ATL: LAURA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
catskillfire51
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 480
Age: 38
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2012 5:40 pm
Location: Lake Jackson, TX

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1861 Postby catskillfire51 » Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:07 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1862 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:08 pm

Pretty much the best part of the discussion:

**The bottom line is the intensity forecast is very
track dependent, which makes it more uncertain than normal.**

Doesn’t matter right now what model says what. It’s too close to choose a model for track when it’s so close to land
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1863 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:10 pm

Blown Away wrote:18z HWRF run is almost completely outside of the NHC cone.


They may not be finished with south and westward adjustments. Or it could swing back east. We have a bunch of days ahead. I'm actually super tired and feel like going lay down and waking up later on. But I'm going to try to gut it until 1am to watch the hurricane models since they are the ones that are most concerning. I'm also thinking about making another super early run to the store tomorrow for additional stock. We have about 5 cases of water, but we could use more non-perishables and booze.
4 likes   

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1864 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:12 pm

Blown Away wrote:18z HWRF run is almost completely outside of the NHC cone.


Must be because the center ended up being further south. Can you tell if the HWRF initialized that far south?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1865 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:15 pm

00z ICON keeps the circulation intact while crossing the islands.
0 likes   

stormlover2013

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1866 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:16 pm

Icon is out to lunch, gfs and euro seem to finally maybe coming together we shall see, both showing high pressure really strong
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10152
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1867 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:17 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
Blown Away wrote:18z HWRF run is almost completely outside of the NHC cone.


Must be because the center ended up being further south. Can you tell if the HWRF initialized that far south?


No, it initialized almost where the NHC position was.
1 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1868 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:19 pm

Blown Away wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
Blown Away wrote:18z HWRF run is almost completely outside of the NHC cone.


Must be because the center ended up being further south. Can you tell if the HWRF initialized that far south?


No, it initialized almost where the NHC position was.


My mistake I thought it ran right after that position fix
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1869 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:21 pm

Icon survives the islands at 75 hours

Image
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1870 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:21 pm

00z ICON landfall appears to be near AL/FL border.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 42
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1871 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:21 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Icon is out to lunch, gfs and euro seem to finally maybe coming together we shall see, both showing high pressure really strong


Everything shifts west and ICON manages to shift further east. :lol:
1 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Fancy1001
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 452
Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:16 pm

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1872 Postby Fancy1001 » Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:23 pm

supercane4867 wrote:00z ICON landfall appears to be near AL/FL border.

That's Marco landfalling.
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1873 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:28 pm

Fancy1001 wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:00z ICON landfall appears to be near AL/FL border.

That's Marco landfalling.


He's on weatherbell which is about 5-10 minutes faster than Tropical Tidbits with the models.
0 likes   

txag2005
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 229
Joined: Thu Jul 17, 2008 1:16 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1874 Postby txag2005 » Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:29 pm

Fancy1001 wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:00z ICON landfall appears to be near AL/FL border.

That's Marco landfalling.


I was about to say the same thing, but then it looks like Laura comes right behind and landfall very close, but a bit east (western portion of the Florida panhandle) of where Marco hit on that run.
0 likes   

Fancy1001
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 452
Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:16 pm

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1875 Postby Fancy1001 » Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:30 pm

Steve wrote:
Fancy1001 wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:00z ICON landfall appears to be near AL/FL border.

That's Marco landfalling.


He's on weatherbell which is about 5-10 minutes faster than Tropical Tidbits with the models.

Oh ok.
1 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1876 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:30 pm

Yeah, it brings 1004mb to the AL/FL line (Perdido Key/Orange Beach/Ono Island\)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 200&fh=105
0 likes   

txag2005
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 229
Joined: Thu Jul 17, 2008 1:16 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1877 Postby txag2005 » Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:35 pm

Is there a list somewhere that shows what times we can expect model runs?
0 likes   

Hurricane Mike
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 644
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:44 am

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1878 Postby Hurricane Mike » Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:37 pm

These Great Antilles storms are the most difficult to forecast than in any part of the Atlantic basin.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 16008
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1879 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:37 pm

txag2005 wrote:Is there a list somewhere that shows what times we can expect model runs?

https://weathermodels.com/index.php?r=site%2Fglossary
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 16008
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#1880 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:39 pm

00z GFS through hour 24:
Image
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests