ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1701 Postby Cat5James » Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:08 pm

Kazmit wrote:
HurricaneEnzo wrote:New center 59.5W 17N ? Boy that will throw a monkey wrench in some stuff.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... roduct=vis

How would an east center relocation affect its path?

It would affect the timing which would in turn affect the ridging in place... which could either drive it farther south or north depending on the strength of the ridge
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1702 Postby ThetaE » Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:09 pm

gfsperpendicular wrote:
HurricaneEnzo wrote:New center 59.5W 17N ? Boy that will throw a monkey wrench in some stuff.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... roduct=vis


I think you're right and that's almost 1.5 degrees east of the 2pm advisory position (but coincides well with the mid-level vorticity). That would give it a lot more time to gain latitude before reaching the GAs (and Florida).


Yeah, an eastward reformation puts Laura in a better position to avoid the Greater Antilles, and also makes Laura a better organized system.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1703 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:10 pm

Not a look of a developing TC. Degraded satellite appearance since recon left.

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1704 Postby Cat5James » Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:11 pm

Ive taken the stance of waiting to see how it interacts with PR/Hispanola before trying to guess where this system will end up/ how strong it will be... until then we are all just guessing (including the models).
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1705 Postby jaxfladude » Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:11 pm

Bones, please come, and make an appearance!
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1706 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:12 pm

SFLcane wrote:Not a look of a developing TC. Degraded satellite appearance since recon left.

https://i.imgur.com/BOO3sJ7.gif

Looks like convection blowing up on the east side. I've seen some posts here saying that they are expecting a center Reformation on that side.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1707 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:14 pm

SFLcane wrote:Not a look of a developing TC. Degraded satellite appearance since recon left.

https://i.imgur.com/BOO3sJ7.gif

Center reformation likely taking place.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1708 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:15 pm

Wow! This is looking horrible. Convection really waning.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1709 Postby stormwatcher95 » Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:15 pm

SFLcane wrote:Not a look of a developing TC. Degraded satellite appearance since recon left.

https://i.imgur.com/BOO3sJ7.gif

Yeah, struggling at the moment.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 AUG 2020 Time : 172021 UTC
Lat : 17:03:22 N Lon : 60:48:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 995.1mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.5 2.1

Center Temp : -9.0C Cloud Region Temp : -39.6C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.38 ARC in MD GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.60 ARC in MD GRAY
at Lat: 16:38:59 N Lon: 60:48:36 W

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 130nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES16
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.9 degrees
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ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1710 Postby Sanibel » Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:15 pm

I personally would not commit to the re-location...It is possible recon found the southern limit of an elongated center...

Tried to tell people yesterday to not underplay this...

In my opinion there is every possibility of island interaction jerking the center back to yesterday's like Isaias...
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1711 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:15 pm

Eastern portion of the storm 'looks' to be organizing. I'll withhold final judgement until the trends continue longer :lol:
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1712 Postby HurricaneEdouard » Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:20 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:If it goes down the middle of the cone, it’s toast, a goner! A barely established tropical storm will fall apart even with that much partial land interaction,

This is not true. Hispaniola is called "The Shredder" because it shreds well-established systems, either killing them or permanently disrupting their core preventing them from strengthening over the Gulf (e.g. Georges in 1998, which, like Gustav and Ike in 2008, could never reorganise past Category 2 in the Gulf). As we have seen with Isaias and multiple storms in the past, interaction with the Greater Antilles can have negligible effect on (or even help develop, due to frictional forces) weak tropical storms. Category 4 Hurricane Frederic in 1979 is an excellent example of a tropical storm dragging itself over every island of the Greater Antilles (Cuba twice, even), and becoming a hurricane the second it touched the Gulf.

If Laura is still disorganised by the time it reaches Hispaniola, it actually has a higher chance of surviving (particularly if it's so disorganised a new centre can easily reform).
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1713 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:20 pm

psyclone wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:You can tell when a Florida landfall probably decreases, as this forum gets much less active. Tons of folks from Florida on here

That's definitely part of it. But beyond that there are bigger forces at work when a storm in zeroing in on a location. it's rather fascinating to watch and you'll see it in action this season
A.) as a storm heads for an area and it becomes clear more areas are off the hook, people in those areas peel off. most folks only have an interest in a storm that poses some risk to them. (that's not a knock..it makes sense people are interested in their area)
B.) those still in the hot zone need to get off message boards and secure their property. so many of those folks peel off for a different reason.

The net effect can be a message board that gets rather quiet as a storm makes landfall. It's counterintuitive until you think about it and then it makes perfect sense. I personally take extended outlooks with a big grain of salt...even from the pros. it isn't a knock on them, we're just not good enough. extended outlooks on Dorian showed a high probability of significant impacts for me. thankfully it didn't happen. I was in the hot zone on the early outlooks for this year's storm I. again zilch. This one also looks like an extended swing and a miss. We will see. The net effect for me is to take extended outlooks with a big grain of salt. We will see what Laura does. the shredder is less of a risk when there's nothing to shred and we have plenty of examples of disturbances that transited the GA and went on to become something significant thereafter. For me the takeaway is this...we do not need a long runway to build a significant storm in peak season.


Well said. For me personally I’m glued to it if there’s a high chance it could effect me and my family so I can decide what our plan of action is going to be. If it becomes clear that there’s no longer time to watch and see then I move into preparation mode and return afterwards. If becomes clear that it’s no longer a threat then it’s back to work and normal life and I’ll keep tracking but not as intently (or as if my life depended on it).
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1714 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:25 pm

SFLcane wrote:Not a look of a developing TC. Degraded satellite appearance since recon left.

https://i.imgur.com/BOO3sJ7.gif


Looks about on par with the HWRF forecast for this point in time.

Image



It shouldn’t really start looking any better until tomorrow if it’s going to. Kind of a big change but these things do that sometimes

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1715 Postby Kazmit » Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:26 pm

Convection is waning on the western side and increasing on the eastern side. It looks terrible, yes, but it looks more like it's reorganizing than falling apart.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1716 Postby PandaCitrus » Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:28 pm

I will add there is usually a great deal interest in historic and strong type storms regardless of location. Any landfalling Category 4/5 usually sees an uptick in interest for the "disaster movie" and tornado chaser type folks who like to watch chaser and extreme damage videos.

eastcoastFL wrote:
psyclone wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:You can tell when a Florida landfall probably decreases, as this forum gets much less active. Tons of folks from Florida on here

That's definitely part of it. But beyond that there are bigger forces at work when a storm in zeroing in on a location. it's rather fascinating to watch and you'll see it in action this season
A.) as a storm heads for an area and it becomes clear more areas are off the hook, people in those areas peel off. most folks only have an interest in a storm that poses some risk to them. (that's not a knock..it makes sense people are interested in their area)
B.) those still in the hot zone need to get off message boards and secure their property. so many of those folks peel off for a different reason.

The net effect can be a message board that gets rather quiet as a storm makes landfall. It's counterintuitive until you think about it and then it makes perfect sense. I personally take extended outlooks with a big grain of salt...even from the pros. it isn't a knock on them, we're just not good enough. extended outlooks on Dorian showed a high probability of significant impacts for me. thankfully it didn't happen. I was in the hot zone on the early outlooks for this year's storm I. again zilch. This one also looks like an extended swing and a miss. We will see. The net effect for me is to take extended outlooks with a big grain of salt. We will see what Laura does. the shredder is less of a risk when there's nothing to shred and we have plenty of examples of disturbances that transited the GA and went on to become something significant thereafter. For me the takeaway is this...we do not need a long runway to build a significant storm in peak season.


Well said. For me personally I’m glued to it if there’s a high chance it could effect me and my family so I can decide what our plan of action is going to be. If it becomes clear that there’s no longer time to watch and see then I move into preparation mode and return afterwards. If becomes clear that it’s no longer a threat then it’s back to work and normal life and I’ll keep tracking but not as intently (or as if my life depended on it).
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1717 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:43 pm

Keep an eye out for a center reformation closer to the mid-level vortex, on the east side of the system:

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1296872916987064320


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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1718 Postby ColdMiser123 » Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:44 pm

The convection firing on the far eastern side of the system is related to the mid-level vorticity that thus far has been displaced southeastward of the main low-level spin due to the mid-level shear in place.

Any kind of low level center reformation eastward gets the system better vertically aligned, as well as more room for it to cross the islands just to the north. Recon in these situations is invaluable to have.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1719 Postby Lance » Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:45 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:The convection firing on the far eastern side of the system is related to the mid-level vorticity that thus far has been displaced southeastward of the main low-level spin due to the mid-level shear in place.

Any kind of low level center reformation eastward gets the system better vertically aligned, as well as more room for it to cross the islands just to the north. Recon in these situations is invaluable to have.


What would that do to the track (potentially of course)? Also, are we sure that HP to the East of FL is that strong? (newbie questions I know)
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1720 Postby drezee » Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:46 pm

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