ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#781 Postby SoupBone » Fri Aug 21, 2020 4:04 pm

wxman22 wrote:As expected track has shifted more west.

https://i.ibb.co/PFJxBBv/204312-5day-cone-with-line-and-wind.png



This is very odd. But goes along with the west shifts in the Euro and GFS. GFS send it to Tex/Mex and Euro goes to Corpus Christi, both as weak sloppy systems.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2081
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#782 Postby Blinhart » Fri Aug 21, 2020 4:22 pm

I know here in South Louisiana right now there is really nothing going up in the atmosphere, clouds are forming and not really moving anywhere. So I don't know if this will have any effect in the future of Future Marco.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#783 Postby SoupBone » Fri Aug 21, 2020 4:22 pm

So I just read the NHC's discussion and that's exactly why they updated the track. They are leaning on the GFS and Euro. This could mean further gradual shifts south if those two models continue showing a much further south landfall.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Visioen
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 286
Joined: Sat Sep 02, 2017 2:08 pm
Location: Belgium, Europe

Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#784 Postby Visioen » Fri Aug 21, 2020 4:29 pm

wx98 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
wxman22 wrote:As expected track has shifted more west.
https://i.ibb.co/PFJxBBv/204312-5day-cone-with-line-and-wind.png

Sorta odd intensity track IMO. I think if it manages to become a hurricane it lasts as a hurricane the whole way and not just for 12 hours.

Probably dry air near the coast is the thinking.

I think this is the thinking:
By day 4, the cyclone is likely to be blasted by
30-40 kt of southwesterly shear, which would lead to weakening
while it approaches the northwestern Gulf coast.

(from NHC discussion)
2 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#785 Postby aspen » Fri Aug 21, 2020 4:43 pm


I agree with Derek, that band to the E/NE needs to go if TD14 is to rapidly intensify. It seems to be inhibiting the cyclone by keeping moisture displaced from the CoC.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

Nederlander
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1250
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:28 pm
Location: Conroe, TX

Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#786 Postby Nederlander » Fri Aug 21, 2020 4:43 pm

Interesting take by the NHC on the ULL, as I would think this would help to ventilate 14 once in the GoM as it lifts out
0 likes   

Visioen
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 286
Joined: Sat Sep 02, 2017 2:08 pm
Location: Belgium, Europe

Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#787 Postby Visioen » Fri Aug 21, 2020 4:49 pm

Convection still steadily increasing. Also pretty continuous (not pulsating).
2 likes   

User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#788 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Aug 21, 2020 5:10 pm

What are the best links for satellites to follow this storm over night? I'm looking for something to keep up with the convection intensity and organization/structure of the storm.
0 likes   
[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4230
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#789 Postby abajan » Fri Aug 21, 2020 5:16 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:What are the best links for satellites to follow this storm over night? I'm looking for something to keep up with the convection intensity and organization/structure of the storm.

Try Weathernerds. By default, it superimposes lightning on the imagery and you can zoom in on whatever area suits your fancy.
2 likes   

Nederlander
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1250
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:28 pm
Location: Conroe, TX

Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#790 Postby Nederlander » Fri Aug 21, 2020 5:21 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:What are the best links for satellites to follow this storm over night? I'm looking for something to keep up with the convection intensity and organization/structure of the storm.



https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
1 likes   

wx98
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 9:24 pm

Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#791 Postby wx98 » Fri Aug 21, 2020 5:22 pm

Visioen wrote:
wx98 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Sorta odd intensity track IMO. I think if it manages to become a hurricane it lasts as a hurricane the whole way and not just for 12 hours.

Probably dry air near the coast is the thinking.

I think this is the thinking:
By day 4, the cyclone is likely to be blasted by
30-40 kt of southwesterly shear, which would lead to weakening
while it approaches the northwestern Gulf coast.

(from NHC discussion)


I saw someone talking about dry air earlier. But yeah, shear, dry air, etc.
1 likes   

Visioen
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 286
Joined: Sat Sep 02, 2017 2:08 pm
Location: Belgium, Europe

Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#792 Postby Visioen » Fri Aug 21, 2020 5:25 pm

Improving on all fronts.

Image
3 likes   

Visioen
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 286
Joined: Sat Sep 02, 2017 2:08 pm
Location: Belgium, Europe

Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#793 Postby Visioen » Fri Aug 21, 2020 5:30 pm

Also all that convection to the east is slowly disappearing.
0 likes   

User avatar
Beef Stew
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 498
Joined: Sat May 30, 2020 11:31 am
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#794 Postby Beef Stew » Fri Aug 21, 2020 5:31 pm

DMax should really help 14L/Marco (finally) get its act together tonight. After that, it may just be a question of how much it can deepen before shear takes its toll on final approach to the coast.
1 likes   

xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2522
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#795 Postby xironman » Fri Aug 21, 2020 5:32 pm

The mid-level is really picking up, and much closer to being stacked with the low level. We will know in an hour.
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11497
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#796 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 21, 2020 5:33 pm

This has basically been sitting in low CAPE air, the reason convection has been weak.
You really need about 3000 to 3500 CAPE to get deep convection.
Over the Yucatan is where you'll find that.

Image
4 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#797 Postby aspen » Fri Aug 21, 2020 5:36 pm

wx98 wrote:
Visioen wrote:
wx98 wrote:
Probably dry air near the coast is the thinking.

I think this is the thinking:
By day 4, the cyclone is likely to be blasted by
30-40 kt of southwesterly shear, which would lead to weakening
while it approaches the northwestern Gulf coast.

(from NHC discussion)


I saw someone talking about dry air earlier. But yeah, shear, dry air, etc.

Shear and dry air will probably go hand-in-hand by this time; dry air will be a minor issue until shear picks up, shoves it into Marco, and screws up the core.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

shiny-pebble
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 299
Joined: Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:38 pm

Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#798 Postby shiny-pebble » Fri Aug 21, 2020 5:36 pm

Convection to the east is fading at a pretty quick pace now. DMAX could give this quite a decent boost. Should be watched closely especially because this is one small system.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
3 likes   
Not an meteorologist! Just someone who is interested in weather. Please refer to the NHC and local weather officials to make decisions.
-Jack 8-)

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#799 Postby aspen » Fri Aug 21, 2020 5:57 pm

Recon is at ~19.7N, with TD14’s center likely being around 18.2N. I’m excited to see what it finds in that little ball of convection.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5899
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#800 Postby MGC » Fri Aug 21, 2020 6:02 pm

Looks like a very small TC to me......MGC
0 likes   


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests