ATL: LAURA - Models

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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2381 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 12:56 am

SoupBone wrote:So the HMON and HWRF basically meeting together near central Louisiana. The HMON shift was pretty big, the HWRF was less but noticeable.

the hmon has been dancing all over the gom.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2382 Postby Fancy1001 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 12:59 am

I know I'm stating the obvious, but it seems the further west it goes, the stronger it will be.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2383 Postby SoupBone » Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:01 am

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:So the HMON and HWRF basically meeting together near central Louisiana. The HMON shift was pretty big, the HWRF was less but noticeable.

the hmon has been dancing all over the gom.


True, but this is the furthest east it's been in its runs. It was going from Tex/Mex to Galveston.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2384 Postby Fancy1001 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:04 am

Euro entering the gulf well off with a 991mb just off the tip of Cuba. Not a good sign.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2385 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:08 am

Euro appears to be coming in stronger
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2386 Postby Highteeld » Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:08 am

Cat 2 on the euro at hour 72. Very strong run thus far
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2387 Postby Fancy1001 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:12 am

Now does it continue Northwest to Texas, or head north to Louisiana. It looks to be following Marcos remains, so I'm going to guess it's heading to Texas.
Last edited by Fancy1001 on Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2388 Postby Highteeld » Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:13 am

962mb at hour 78
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2389 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:13 am

Everything trending stronger, credit to HMON/HWRF if this plays out, even though the latter is generally bullish on everything. I do wonder if the southern track is the reason is the reason there's more of a consensus now on intensification in the Gulf despite land interaction, being further from the dry air.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2390 Postby SoupBone » Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:13 am

Anyone have the GFS ensembles?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2391 Postby ColdMiser123 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:13 am

Euro down to 964 mb at hour 80, should make landfall along the central Texas coast this run.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2392 Postby Highteeld » Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:14 am

Still exploding at hour 84, 958mb
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2393 Postby SoupBone » Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:15 am

ColdMiser123 wrote:Euro down to 964 mb at hour 80, should make landfall along the central Texas coast this run.



This all seems like groundhog day from last night's runs.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2394 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:15 am

Fancy1001 wrote:Now does it continue Northwest to Texas, or head north to Louisiana. It looks to be following Marcos remains, so I'm going to guess it's heading to Texas.


Cat 3 hit on Texas with the EC around Freeport.
Last edited by Steve on Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2395 Postby xironman » Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:15 am

Visual for that

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2396 Postby Highteeld » Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:15 am

Makes landfall near houston (perhaps a bit west) around hour 100 at cat 3 to cat 4 intensity per low res euro
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2397 Postby Fancy1001 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:16 am

Highteeld wrote:Still exploding at hour 84, 958mb

Since this is the euro, I think you can deduct at least 15-20 millibars from that.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2398 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:16 am

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2399 Postby Highteeld » Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:16 am

953mb at hour 90
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2400 Postby SoupBone » Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:17 am

The only model that has been fairly consistent in this whole episode has been the HWRF, but even if moved a little west on the last run.
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