ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 12N46W, about 730 nm to
the east of the Windward Islands. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong from 10N-15N between 46W-50W. The associated
showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization, and
a tropical depression could be forming. The system is expected to
move generally west-northwestward at 15 to 20 kt, and interests
in the northern Leeward Islands should closely monitor its
progress as tropical storm watches could be required as early as
this evening. Formation chance through 48 hours is high. Please
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

[Evil Jeremy]

Now that’s the kind of TWO that strongly suggests a PTC designation at 11pm.

[toad strangler]

11PM genesis?

 http://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/1296238003174727680

[Kazmit]

Now that’s the kind of TWO that strongly suggests a PTC designation at 11pm.

tropical storm watches could be required as early as
this evening.

For sure

[TheStormExpert]

I’m really curious to see what the NHC shows on its first advisory in regards to track and especially intensity. I’d stay up and see but I have work early in the morning.

[SFLcane]

Quite scary...

Yeah if this is a TC near 60W and gets 50+ miles away from Cuba, I don't see any way it ends well with that pattern. You have dual ULL outflow equatorward with a giant anticyclone aloft. It's a nuclear upper pattern.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 43205?s=21

[HuracanMaster]

Who thinks we'll get a TD or PTC at 11?

Its a fact!

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1296238371325521928

[sma10]

The system looks odd to me at the moment. I can't put my finger on it but it doesn't look quite right

[TheStormExpert]

Quite scary...

Yeah if this is a TC near 60W and gets 50+ miles away from Cuba, I don't see any way it ends well with that pattern. You have dual ULL outflow equatorward with a giant anticyclone aloft. It's a nuclear upper pattern.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 43205?s=21

Eric Webb comparing the environment to the one Dorian blew up in!


 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1296238371325521928

[tiger_deF]

The system looks odd to me at the moment. I can't put my finger on it but it doesn't look quite right

Reminds me of a CAG or something you'd see in the WPAC, it's envelope and axis of rotation is immense

[chaser1]

I think it's safe to assume it'll get the PTC tag. I'm not sure there's enough to support that there's an established LLC . On a different note, looking at satellite over the past hour or so.... there may be a newly redeveloping LLC right at about 14.4 N. That would be a bit of a northward jump. Problem is this may simply be the MLC which only suggests against the idea that 98L is any better organized and worthy of TD classification.

[eastcoastFL]

Quite scary...

Yeah if this is a TC near 60W and gets 50+ miles away from Cuba, I don't see any way it ends well with that pattern. You have dual ULL outflow equatorward with a giant anticyclone aloft. It's a nuclear upper pattern.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 43205?s=21

Eric Webb comparing the environment to the one Dorian blew up in!


https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1296238371325521928

That’s no good. I hope for the Bahamas sake it’s out to sea or shredded by the other islands before it amounts to much. Definitely curious how the NHC forecasts this thing once they issue advisories. They’ve got a tough job in the coming days and weeks ahead.

[chaser1]

By the way, when is any flights being planned for (especially the TEAL)

[eastcoastFL]

If the euro and gfs are taking the season off I do not envy the hero’s at the nhc. It’s tough enough for them when they have all of their tools. Does anyone know how they would go about making a 5 day forecast if they can’t rely on any of the models? I know they did it long before models but how accurate were their forecasts back then?

[St0rmTh0r]

Quite scary...

Yeah if this is a TC near 60W and gets 50+ miles away from Cuba, I don't see any way it ends well with that pattern. You have dual ULL outflow equatorward with a giant anticyclone aloft. It's a nuclear upper pattern.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 43205?s=21

Well that's not good news. How the hell is there gonna be a giant anticyclone over the Bahamas?

[eastcoastFL]

By the way, when is any flights being planned for (especially the TEAL)

One is scheduled for tomorrow

[Nimbus]

Doesn't look good with the ridge scenario and favorable conditions in the Bahamas. Check back tomorrow morning and see if the spin up was delayed and the track shifted back south over Hispaniola. They don't need the mud slides but Florida doesn't need the 18Z HWRF solution.

[DestinHurricane]

ASCAT should be coming shortly, correct?

[TheStormExpert]

If the euro and gfs are taking the season off I do not envy the hero’s at the nhc. It’s tough enough for them when they have all of their tools. Does anyone know how they would go about making a 5 day forecast if they can’t rely on any of the models? I know they did it long before models but how accurate were their forecasts back then?

Back then they wouldn’t make more than a 3-day forecast I believe.