ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[SoupBone]

As expected track has shifted more west.

https://i.ibb.co/PFJxBBv/204312-5day-cone-with-line-and-wind.png

This is very odd. But goes along with the west shifts in the Euro and GFS. GFS send it to Tex/Mex and Euro goes to Corpus Christi, both as weak sloppy systems.

[Blinhart]

I know here in South Louisiana right now there is really nothing going up in the atmosphere, clouds are forming and not really moving anywhere. So I don't know if this will have any effect in the future of Future Marco.

[SoupBone]

So I just read the NHC's discussion and that's exactly why they updated the track. They are leaning on the GFS and Euro. This could mean further gradual shifts south if those two models continue showing a much further south landfall.

[Visioen]

As expected track has shifted more west.
https://i.ibb.co/PFJxBBv/204312-5day-cone-with-line-and-wind.png

Sorta odd intensity track IMO. I think if it manages to become a hurricane it lasts as a hurricane the whole way and not just for 12 hours.

Probably dry air near the coast is the thinking.

I think this is the thinking:

By day 4, the cyclone is likely to be blasted by
30-40 kt of southwesterly shear, which would lead to weakening
while it approaches the northwestern Gulf coast.

(from NHC discussion)

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1296905424315338752?s=19

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1296909693911289864?s=19

I agree with Derek, that band to the E/NE needs to go if TD14 is to rapidly intensify. It seems to be inhibiting the cyclone by keeping moisture displaced from the CoC.

[Nederlander]

Interesting take by the NHC on the ULL, as I would think this would help to ventilate 14 once in the GoM as it lifts out

[Visioen]

Convection still steadily increasing. Also pretty continuous (not pulsating).

[HouTXmetro]

What are the best links for satellites to follow this storm over night? I'm looking for something to keep up with the convection intensity and organization/structure of the storm.

[abajan]

What are the best links for satellites to follow this storm over night? I'm looking for something to keep up with the convection intensity and organization/structure of the storm.

Try Weathernerds. By default, it superimposes lightning on the imagery and you can zoom in on whatever area suits your fancy.

[Nederlander]

What are the best links for satellites to follow this storm over night? I'm looking for something to keep up with the convection intensity and organization/structure of the storm.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

[wx98]

Sorta odd intensity track IMO. I think if it manages to become a hurricane it lasts as a hurricane the whole way and not just for 12 hours.

Probably dry air near the coast is the thinking.

I think this is the thinking:

By day 4, the cyclone is likely to be blasted by
30-40 kt of southwesterly shear, which would lead to weakening
while it approaches the northwestern Gulf coast.

(from NHC discussion)

I saw someone talking about dry air earlier. But yeah, shear, dry air, etc.

[Visioen]

Improving on all fronts.

[Visioen]

Also all that convection to the east is slowly disappearing.

[Beef Stew]

DMax should really help 14L/Marco (finally) get its act together tonight. After that, it may just be a question of how much it can deepen before shear takes its toll on final approach to the coast.

[xironman]

The mid-level is really picking up, and much closer to being stacked with the low level. We will know in an hour.

[GCANE]

This has basically been sitting in low CAPE air, the reason convection has been weak.
You really need about 3000 to 3500 CAPE to get deep convection.
Over the Yucatan is where you'll find that.

[aspen]

Probably dry air near the coast is the thinking.

I think this is the thinking:

By day 4, the cyclone is likely to be blasted by
30-40 kt of southwesterly shear, which would lead to weakening
while it approaches the northwestern Gulf coast.

(from NHC discussion)

I saw someone talking about dry air earlier. But yeah, shear, dry air, etc.

Shear and dry air will probably go hand-in-hand by this time; dry air will be a minor issue until shear picks up, shoves it into Marco, and screws up the core.

[shiny-pebble]

Convection to the east is fading at a pretty quick pace now. DMAX could give this quite a decent boost. Should be watched closely especially because this is one small system.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[aspen]

Recon is at ~19.7N, with TD14’s center likely being around 18.2N. I’m excited to see what it finds in that little ball of convection.

[MGC]

Looks like a very small TC to me......MGC