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Kazmit wrote:HurricaneEnzo wrote:New center 59.5W 17N ? Boy that will throw a monkey wrench in some stuff.
https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... roduct=vis
How would an east center relocation affect its path?
gfsperpendicular wrote:HurricaneEnzo wrote:New center 59.5W 17N ? Boy that will throw a monkey wrench in some stuff.
https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... roduct=vis
I think you're right and that's almost 1.5 degrees east of the 2pm advisory position (but coincides well with the mid-level vorticity). That would give it a lot more time to gain latitude before reaching the GAs (and Florida).
SFLcane wrote:Not a look of a developing TC. Degraded satellite appearance since recon left.
https://i.imgur.com/BOO3sJ7.gif
SFLcane wrote:Not a look of a developing TC. Degraded satellite appearance since recon left.
https://i.imgur.com/BOO3sJ7.gif
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SFLcane wrote:Not a look of a developing TC. Degraded satellite appearance since recon left.
https://i.imgur.com/BOO3sJ7.gif
ConvergenceZone wrote:If it goes down the middle of the cone, it’s toast, a goner! A barely established tropical storm will fall apart even with that much partial land interaction,
psyclone wrote:ConvergenceZone wrote:You can tell when a Florida landfall probably decreases, as this forum gets much less active. Tons of folks from Florida on here
That's definitely part of it. But beyond that there are bigger forces at work when a storm in zeroing in on a location. it's rather fascinating to watch and you'll see it in action this season
A.) as a storm heads for an area and it becomes clear more areas are off the hook, people in those areas peel off. most folks only have an interest in a storm that poses some risk to them. (that's not a knock..it makes sense people are interested in their area)
B.) those still in the hot zone need to get off message boards and secure their property. so many of those folks peel off for a different reason.
The net effect can be a message board that gets rather quiet as a storm makes landfall. It's counterintuitive until you think about it and then it makes perfect sense. I personally take extended outlooks with a big grain of salt...even from the pros. it isn't a knock on them, we're just not good enough. extended outlooks on Dorian showed a high probability of significant impacts for me. thankfully it didn't happen. I was in the hot zone on the early outlooks for this year's storm I. again zilch. This one also looks like an extended swing and a miss. We will see. The net effect for me is to take extended outlooks with a big grain of salt. We will see what Laura does. the shredder is less of a risk when there's nothing to shred and we have plenty of examples of disturbances that transited the GA and went on to become something significant thereafter. For me the takeaway is this...we do not need a long runway to build a significant storm in peak season.
SFLcane wrote:Not a look of a developing TC. Degraded satellite appearance since recon left.
https://i.imgur.com/BOO3sJ7.gif
eastcoastFL wrote:psyclone wrote:ConvergenceZone wrote:You can tell when a Florida landfall probably decreases, as this forum gets much less active. Tons of folks from Florida on here
That's definitely part of it. But beyond that there are bigger forces at work when a storm in zeroing in on a location. it's rather fascinating to watch and you'll see it in action this season
A.) as a storm heads for an area and it becomes clear more areas are off the hook, people in those areas peel off. most folks only have an interest in a storm that poses some risk to them. (that's not a knock..it makes sense people are interested in their area)
B.) those still in the hot zone need to get off message boards and secure their property. so many of those folks peel off for a different reason.
The net effect can be a message board that gets rather quiet as a storm makes landfall. It's counterintuitive until you think about it and then it makes perfect sense. I personally take extended outlooks with a big grain of salt...even from the pros. it isn't a knock on them, we're just not good enough. extended outlooks on Dorian showed a high probability of significant impacts for me. thankfully it didn't happen. I was in the hot zone on the early outlooks for this year's storm I. again zilch. This one also looks like an extended swing and a miss. We will see. The net effect for me is to take extended outlooks with a big grain of salt. We will see what Laura does. the shredder is less of a risk when there's nothing to shred and we have plenty of examples of disturbances that transited the GA and went on to become something significant thereafter. For me the takeaway is this...we do not need a long runway to build a significant storm in peak season.
Well said. For me personally I’m glued to it if there’s a high chance it could effect me and my family so I can decide what our plan of action is going to be. If it becomes clear that there’s no longer time to watch and see then I move into preparation mode and return afterwards. If becomes clear that it’s no longer a threat then it’s back to work and normal life and I’ll keep tracking but not as intently (or as if my life depended on it).
ColdMiser123 wrote:The convection firing on the far eastern side of the system is related to the mid-level vorticity that thus far has been displaced southeastward of the main low-level spin due to the mid-level shear in place.
Any kind of low level center reformation eastward gets the system better vertically aligned, as well as more room for it to cross the islands just to the north. Recon in these situations is invaluable to have.
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