ATL: LAURA - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

So the HMON and HWRF basically meeting together near central Louisiana. The HMON shift was pretty big, the HWRF was less but noticeable.

the hmon has been dancing all over the gom.

[Fancy1001]

I know I'm stating the obvious, but it seems the further west it goes, the stronger it will be.

[SoupBone]

So the HMON and HWRF basically meeting together near central Louisiana. The HMON shift was pretty big, the HWRF was less but noticeable.

the hmon has been dancing all over the gom.

True, but this is the furthest east it's been in its runs. It was going from Tex/Mex to Galveston.

[Fancy1001]

Euro entering the gulf well off with a 991mb just off the tip of Cuba. Not a good sign.

[ConvergenceZone]

Euro appears to be coming in stronger

[Highteeld]

Cat 2 on the euro at hour 72. Very strong run thus far

[Fancy1001]

Now does it continue Northwest to Texas, or head north to Louisiana. It looks to be following Marcos remains, so I'm going to guess it's heading to Texas.

[Highteeld]

962mb at hour 78

[Hammy]

Everything trending stronger, credit to HMON/HWRF if this plays out, even though the latter is generally bullish on everything. I do wonder if the southern track is the reason is the reason there's more of a consensus now on intensification in the Gulf despite land interaction, being further from the dry air.

[SoupBone]

Anyone have the GFS ensembles?

[ColdMiser123]

Euro down to 964 mb at hour 80, should make landfall along the central Texas coast this run.

[Highteeld]

Still exploding at hour 84, 958mb

[SoupBone]

Euro down to 964 mb at hour 80, should make landfall along the central Texas coast this run.

This all seems like groundhog day from last night's runs.

[Steve]

Now does it continue Northwest to Texas, or head north to Louisiana. It looks to be following Marcos remains, so I'm going to guess it's heading to Texas.

Cat 3 hit on Texas with the EC around Freeport.

[xironman]

Visual for that

[Highteeld]

Makes landfall near houston (perhaps a bit west) around hour 100 at cat 3 to cat 4 intensity per low res euro

[Fancy1001]

Still exploding at hour 84, 958mb

Since this is the euro, I think you can deduct at least 15-20 millibars from that.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

[Highteeld]

953mb at hour 90

[SoupBone]

The only model that has been fairly consistent in this whole episode has been the HWRF, but even if moved a little west on the last run.