ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[Hammy]

Starting to show up on Cuban radar

[Steve]

Showing some pink as well
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[3090]

Looking at the current water vapor imagery, I do not see Marco changing course all that much until it enters the south central GOM. It appears it will split the Yucatan channel; far east of where it has been projected to pass, before entering the GOM. All said, Marco is going to suddenly bend left with the building high pressure. It will certainly depend on timing, as to how close he gets to any coast line and his size, before he makes landfall. He could get very close (outer edge) to the SWLA coast, before bending back into Texas, near Galveston, IMO. The timing of the high pressure is critical.

[GCANE]

Anticyclone Rossby Wave Break (ARWB) has developed east of the Rossby Wave.
Center is NE of the CoC.
Not ideal for rapid strengthening.
To get more aligned, deep convection needs to develop over the CoC and the Rossby Wave needs to degrade.
Actually, the Rossby Wave looks a little better this morning than last night.
Convection is firing over the CoC now.
Marco seems to be walking a tight rope if intensification can continue and if so by how much.
The big key is if deep convection can fire and push the Rossby wave out of the way.

[Hammy]

Is that the same anticyclone Laura's expected to find itself under in the GoM in a few days?

And it looks like we might have a mid-level eye forming. Next recon mission will certainly be interesting.

[GCANE]

:uarrow: Is that the same anticyclone Laura's expected to find itself under in the GoM in a few days?

And it looks like we might have a mid-level eye forming. Next recon mission will certainly be interesting.

https://i.imgur.com/YhQYgak.gif

Yes

[GCANE]

Recon descending

[xironman]

They should find something stronger 42056 is at 1005.4 east of the center.

[GCANE]

Latest AMSU Sounder thermal-profile analysis shows no warm core yet.
However, cold to about 500mb.
This shows a strong lapse rate which supports a good updraft for convection.
Also, CoC now sitting in CAPE values that support strong convective development.
The so called dry-air that has been hampering thunderstorm development is no longer an issue.
Chances of hot towers firing off have increased quite a bit.

[GCANE]

They should find something stronger 42056 is at 1005.4 east of the center.

Stronger winds mean more heat exchange from the water to the air.
Starts the whole intensification machine going.
This is some very hot and deep water.
Basically going to be riding over the loop current.

[xironman]

The gulfstream mission is finding robust upper level winds north of Marco, it may be impacted by shear sooner than later.

[GCANE]

Looks like the anticyclone is sneaking up on Marco from behind.
Looks like Marco maybe starting to win over the Rossby Wave.
Watch out if the anticyclone gets ahead of Macro.

[3090]

The gulfstream mission is finding robust upper level winds north of Marco, it may be impacted by shear sooner than later.

Thus my statement earlier, about his immediate track!

WV imagery in the GOM is very telling. Do not see Marco plowing into/thru that shear and heading towards Texas any time soon.

[tiger_deF]

Recon finding sub 1000 mb pressure and nearly 60 kt flight level wind, wind profile of Marco is lopsided but robust

[Portastorm]

The gulfstream mission is finding robust upper level winds north of Marco, it may be impacted by shear sooner than later.

Thus my statement earlier, about his immediate track!

WV imagery in the GOM is very telling. Do not see Marco plowing into/thru that shear and heading towards Texas any time soon.

It's not supposed to anyhow per the NHC guidance and track.

[GCANE]

GFS is now also showing the breakdown of the Rossby Wave in 24 hrs
Interesting scenario as Macro reinforces the ARWB in the GoM and Laura tracks into it.
Could be a 1-2 punch for the Houston area.

[Nimbus]

Recon finding sub 1000 mb pressure and nearly 60 kt flight level wind, wind profile of Marco is lopsided but robust

Marco is shooting the gap and the relatively slow forward speed the models are predicting means more time for that trough to weaken. I think the trough is eventually forecast to tilt back west keeping the warm moist shear blowing toward Houston?

[GCANE]

Very heavy rain fall rate now being seen on satellite.
Recon measuring 33 mm/hr so far.
Anything in the 50+ range and Macro goes up a notch.
In the clear 55-knot flight level winds from Recon.

[GCANE]

Big MCS firing over TX.
Going to take another chunk out of the Rossby Wave.

[GCANE]

Big MCS firing over TX.
Going to take another chunk out of the Rossby Wave.

MCS is tracking into high CAPE.
It'll blow up soon.
Could be the one that really starts to nail the Rossby Wave.