ATL: LAURA - Models

[cheezyWXguy]

Yikes, that HWRF run; 920-930 mbar Cat 5 barreling towards Louisiana. Is it even factoring in the possibility of outflow from TD14/Marco?

Think it actually is, but with the opposite outcome. HWRF appears to show Marco encountering shear from the SE from Laura as it makes landfall, judging by the restricted outflow and wind speeds it shows in the SE quad at that time.

[DestinHurricane]

Euro now on board with development. I'll guess that Euro will keep trending stronger in the next few runs.

[northjaxpro]

.

[cp79]

Euro now on board with development. I'll guess that Euro will keep trending stronger in the next few runs.

Surprised since it has it going through the roughest mountains. Not sure it can survive that. The good news is the trend has been south today, even some flirting with takikg this into Mexico now, so hopefully that trend continues.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

In an interesting twist, the ECMWF moves Laura eastwards with a trough after landfall, and then redevelops Laura off the US East Coast at 240 hours stronger than ever.

[northjaxpro]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082112/hwrf_satIR_13L_20.png

Definitely not what you want to see heading towards the Louisiana coastline

It is definitely not somèthing any sane person would want coming at them no matter where you are!!

[TAD]

Yikes, that HWRF run; 920-930 mbar Cat 5 barreling towards Louisiana. Is it even factoring in the possibility of outflow from TD14/Marco?

What about upwelling? Do models factor that in or do the pros use their judgement?

[DestinHurricane]

Euro now on board with development. I'll guess that Euro will keep trending stronger in the next few runs.

Surprised since it has it going through the roughest mountains. Not sure it can survive that. The good news is the trend has been south today, even some flirting with takikg this into Mexico now, so hopefully that trend continues.

As has been stated a thousand times already, land interaction isn't necessarily bad for a weak depression or open wave. It helped Isaias consolidate. Fay 2008 has been referenced several times now.

It shreds already strong storms, not weak waves or depressions.

[aspen]

Yikes, that HWRF run; 920-930 mbar Cat 5 barreling towards Louisiana. Is it even factoring in the possibility of outflow from TD14/Marco?

What about upwelling? Do models factor that in or do the pros use their judgement?

I’m not sure, but at that speed and with such high SSTs and OHC, upwelling shouldn’t be an issue.

[stormlover2013]

EURO 12z ensembles

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html

[HurryKane]

Claudette in 1979, albeit with the addition of interacting with future Marco (and a bit further north), seems like the closest analog, especially since there have also been models indicating some sort of stall could occur close to land.

https://i.imgur.com/prNwmMv.png

What site is this from? I remember these plots but long ago lost the link Thanks!

[Kingarabian]

Euro now on board with development. I'll guess that Euro will keep trending stronger in the next few runs.

Surprised since it has it going through the roughest mountains. Not sure it can survive that. The good news is the trend has been south today, even some flirting with takikg this into Mexico now, so hopefully that trend continues.

As has been stated a thousand times already, land interaction isn't necessarily bad for a weak depression or open wave. It helped Isaias consolidate. Fay 2008 has been referenced several times now.

It shreds already strong storms, not weak waves or depressions.

Yes but there's also examples of weak systems struggling further due to land interaction. TC's (regardless of strength) and mountainous terrain just don't mix. It's 50-50 IMO. Laura will do what Laura wants to do.

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS:

[Texashawk]

12z EPS:
https://i.imgur.com/sRovYMv.png

*spittakes out his Shiner Bock*

[Hammy]

Claudette in 1979, albeit with the addition of interacting with future Marco (and a bit further north), seems like the closest analog, especially since there have also been models indicating some sort of stall could occur close to land.

https://i.imgur.com/prNwmMv.png

What site is this from? I remember these plots but long ago lost the link Thanks!

Wikipedia's the source photo, but linked imgur to resize since it was for reference use so theirs are larger.

[cp79]

Just saw Rita’s track and this thing almost looks like a carbon copy if it plays out. Maybe slightly more south.

[CrazyC83]

12z EPS:
https://i.imgur.com/sRovYMv.png

It could be catching on the thought that the ridge is just too strong.

[captainbarbossa19]

12z EPS:
https://i.imgur.com/sRovYMv.png

Not good. I mentioned this track before and I do not like what I am seeing. Any SW shifts could start to look like this:

1900 Galveston Hurricane Track:



Source: Wikipedia

[CrazyC83]

12z EPS:
https://i.imgur.com/sRovYMv.png

Not good. I mentioned this track before and I do not like what I am seeing. Any SW shifts could start to look like this:

1900 Galveston Hurricane Track:

https://i.imgur.com/CCwBPB7.jpg

Source: Wikipedia

Probably not the same intensity, but that may have the same idea of the upper-air pattern and ridge strength.

[HurricaneEdouard]

12z EPS:
https://i.imgur.com/sRovYMv.png

Almost Camille-like (particularly as it moves off the East Coast).