ATL: LAURA - Models

[Blown Away]

12z GFS-Parallel... Once 98L gets off the islands it's finds fuel to intensify... I think if the GFS were to trend a little N of the islands I think it would intensify... Plus a future runner coming into play after 98L...

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... Circulation consolidated at 42 hours... Slightly N of 12z

[toad strangler]

18z GFS... Circulation consolidated at 42 hours... Slightly N of 12z

@84hrs 18z GFS very slightly N of Hispaniola over 12z with main vort.

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS...It looks like it cleared the islands to the north but like the Euro it just doesn't want to pop. I think it's picking up on dry air and lack of instability. That's the only thing I can see.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS nearly identical to 12Z through 4 days. The model is not budging that is for sure. Take a look at the 200mb winds while 98l is near Eastern Cuba. That does not look favorable at all. You want to see clockwise flow at that level with the light winds on top of the low-level vorticity. That and the system is just moving too fast. In a way the ridge might be too strong which is squashing development before Florida:

[toad strangler]

18z GFS...It looks like it cleared the islands to the north but like the Euro it just doesn't want to pop. I think it's picking up on dry air and lack of instability. That's the only thing I can see.

yep, not much change over 12z through 108hrs

[Evil Jeremy]

I honestly don’t know why people still rely on the global models for intensity guidance 5 days out. Or at all really. Putting aside how horrible all the models have been this year, I’ve always understood the global to be a better guide of track than intensity.

[toad strangler]

18Z GFS nearly identical to 12Z through 4 days. The model is not budging that is for sure. Take a look at the 200mb winds while 98l is near Eastern Cuba. That does not look favorable at all. You want to see clockwise flow at that level with the light winds on top of the low-level vorticity. That and the system is just moving too fast. In a way the ridge might be too strong which is squashing development before Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/PryW6CKH/gfs-uv200-watl-2.png

It's the craziest thing. Many pro mets are confounded all over social media as to why 98L doesn't want to develop in model land. They should probably get with you on this.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS nearly identical to 12Z through 4 days. The model is not budging that is for sure. Take a look at the 200mb winds while 98l is near Eastern Cuba. That does not look favorable at all. You want to see clockwise flow at that level with the light winds on top of the low-level vorticity. That and the system is just moving too fast. In a way the ridge might be too strong which is squashing development before Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/PryW6CKH/gfs-uv200-watl-2.png

The 18Z GFS is actually slightly drier into Florida with this wave at 120 hours. Would love to at least get some rain from this.

[SouthFLTropics]

Remember the good times when the 18z GFS was like a Michael Bay movie instead of a Lifetime or Hallmark Christmas movie?

[eastcoastFL]

This is how nuts the models are... Some don’t even form a storm. Some have a TS, a few cat 1s and 2s and then there’s HMON.

Never mind the wide array of tracks

[sma10]

I honestly don’t know why people still rely on the global models for intensity guidance 5 days out. Or at all really. Putting aside how horrible all the models have been this year, I’ve always understood the global to be a better guide of track than intensity.

You're correct and I don't know why either

[gatorcane]

Not much rain even for South Florida if the 18Z GFS verifies. I am sure the 18Z HWRF and HMON will show a CAT 5 into South Florida They are a bit better if we have a storm with a well-defined center already.

[ConvergenceZone]

18Z GFS nearly identical to 12Z through 4 days. The model is not budging that is for sure. Take a look at the 200mb winds while 98l is near Eastern Cuba. That does not look favorable at all. You want to see clockwise flow at that level with the light winds on top of the low-level vorticity. That and the system is just moving too fast. In a way the ridge might be too strong which is squashing development before Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/PryW6CKH/gfs-uv200-watl-2.png

I guess you missed the posts about the latest EURO ensembles becoming more bullish, which is a sign that the EURO maybe changing its tune

[SouthFLTropics]

18z HMON is running... Let's see what kind of excitement it can generate.

[ConvergenceZone]

So many people worship the GFS and EURO, it’s actually quite comical... No matter how many times they are wrong during this season, they will keep worshiping them

[AxaltaRacing24]

18Z GFS nearly identical to 12Z through 4 days. The model is not budging that is for sure. Take a look at the 200mb winds while 98l is near Eastern Cuba. That does not look favorable at all. You want to see clockwise flow at that level with the light winds on top of the low-level vorticity. That and the system is just moving too fast. In a way the ridge might be too strong which is squashing development before Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/PryW6CKH/gfs-uv200-watl-2.png

I guess you missed the posts about the latest EURO ensembles becoming more bullish, which is a sign that the EURO maybe changing its tune

it goes against the narrative

[jdjaguar]

18Z GFS nearly identical to 12Z through 4 days. The model is not budging that is for sure. Take a look at the 200mb winds while 98l is near Eastern Cuba. That does not look favorable at all. You want to see clockwise flow at that level with the light winds on top of the low-level vorticity. That and the system is just moving too fast. In a way the ridge might be too strong which is squashing development before Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/PryW6CKH/gfs-uv200-watl-2.png

The 18Z GFS is actually slightly drier into Florida with this wave at 120 hours. Would love to at least get some rain from this.

is this sarcasm?
It has rained everyday in August in NFL.
Eyes on both systems.

[sma10]

So many people worship the GFS and EURO, it’s actually quite comical... No matter how many times they are wrong during this season, they will keep worshiping them

What's not to love? They've had a stellar summer

[caneseddy]

Wasn’t the GFS predicting a huge blow up in the EPAC with majors everywhere and nothing would form in the Atlantic? What happened there? Only Genevieve made it to major..

Seriously, as many pro Mets have said today, it maybe better to look at the ensembles rather than the deterministic models at this time and the ensembles are much more bullish on 98l