York, NY

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#561 Postby DestinHurricane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:54 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Convection remains anemic on the eastern side. Don't think classification is going to happen this afternoon.


Actually looks like some convection is about to fire off on the SE side last few frames.
0 likes   
Michael 2018

Javlin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1620
Age: 64
Joined: Fri Jul 09, 2004 7:58 pm
Location: ms gulf coast

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#562 Postby Javlin » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:56 pm

Looking at this floater from weathernerds looks like this one is not far off from being tagged a TD

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... nitsst=Off
0 likes   

TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#563 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:58 pm

St0rmTh0r wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
St0rmTh0r wrote:Yes this is a depression. There is some strong shear out ahead of it though but this can change quickly just no telling this far out

Supposedly the TUTT is supposed to lift out in time but there still be some shear and of course dry air.

The Bahamas have always been a notorious area for powerful storms to develop. I dont think itll do much until then but you never know. Hopefully Florida gets spared again.

The Bahamas especially The Abacos and Grand Bahama Island DO NOT need any more trouble after Dorian last year! Florida's luck will eventually run out but who knows when.
0 likes   

lhpfish
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 83
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2011 5:01 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#564 Postby lhpfish » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:58 pm

I think a few more hours of sustained convection and it should be tagged.i't sreally starting to fire now.
0 likes   

User avatar
DestinHurricane
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 935
Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 8:05 am
Location: New York, NY

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#565 Postby DestinHurricane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:59 pm

Doubt they classify without ASCAT
0 likes   
Michael 2018

TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#566 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:59 pm

Javlin wrote:Looking at this floater from weathernerds looks like this one is not far off from being tagged a TD

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... nitsst=Off

Should be classified this evening, but the NHC might want to see if it persists.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#567 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:00 pm

If it keeps going the way it is right now I would expect it to get the call sometime soon. DMax should come right at the correct time to give it the juice it needs.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
2 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#568 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:02 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Still plenty of shear and mid-level dry air in front of this, SAL is not as bad. Maybe this is why the GFS and Euro are not developing 98L.

https://i.imgur.com/7AXZ0CJ.gif

https://i.imgur.com/MHL9ujj.gif

https://i.imgur.com/qwJyEH8.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/lDZdQLz.jpg


I think a lot of that shear is from the TUTT which is supposed to be clear from the area as 98l moves along

It’s already moving north
Last edited by eastcoastFL on Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

caneseddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1172
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:31 pm
Location: Plantation, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#569 Postby caneseddy » Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:03 pm

4 likes   

St0rmTh0r
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 369
Joined: Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:04 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#570 Postby St0rmTh0r » Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:04 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
St0rmTh0r wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Supposedly the TUTT is supposed to lift out in time but there still be some shear and of course dry air.

The Bahamas have always been a notorious area for powerful storms to develop. I dont think itll do much until then but you never know. Hopefully Florida gets spared again.

The Bahamas especially The Abacos and Grand Bahama Island DO NOT need any more trouble after Dorian last year! Florida's luck will eventually run out but who knows when.

Well its looking like itll be hard for this to miss. The media coverage itself will create a disaster bigger than the storm.
1 likes   

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#571 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:06 pm

St0rmTh0r wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
St0rmTh0r wrote:The Bahamas have always been a notorious area for powerful storms to develop. I dont think itll do much until then but you never know. Hopefully Florida gets spared again.

The Bahamas especially The Abacos and Grand Bahama Island DO NOT need any more trouble after Dorian last year! Florida's luck will eventually run out but who knows when.

Well its looking like itll be hard for this to miss. The media coverage itself will create a disaster bigger than the storm.


That’s probably the only benefit to it not being classified yet. No storm no hype. The weather channel should have fun with the crap the models are putting out
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#572 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:07 pm

St0rmTh0r wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
St0rmTh0r wrote:The Bahamas have always been a notorious area for powerful storms to develop. I dont think itll do much until then but you never know. Hopefully Florida gets spared again.

The Bahamas especially The Abacos and Grand Bahama Island DO NOT need any more trouble after Dorian last year! Florida's luck will eventually run out but who knows when.

Well its looking like itll be hard for this to miss. The media coverage itself will create a disaster bigger than the storm.

Of course The Weather Channel will make it look like a doomsday storm regardless of its intensity. :roll:
3 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#573 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:08 pm



Epic fail more then likely coming from the Euro.
4 likes   

User avatar
Buck
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1173
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:04 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#574 Postby Buck » Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:12 pm

This looks like a TD to me, but wouldn't be surprised if they wait until 2300 to classify.

Image
7 likes   

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#575 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:12 pm

I’d say we definitely have a TD at this point

Image
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#576 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:14 pm

I'd personally wait to see if the current "organization" can be sustained for another 6+ hours before upgrading.
2 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
sunnyday
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1590
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 8:16 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#577 Postby sunnyday » Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:18 pm

When should we know if or when the storm should make landfall ?
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#578 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:20 pm

It’s a TD more then likely. Euro certainly missed this structure
Last edited by SFLcane on Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#579 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:20 pm

sunnyday wrote:When should we know if or when the storm should make landfall ?


Probably about 3 or 4 days from now
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Javlin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1620
Age: 64
Joined: Fri Jul 09, 2004 7:58 pm
Location: ms gulf coast

Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#580 Postby Javlin » Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:21 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:I'd personally wait to see if the current "organization" can be sustained for another 6+ hours before upgrading.

The NHC probably will but if you look out front of the system shear is almost non-existent.
0 likes   


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests