ATL: LAURA - Models

[catskillfire51]

[eastcoastFL]

Pretty much the best part of the discussion:

**The bottom line is the intensity forecast is very
track dependent, which makes it more uncertain than normal.**

Doesn’t matter right now what model says what. It’s too close to choose a model for track when it’s so close to land

[Steve]

18z HWRF run is almost completely outside of the NHC cone.

They may not be finished with south and westward adjustments. Or it could swing back east. We have a bunch of days ahead. I'm actually super tired and feel like going lay down and waking up later on. But I'm going to try to gut it until 1am to watch the hurricane models since they are the ones that are most concerning. I'm also thinking about making another super early run to the store tomorrow for additional stock. We have about 5 cases of water, but we could use more non-perishables and booze.

[eastcoastFL]

18z HWRF run is almost completely outside of the NHC cone.

Must be because the center ended up being further south. Can you tell if the HWRF initialized that far south?

[supercane4867]

00z ICON keeps the circulation intact while crossing the islands.

[stormlover2013]

Icon is out to lunch, gfs and euro seem to finally maybe coming together we shall see, both showing high pressure really strong

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF run is almost completely outside of the NHC cone.

Must be because the center ended up being further south. Can you tell if the HWRF initialized that far south?

No, it initialized almost where the NHC position was.

[eastcoastFL]

18z HWRF run is almost completely outside of the NHC cone.

Must be because the center ended up being further south. Can you tell if the HWRF initialized that far south?

No, it initialized almost where the NHC position was.

My mistake I thought it ran right after that position fix

[eastcoastFL]

Icon survives the islands at 75 hours

[supercane4867]

00z ICON landfall appears to be near AL/FL border.

[Hammy]

Icon is out to lunch, gfs and euro seem to finally maybe coming together we shall see, both showing high pressure really strong

Everything shifts west and ICON manages to shift further east.

[Fancy1001]

00z ICON landfall appears to be near AL/FL border.

That's Marco landfalling.

[Steve]

00z ICON landfall appears to be near AL/FL border.

That's Marco landfalling.

He's on weatherbell which is about 5-10 minutes faster than Tropical Tidbits with the models.

[txag2005]

00z ICON landfall appears to be near AL/FL border.

That's Marco landfalling.

I was about to say the same thing, but then it looks like Laura comes right behind and landfall very close, but a bit east (western portion of the Florida panhandle) of where Marco hit on that run.

[Fancy1001]

00z ICON landfall appears to be near AL/FL border.

That's Marco landfalling.

He's on weatherbell which is about 5-10 minutes faster than Tropical Tidbits with the models.

Oh ok.

[Steve]

Yeah, it brings 1004mb to the AL/FL line (Perdido Key/Orange Beach/Ono Island\)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 200&fh=105

[txag2005]

Is there a list somewhere that shows what times we can expect model runs?

[Hurricane Mike]

These Great Antilles storms are the most difficult to forecast than in any part of the Atlantic basin.

[Kingarabian]

Is there a list somewhere that shows what times we can expect model runs?

https://weathermodels.com/index.php?r=site%2Fglossary

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS through hour 24: