ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

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ouragans
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#421 Postby ouragans » Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:35 am

Aric Dunn wrote:So recon flies into 97L first before td13..

there is a distinct possibility that 97L may go straight to TS. and would become laura

I do think so. 97L has much better conditions now than DT13. I won't buy the PTC solution, neither DT14. My point is straight to TS, before DT13 is upgraded
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#422 Postby Cataegis96 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:36 am

Image

Nice area of upper level divergence colocated with the deepest convection and developing COC. Another indicator of a well placed upper level anticyclone.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#423 Postby TallyTracker » Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:38 am

It’s looking good on visible satellite this morning. But the big question with these waves is always what’s under the hood? I see evidence of a closed low level circulation with westward moving low level clouds on the southern flank, but it’s hard to tell. I believe Dolly 2010 was a good example of a wave that looked great on satellite, but took days to develop a closed circulation.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#424 Postby Steve » Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:43 am

Kazmit wrote:I don't ever recall two TCs being in the gulf simultaneously, has that happened before?


Seems like it’s happened a few times over the years but I can’t cite an example. I don’t remember if Hermine and Georges were or not which might be the last time. But I can’t remember.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#425 Postby gfsperpendicular » Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:56 am

Steve wrote:
Kazmit wrote:I don't ever recall two TCs being in the gulf simultaneously, has that happened before?


Seems like it’s happened a few times over the years but I can’t cite an example. I don’t remember if Hermine and Georges were or not which might be the last time. But I can’t remember.


I think Bonnie and Charley in 2004 were in the gulf at the same time, but Bonnie might've been a depression by the time Charley entered. Can't think of any more recent ones off the top of my head.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#426 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:57 am

AL142020 - Tropical Depression INVEST
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#427 Postby zhukm29 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:05 am

Nancy Smar wrote:
AL142020 - Tropical Depression INVEST


Looks increasingly likely this this may steal Laura simply because recon will be going in first (TD13 won't get recon until tonight). Looks like Marco will be the one axed from the list this year if a few TD13 model runs verify (RIP Marco and Polo). :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#428 Postby Laminar » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:05 am

How much of a recurring factor is the Rossby Wave? I don’t recall us talking this much about it for the last five or six years. Is it different to a usual season in its positioning? Would appreciate some knowledge if anyone wants to share!
Last edited by Laminar on Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#429 Postby cainjamin » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:06 am

Looks like we have TD 14. Now it will be a race for who gets to be named Laura. My money is on TD 14!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#430 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:10 am

Nancy Smar wrote:
AL142020 - Tropical Depression INVEST

Can confirm on RAMMB. Last night had a similar situation with TD13 (formerly 98L) and it ended up getting upgraded shortly afterwards.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#431 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:13 am

Strong convection with heavy lightning along the dryline.
Advancing into the dry slot.
I expect the dry air should be washed out within 24 hrs.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#432 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:16 am

AL, 14, 2020082012, , BEST, 0, 150N, 790W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOURTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 027, TRANSITIONED, alB72020 to al142020,
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#433 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:18 am

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located in the Caribbean Sea, at 11 AM EDT (1500 UTC).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#434 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:18 am

Td 14 it is.. now lets see if recon finds a TS in a couple hours.
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#435 Postby xironman » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:18 am

Laminar wrote:How much of a recurring factor is the Rossby Wave? I don’t recall us talking this much about it for the last five or six years. Is it different to a usual season in its positioning? Would appreciate some knowledge if anyone wants to share!


The longwave weather pattern is a Rossby wave, as opposed to shortwaves. https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/longshort
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#436 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:21 am

A building Theta-E ridge to the NW.
Tracking into one of these and RI is very likely.
Stay tuned.

Image
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#437 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:27 am

Oh boy did not expect this so soon, August 20th has done it's magic. Anxious to see what NHC does with the track/intensity.
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#438 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:33 am

Two missed genesis forecasts by the ECMWF in a single day.

Not a good look for the model.

14L looks well organized, too.

Image
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#439 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:35 am

I'll say this TD Fourteen looks much more impressive than TD Thirteen. I'm not sure if Thirteen has an LLC. It's really sucking in a lot of dry dusty air.
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#440 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:40 am

PV Streamer from the TUTT will likely shred TD13 and enhance ventilation for TD14.
The streamer is taking a really deep dive south.
I thought it would develop a couple days ago but not go this far south.
If we start seeing a strong poleward outflow channel on TD14 kick in, it is very likely the lid comes off.
Especially if the theta-e ridge holds up.
Strong convection is already firing off in it.
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