ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[ThetaE]

Honestly I like the look of TD 14 more than Laura. Laura has gross structural problems to work out. This has a clear LLC which has had shallow (and some attempted deep) convection really fill in over the last few hours. And flipping through the SSEC 925-500mb vorticity plots shows that TD 14 is far better stacked than Laura. I have a feeling this storm will begin to intensify over the next 24 hours, and the more it continues to drift north, the less interaction with Yucatan.

[MGC]

TD14 appears to have established a singular circulation center north-east of Roatan Island. Looks to be moving towards the NNW with convection starting to form near the center. Should start to ramp up and should be a TS by the time of landfall along the Yucatan near Cozumel......MGC

[HurricaneEnzo]

That trough is still digging. At what point is it supposed to start weakening? Doesn't look like 14 has a whole lot of time left to work with.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[davidiowx]

That trough is still digging. At what point is it supposed to start weakening? Doesn't look like 14 has a whole lot of time left to work with.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

I’m no expert but it looks to me the trough is shifting NE fairly quickly. And the dry air is being pushed out to the W of the Yucatan.

[HurricaneEnzo]

That trough is still digging. At what point is it supposed to start weakening? Doesn't look like 14 has a whole lot of time left to work with.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

I’m no expert but it looks to me the trough is shifting NE fairly quickly. And the dry air is being pushed out to the W of the Yucatan.

Yeah you may be right on that. I looked at a different loop that seems to be the case.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Need this storm to stay remain as a depression when it hits the Yucatan.

[xironman]

Looks like convection is finally building near the center. It has a huge job to wipe out the patch of low level dry air, and it seems close to doing that.

[aspen]

TD14 has had some improvements today, and changes that are going to really mess up track and intensity forecasts.

The original center was located just NE of a half-ring of convection that was sitting around the Central American coast. However, that center has been migrating north towards the convection that popped up closer to Cuba. The CA convection has collapsed, and on its beeline to the north, the swirl has been obscured by some small batches of convection. This due north motion might continue until the convection and CoC are aligned, so now a path between the Yucatán Peninsula and Cuba is a growing possibility. This would reduce land interaction, but I don’t know if a more N path would put TD14 into more or less favorable conditions in the Gulf of Mexico. SSTs are going to be 29-31 C regardless of where it goes.

[LSU Saint]

Is this beginning to shy away from a beeline to Houston?

[northjaxpro]

That trough is still digging. At what point is it supposed to start weakening? Doesn't look like 14 has a whole lot of time left to work with.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

This ìs a very anomalously deep trough for August into the Western and Central GOM.

[lrak]

Is this beginning to shy away from a beeline to Houston?

All of our local METS are saying still keep an eye on it due to uncertainty. So stay "tuned" LOL...not sure if they are saying that for the local commercials. $$$

Something to due with where the future high pressure will be located as it approaches. Hanna got squashed during the approach and went due west or WSW for a while before landfall.

[SoupBone]

Is this beginning to shy away from a beeline to Houston?

All of our local METS are saying still keep an eye on it due to uncertainty. So stay "tuned" LOL...not sure if they are saying that for the local commercials. $$$

That's because there are solutions all over from Tex/Mex to Central Lousiana still. No one knows basically.

[lrak]

Is this beginning to shy away from a beeline to Houston?

All of our local METS are saying still keep an eye on it due to uncertainty. So stay "tuned" LOL...not sure if they are saying that for the local commercials. $$$

That's because there are solutions all over from Tex/Mex to Central Lousiana still. No one knows basically.

OH NO....I thought I could relax....thanks for the heads up SoupBone!!! Just want surf and rain no damage...keeping fingers crossed.

[SoupBone]

All of our local METS are saying still keep an eye on it due to uncertainty. So stay "tuned" LOL...not sure if they are saying that for the local commercials. $$$

That's because there are solutions all over from Tex/Mex to Central Lousiana still. No one knows basically.

OH NO....I thought I could relax....thanks for the heads up SoupBone!!! Just want surf and rain no damage...keeping fingers crossed.

You need to head to the models thread.

GFS shows a Tex/Mex sloppy system, HMON/HWRF shows some Central Lousiana action, and the Euro shows sloppy mess for Corpus Christi.

[Nederlander]

Looking better by the hour. Convection bubbling right over the llc and trying to get it’s CDO established. Could make a run at a Hurricane prior to Cozumel/Yucatán if the trend continues - it is getting into some pretty warm water.

[lrak]

That's because there are solutions all over from Tex/Mex to Central Lousiana still. No one knows basically.

OH NO....I thought I could relax....thanks for the heads up SoupBone!!! Just want surf and rain no damage...keeping fingers crossed.

You need to head to the models thread.

GFS shows a Tex/Mex sloppy system, HMON/HWRF shows some Central Lousiana action, and the Euro shows sloppy mess for Corpus Christi.

Craziness....if these models are correct then I will continue to monitor over the weekend. Already patched my board so "she's" water tight now.

Visited Tropical Tidbits and WOW absolutely correct SoupBone!!!!

[HoustonFrog]

Why are there so many more posts in the Laura threads than this one? Just curious

[ATCcane]

Why are there so many more posts in the Laura threads than this one? Just curious

Lots more Floridians than Texans on this board.

[loon]

Why are there so many more posts in the Laura threads than this one? Just curious

Lots more Floridians than Texans on this board.

May or may not be true, but for now the uncertainty of TX landfall is MX to NOLA almost and i think most of us are just holding our breath
until its closer or guidance comes in cleaner hah.

[stormlover2013]

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html