ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

98L INVEST 200820 0000 12.9N 47.1W ATL 30 1008

[sma10]

If the euro and gfs are taking the season off I do not envy the hero’s at the nhc. It’s tough enough for them when they have all of their tools. Does anyone know how they would go about making a 5 day forecast if they can’t rely on any of the models? I know they did it long before models but how accurate were their forecasts back then?

You ever hear that old timey expression "those hurricanes - they have a mind of their own!" ... That was pre-model forecasting

[tiger_deF]

00z Best Track:

98L INVEST 200820 0000 12.9N 47.1W ATL 30 1008

This may not mean much but the pressure has dropped from 1009 earlier in the evening

[eastcoastFL]

If the euro and gfs are taking the season off I do not envy the hero’s at the nhc. It’s tough enough for them when they have all of their tools. Does anyone know how they would go about making a 5 day forecast if they can’t rely on any of the models? I know they did it long before models but how accurate were their forecasts back then?

Back then they wouldn’t make more than a 3-day forecast I believe.

I actually miss the days of the 3 day cone.

[eastcoastFL]

If the euro and gfs are taking the season off I do not envy the hero’s at the nhc. It’s tough enough for them when they have all of their tools. Does anyone know how they would go about making a 5 day forecast if they can’t rely on any of the models? I know they did it long before models but how accurate were their forecasts back then?

You ever hear that old timey expression "those hurricanes - they have a mind of their own!" ... That was pre-model forecasting

Lol. I still feel that way when they hop around Hispaniola and Cuba as if it’s intentional

[psyclone]

I enjoy looking for other forecast products where folks are forced to make a call on where 98l and its sensible wx are headed before official products are issued from the NHC. Accordingly, take a look at the day 4-7 maps from the wpc. they take the system on the northside of the GA, through the florida straits and northward in the eastern gulf toward panama city.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day4nav_color.html
in addition the latest qpf outlook is very juicy over fl and the gulf, east weighted.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1597885230
Perhaps we just end up with a big, wet, Fay (2008) style tropical storm here? I'd bet on some version of that over nothing or a big hurricane although most anything is on the table.

[eastcoastFL]

I enjoy looking for other forecast products where folks are forced to make a call on where 98l and its sensible wx are headed before official products are issued from the NHC. Accordingly, take a look at the day 4-7 maps from the wpc. they take the system on the northside of the GA, through the florida straits and northward in the eastern gulf toward panama city.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day4nav_color.html
in addition the latest qpf outlook is very juicy over fl and the gulf, east weighted.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1597885230
Perhaps we just end up with a big, wet, Fay (2008) style tropical storm here? I'd bet on some version of that over nothing or a big hurricane although most anything is on the table.

Man that drenches the whole state. I like that idea. I usually check my nws long term cast but it doesn’t give you much info this far out. Here’s what my local forecast discussion says:

Sunday-Wednesday...Forecast continues to hinge on the potential TC
development of a strong central Atlantic tropical wave and its WNW
track south of the strong ridge near and offshore Florida and the SE
CONUS. Differences remain in both the timing of the system`s closest
point of approach, and the attendant increase in moisture. Latest
op-runs show the ECM faster/weaker, and the GFS slower/stronger.
Have hedged POPs slightly lower for Sunday, as winds will back to
easterly by then. Rain chances then increase to (at least) likely
Mon-Tue with the passage of the wave, or whatever form it happens to
take. Slightly lower rain chances expected Wed compared to Mon-Tue,
albeit Mon and/or Tue may need to be increased in later forecasts.

[Aric Dunn]

Appears from a couple SCAT images that are 4 hours old .. are showing it is still elongated. we need a good burst of convection under that MLC.


still 3 more SCAT images to go. So we will see what they all say.

[cycloneye]

Looking very good.

[Kazmit]

Looking very good.

https://i.imgur.com/2DIurT8.jpg

Looks very menacing. Huge too.

[toad strangler]

Looking very good.

https://i.imgur.com/2DIurT8.jpg

Huge

[robbielyn]

Watch Levi Cowans video. He explains why Euro and GFS may verify

[tiger_deF]

Looking very good.

https://i.imgur.com/2DIurT8.jpg

Looks very menacing. Huge too.

Isaias, 98L, tis the season of gigantic elongated godzilla waves crossing the central Atlantic

[wxman57]

If the euro and gfs are taking the season off I do not envy the hero’s at the nhc. It’s tough enough for them when they have all of their tools. Does anyone know how they would go about making a 5 day forecast if they can’t rely on any of the models? I know they did it long before models but how accurate were their forecasts back then?

Back then they wouldn’t make more than a 3-day forecast I believe.

I actually miss the days of the 3 day cone.

The cone did not exist when I started in 1980. Time for it to go away, though. It is pretty much useless now. Doesn't indicate current track uncertainty or impact potential. Perhaps a "cone" based on model ensembles that changes throughout the life of the storm and changes in size according to the size of the predicted wind field?

[wxman57]

Watch Levi Cowans video. He explains why Euro and GFS may verify

I agree. Excellent discussion by Levi: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vI1jrZkGoY&t=0s

[DestinHurricane]

Watched levi's video. He is pretty bearish on 98L. More bearish than the NHC.

[SFLcane]

All bark no bite... just yet

[toad strangler]

Watch Levi Cowans video. He explains why Euro and GFS may verify

Yes, that's what he said as far as 98L's approach to the Leewards. However, what you left out were his comments about nearly "ideal" conditions IN THE EVENT 98L finds itslef NORTH of the big islands. Re-watch that my friend.

[toad strangler]

Watched levi's video. He is pretty bearish on 98L. More bearish than the NHC.

Wrong. See my post above.

[ConvergenceZone]

Watch Levi Cowans video. He explains why Euro and GFS may verify

I agree. Excellent discussion by Levi: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vI1jrZkGoY&t=0s

levi's very bright. He does seem bearish though on this developing at all IF it doesn't find itself in the right environment..........Who knows, he may end up being right. He's highly educated and working on his PhD in Tropical Meteorology. So the man knows his stuff...