ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[ouragans]

So recon flies into 97L first before td13..

there is a distinct possibility that 97L may go straight to TS. and would become laura

I do think so. 97L has much better conditions now than DT13. I won't buy the PTC solution, neither DT14. My point is straight to TS, before DT13 is upgraded

[Cataegis96]

Nice area of upper level divergence colocated with the deepest convection and developing COC. Another indicator of a well placed upper level anticyclone.

[TallyTracker]

It’s looking good on visible satellite this morning. But the big question with these waves is always what’s under the hood? I see evidence of a closed low level circulation with westward moving low level clouds on the southern flank, but it’s hard to tell. I believe Dolly 2010 was a good example of a wave that looked great on satellite, but took days to develop a closed circulation.

[Steve]

I don't ever recall two TCs being in the gulf simultaneously, has that happened before?

Seems like it’s happened a few times over the years but I can’t cite an example. I don’t remember if Hermine and Georges were or not which might be the last time. But I can’t remember.

[gfsperpendicular]

I don't ever recall two TCs being in the gulf simultaneously, has that happened before?

Seems like it’s happened a few times over the years but I can’t cite an example. I don’t remember if Hermine and Georges were or not which might be the last time. But I can’t remember.

I think Bonnie and Charley in 2004 were in the gulf at the same time, but Bonnie might've been a depression by the time Charley entered. Can't think of any more recent ones off the top of my head.

[Nancy Smar]

AL142020 - Tropical Depression INVEST

[zhukm29]

AL142020 - Tropical Depression INVEST

Looks increasingly likely this this may steal Laura simply because recon will be going in first (TD13 won't get recon until tonight). Looks like Marco will be the one axed from the list this year if a few TD13 model runs verify (RIP Marco and Polo).

[Laminar]

How much of a recurring factor is the Rossby Wave? I don’t recall us talking this much about it for the last five or six years. Is it different to a usual season in its positioning? Would appreciate some knowledge if anyone wants to share!

[cainjamin]

Looks like we have TD 14. Now it will be a race for who gets to be named Laura. My money is on TD 14!

[DorkyMcDorkface]

AL142020 - Tropical Depression INVEST

Can confirm on RAMMB. Last night had a similar situation with TD13 (formerly 98L) and it ended up getting upgraded shortly afterwards.

[GCANE]

Strong convection with heavy lightning along the dryline.
Advancing into the dry slot.
I expect the dry air should be washed out within 24 hrs.

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 14, 2020082012, , BEST, 0, 150N, 790W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOURTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 027, TRANSITIONED, alB72020 to al142020,

[cycloneye]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located in the Caribbean Sea, at 11 AM EDT (1500 UTC).

[Aric Dunn]

Td 14 it is.. now lets see if recon finds a TS in a couple hours.

[xironman]

How much of a recurring factor is the Rossby Wave? I don’t recall us talking this much about it for the last five or six years. Is it different to a usual season in its positioning? Would appreciate some knowledge if anyone wants to share!

The longwave weather pattern is a Rossby wave, as opposed to shortwaves. https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/longshort

[GCANE]

A building Theta-E ridge to the NW.
Tracking into one of these and RI is very likely.
Stay tuned.

[PTrackerLA]

Oh boy did not expect this so soon, August 20th has done it's magic. Anxious to see what NHC does with the track/intensity.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Two missed genesis forecasts by the ECMWF in a single day.

Not a good look for the model.

14L looks well organized, too.

[wxman57]

I'll say this TD Fourteen looks much more impressive than TD Thirteen. I'm not sure if Thirteen has an LLC. It's really sucking in a lot of dry dusty air.

[GCANE]

PV Streamer from the TUTT will likely shred TD13 and enhance ventilation for TD14.
The streamer is taking a really deep dive south.
I thought it would develop a couple days ago but not go this far south.
If we start seeing a strong poleward outflow channel on TD14 kick in, it is very likely the lid comes off.
Especially if the theta-e ridge holds up.
Strong convection is already firing off in it.