ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#661 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:08 pm

A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 12N46W, about 730 nm to
the east of the Windward Islands. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong from 10N-15N between 46W-50W. The associated
showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization, and
a tropical depression could be forming. The system is expected to
move generally west-northwestward at 15 to 20 kt, and interests
in the northern Leeward Islands should closely monitor its
progress as tropical storm watches could be required as early as
this evening. Formation chance through 48 hours is high. Please
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#662 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:15 pm

Now that’s the kind of TWO that strongly suggests a PTC designation at 11pm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#663 Postby toad strangler » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:16 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#664 Postby Kazmit » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:16 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Now that’s the kind of TWO that strongly suggests a PTC designation at 11pm.

tropical storm watches could be required as early as
this evening.


For sure
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#665 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:28 pm

I’m really curious to see what the NHC shows on its first advisory in regards to track and especially intensity. I’d stay up and see but I have work early in the morning.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#666 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:34 pm

Quite scary... :double:

Yeah if this is a TC near 60W and gets 50+ miles away from Cuba, I don't see any way it ends well with that pattern. You have dual ULL outflow equatorward with a giant anticyclone aloft. It's a nuclear upper pattern.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 43205?s=21
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#667 Postby HuracanMaster » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:35 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:Who thinks we'll get a TD or PTC at 11?
Its a fact!

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#668 Postby Keldeo1997 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:38 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#669 Postby sma10 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:39 pm

The system looks odd to me at the moment. I can't put my finger on it but it doesn't look quite right
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#670 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:39 pm

SFLcane wrote:Quite scary... :double:

Yeah if this is a TC near 60W and gets 50+ miles away from Cuba, I don't see any way it ends well with that pattern. You have dual ULL outflow equatorward with a giant anticyclone aloft. It's a nuclear upper pattern.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 43205?s=21

Eric Webb comparing the environment to the one Dorian blew up in!
:double:

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1296238371325521928


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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#671 Postby tiger_deF » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:44 pm

sma10 wrote:The system looks odd to me at the moment. I can't put my finger on it but it doesn't look quite right


Reminds me of a CAG or something you'd see in the WPAC, it's envelope and axis of rotation is immense
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#672 Postby chaser1 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:48 pm

I think it's safe to assume it'll get the PTC tag. I'm not sure there's enough to support that there's an established LLC . On a different note, looking at satellite over the past hour or so.... there may be a newly redeveloping LLC right at about 14.4 N. That would be a bit of a northward jump. Problem is this may simply be the MLC which only suggests against the idea that 98L is any better organized and worthy of TD classification.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#673 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:48 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Quite scary... :double:

Yeah if this is a TC near 60W and gets 50+ miles away from Cuba, I don't see any way it ends well with that pattern. You have dual ULL outflow equatorward with a giant anticyclone aloft. It's a nuclear upper pattern.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 43205?s=21

Eric Webb comparing the environment to the one Dorian blew up in!
:double:

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1296238371325521928



That’s no good. I hope for the Bahamas sake it’s out to sea or shredded by the other islands before it amounts to much. Definitely curious how the NHC forecasts this thing once they issue advisories. They’ve got a tough job in the coming days and weeks ahead.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#674 Postby chaser1 » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:50 pm

By the way, when is any flights being planned for (especially the TEAL)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#675 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:51 pm

If the euro and gfs are taking the season off I do not envy the hero’s at the nhc. It’s tough enough for them when they have all of their tools. Does anyone know how they would go about making a 5 day forecast if they can’t rely on any of the models? I know they did it long before models but how accurate were their forecasts back then?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#676 Postby St0rmTh0r » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:51 pm

SFLcane wrote:Quite scary... :double:

Yeah if this is a TC near 60W and gets 50+ miles away from Cuba, I don't see any way it ends well with that pattern. You have dual ULL outflow equatorward with a giant anticyclone aloft. It's a nuclear upper pattern.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 43205?s=21

Well that's not good news. How the hell is there gonna be a giant anticyclone over the Bahamas?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#677 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:51 pm

chaser1 wrote:By the way, when is any flights being planned for (especially the TEAL)


One is scheduled for tomorrow
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#678 Postby Nimbus » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:54 pm

Doesn't look good with the ridge scenario and favorable conditions in the Bahamas. Check back tomorrow morning and see if the spin up was delayed and the track shifted back south over Hispaniola. They don't need the mud slides but Florida doesn't need the 18Z HWRF solution.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#679 Postby DestinHurricane » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:55 pm

ASCAT should be coming shortly, correct?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#680 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:55 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:If the euro and gfs are taking the season off I do not envy the hero’s at the nhc. It’s tough enough for them when they have all of their tools. Does anyone know how they would go about making a 5 day forecast if they can’t rely on any of the models? I know they did it long before models but how accurate were their forecasts back then?

Back then they wouldn’t make more than a 3-day forecast I believe.
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