ATL: LAURA - Models

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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#921 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:01 pm

Looks very CAT5-ish

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#922 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:02 pm

130kt landfall. Also heading for the Gulf.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#923 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:02 pm

Key Largo, 942mb, 130 knots


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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#924 Postby sma10 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:03 pm

HWRF a touch faster so actually does touch down on Aug 24
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#925 Postby EquusStorm » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:03 pm

Hard to believe less than a week ago everyone was asking when the models will even show a closed low somewhere in the tropics, now we have the opposite problem almost overnight
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#926 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:03 pm

:uarrow: Irma without the Cuba... :double:

Well gang, the model stuff has arrived.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#927 Postby canes92 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:04 pm

Doesn't HWRF always show every storm turning into a major hurricane?
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#928 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:04 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Looks very CAT5-ish

Image
That is about as mean looking system we have seen heading towards dade county in awhile
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#929 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:05 pm

Good thing the HWRF is never accurate in terms of intensity this far out.

I do think it's on to something with development of a TC in 24-48 hours, but beyond that nope.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#930 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:05 pm

canes92 wrote:Doesn't HWRF always show every storm turning into a major hurricane?


It has a tendency to oversell cyclones (see: 777mb Mangkhut), but to its credit it was more reserved and pretty much spot-on with Isaias (other than 1 or 2 runs).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#931 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:06 pm

canes92 wrote:Doesn't HWRF always show every storm turning into a major hurricane?

Well it actually just dropped 97L and was never really bullish on it as far as I can remember.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#932 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:07 pm

So the question remains...what does most every other model have that the GFS and Euro are lacking???


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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#933 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:07 pm

I know that its just the HWRF, so we shouldn’t pay attention to it,
but what’s concerning is that it keeps making the storm stronger and stronger
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#934 Postby plasticup » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:09 pm

supercane4867 wrote:130kt landfall. Also heading for the Gulf.

https://i.imgur.com/KiJcfHR.png

https://i.imgur.com/ZOjpjhj.png


Well that’s concerning
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ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#935 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:10 pm

18z HWRF has a major hitting extreme south Florida Monday night

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#936 Postby caneseddy » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:12 pm

Intensity is a crapshoot so we should not focus on it. What we should be concerned is that the majority of model runs and the ensembles, with the exception of GFS operational, have all been in agreement of taking 98L north of the islands without land interaction towards the Bahamas, in their most recent runs. That's what we should be more concerned about, not intensity.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#937 Postby toad strangler » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:14 pm

Andy pours cold water on the 2nd tier of models ...

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1296236633294069761


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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#938 Postby caneseddy » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:16 pm

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1296238975972192257


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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#939 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:18 pm

Does anybody have the 18z Euro??


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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#940 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:19 pm

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WeatherEmperor wrote:Does anybody have the 18z Euro??


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Nada..poof

Waiting on EPS
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