ATL: LAURA - Models

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cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1621 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Aug 21, 2020 2:04 pm

aspen wrote:Yikes, that HWRF run; 920-930 mbar Cat 5 barreling towards Louisiana. Is it even factoring in the possibility of outflow from TD14/Marco?

Think it actually is, but with the opposite outcome. HWRF appears to show Marco encountering shear from the SE from Laura as it makes landfall, judging by the restricted outflow and wind speeds it shows in the SE quad at that time.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1622 Postby DestinHurricane » Fri Aug 21, 2020 2:07 pm

Euro now on board with development. I'll guess that Euro will keep trending stronger in the next few runs.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1623 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 21, 2020 2:10 pm

.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Aug 21, 2020 2:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1624 Postby cp79 » Fri Aug 21, 2020 2:12 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:Euro now on board with development. I'll guess that Euro will keep trending stronger in the next few runs.


Surprised since it has it going through the roughest mountains. Not sure it can survive that. The good news is the trend has been south today, even some flirting with takikg this into Mexico now, so hopefully that trend continues.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1625 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Aug 21, 2020 2:12 pm

In an interesting twist, the ECMWF moves Laura eastwards with a trough after landfall, and then redevelops Laura off the US East Coast at 240 hours stronger than ever.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1626 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 21, 2020 2:13 pm

TallahasseeMan wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082112/hwrf_satIR_13L_20.png

Definitely not what you want to see heading towards the Louisiana coastline


It is definitely not somèthing any sane person would want coming at them no matter where you are!!
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1627 Postby TAD » Fri Aug 21, 2020 2:15 pm

aspen wrote:Yikes, that HWRF run; 920-930 mbar Cat 5 barreling towards Louisiana. Is it even factoring in the possibility of outflow from TD14/Marco?


What about upwelling? Do models factor that in or do the pros use their judgement?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1628 Postby DestinHurricane » Fri Aug 21, 2020 2:17 pm

cp79 wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:Euro now on board with development. I'll guess that Euro will keep trending stronger in the next few runs.


Surprised since it has it going through the roughest mountains. Not sure it can survive that. The good news is the trend has been south today, even some flirting with takikg this into Mexico now, so hopefully that trend continues.


As has been stated a thousand times already, land interaction isn't necessarily bad for a weak depression or open wave. It helped Isaias consolidate. Fay 2008 has been referenced several times now.

It shreds already strong storms, not weak waves or depressions.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1629 Postby aspen » Fri Aug 21, 2020 2:22 pm

TAD wrote:
aspen wrote:Yikes, that HWRF run; 920-930 mbar Cat 5 barreling towards Louisiana. Is it even factoring in the possibility of outflow from TD14/Marco?


What about upwelling? Do models factor that in or do the pros use their judgement?

I’m not sure, but at that speed and with such high SSTs and OHC, upwelling shouldn’t be an issue.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1630 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Aug 21, 2020 2:49 pm

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1631 Postby HurryKane » Fri Aug 21, 2020 2:55 pm

Hammy wrote:Claudette in 1979, albeit with the addition of interacting with future Marco (and a bit further north), seems like the closest analog, especially since there have also been models indicating some sort of stall could occur close to land.

https://i.imgur.com/prNwmMv.png



What site is this from? I remember these plots but long ago lost the link :( Thanks!
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1632 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 21, 2020 3:00 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:
cp79 wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:Euro now on board with development. I'll guess that Euro will keep trending stronger in the next few runs.


Surprised since it has it going through the roughest mountains. Not sure it can survive that. The good news is the trend has been south today, even some flirting with takikg this into Mexico now, so hopefully that trend continues.


As has been stated a thousand times already, land interaction isn't necessarily bad for a weak depression or open wave. It helped Isaias consolidate. Fay 2008 has been referenced several times now.

It shreds already strong storms, not weak waves or depressions.


Yes but there's also examples of weak systems struggling further due to land interaction. TC's (regardless of strength) and mountainous terrain just don't mix. It's 50-50 IMO. Laura will do what Laura wants to do.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1633 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 21, 2020 3:01 pm

12z EPS:
Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1634 Postby Texashawk » Fri Aug 21, 2020 3:15 pm

Kingarabian wrote:12z EPS:
https://i.imgur.com/sRovYMv.png


*spittakes out his Shiner Bock* :double:
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1635 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 21, 2020 3:21 pm

HurryKane wrote:
Hammy wrote:Claudette in 1979, albeit with the addition of interacting with future Marco (and a bit further north), seems like the closest analog, especially since there have also been models indicating some sort of stall could occur close to land.

https://i.imgur.com/prNwmMv.png



What site is this from? I remember these plots but long ago lost the link :( Thanks!



Wikipedia's the source photo, but linked imgur to resize since it was for reference use so theirs are larger.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1636 Postby cp79 » Fri Aug 21, 2020 3:36 pm

Just saw Rita’s track and this thing almost looks like a carbon copy if it plays out. Maybe slightly more south.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1637 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 21, 2020 4:08 pm

Kingarabian wrote:12z EPS:
https://i.imgur.com/sRovYMv.png


It could be catching on the thought that the ridge is just too strong.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1638 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Fri Aug 21, 2020 4:15 pm

Kingarabian wrote:12z EPS:
https://i.imgur.com/sRovYMv.png


Not good. I mentioned this track before and I do not like what I am seeing. Any SW shifts could start to look like this:

1900 Galveston Hurricane Track:

Image

Source: Wikipedia
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1639 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 21, 2020 4:17 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:12z EPS:
https://i.imgur.com/sRovYMv.png


Not good. I mentioned this track before and I do not like what I am seeing. Any SW shifts could start to look like this:

1900 Galveston Hurricane Track:

https://i.imgur.com/CCwBPB7.jpg

Source: Wikipedia


Probably not the same intensity, but that may have the same idea of the upper-air pattern and ridge strength.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1640 Postby HurricaneEdouard » Fri Aug 21, 2020 4:18 pm

Kingarabian wrote:12z EPS:
https://i.imgur.com/sRovYMv.png

Almost Camille-like (particularly as it moves off the East Coast).
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