ATL: LAURA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2461 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:31 am

HWRF 84 hrs 106kts

Image
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2462 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:32 am

It appears to be headed for the border at 78. That’s west of the last output
0 likes   

stormlover2013

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2463 Postby stormlover2013 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:33 am

Hwrf headed to border or crystal beach
0 likes   

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2464 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:34 am

So gfs/euro Cat 2 now and hurricane models are showing Cat 3. Nhc is currently forecasting a Cat 2 so they’ll probably stick with that for now.

Edit: HWRF is a cat 4 at landfall.
Last edited by eastcoastFL on Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
gqhebert
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 51
Age: 50
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2012 9:38 pm

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2465 Postby gqhebert » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:36 am

Seems like everything in the long run will loom on where Laura exits the islands... A more southern exit of the islands will cause a more western landfall
0 likes   

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2466 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:36 am

90hrs HWRF 134kts

Image
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

stormlover2013

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2467 Postby stormlover2013 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:37 am

Think the data is helping model with upper level pattern pretty good now
0 likes   

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2468 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:39 am

Image
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cajungal
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2330
Age: 49
Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2004 9:34 pm
Location: Schriever, Louisiana (60 miles southwest of New Orleans)

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2469 Postby cajungal » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:41 am

How big is Laura? I know Rita was huge and even when she hit the border, we had nasty squalls even 200 miles to the East in Lafourche/Terrebonne
0 likes   

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2587
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2470 Postby kevin » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:42 am

A safe and wise decision of NHC to keep intensity at a cat 2 for now until we know more about the interaction with the islands and how Laura looks when it leaves Cuba, but based on these models I think a major hurricane is definitely on the table.
2 likes   

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2471 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:44 am

cajungal wrote:How big is Laura? I know Rita was huge and even when she hit the border, we had nasty squalls even 200 miles to the East in Lafourche/Terrebonne


She’s been expanding overnight. Much bigger than Marco but no clue how big she’ll be when she’s in the gulf. This is what her satellite presentation is forecast to be at landfall

Image

Radar

Image
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cajungal
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2330
Age: 49
Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2004 9:34 pm
Location: Schriever, Louisiana (60 miles southwest of New Orleans)

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2472 Postby cajungal » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:47 am

eastcoastFL wrote:
cajungal wrote:How big is Laura? I know Rita was huge and even when she hit the border, we had nasty squalls even 200 miles to the East in Lafourche/Terrebonne


She’s been expanding overnight. Much bigger than Marco but no clue how big she’ll be when she’s in the gulf. This is what her satellite presentation is forecast to be at landfall

Well that doesn’t look bad for me here in Lafourche, looks like the bands wouldn’t even reach me. Unless track shifts back towards central La.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082306/hwrf_satIR_13L_16.png

Radar

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082306/hwrf_ref_13L_30.png
0 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2473 Postby SoupBone » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:57 am

Lots of model cluster around the SWLA area this morning. I think this is where you'll start to see only minor windshield wiper effect, from Central Louisiana to the Galveston area as the models begin to hone in. This is very concerning for the Houston area to Lafayette, La.
3 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cajungal
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2330
Age: 49
Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2004 9:34 pm
Location: Schriever, Louisiana (60 miles southwest of New Orleans)

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2474 Postby cajungal » Sun Aug 23, 2020 7:00 am

SoupBone wrote:Lots of model cluster around the SWLA area this morning. I think this is where you'll start to see only minor windshield wiper effect, from Central Louisiana to the Galveston area as the models begin to hone in. This is very concerning for the Houston area to Lafayette, La.


I am in Thibodaux and still concerned
2 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2475 Postby SoupBone » Sun Aug 23, 2020 7:07 am

So to recap this morning's runs:

GFS - SWLA near border - 954-964mb
HMON - SWLA near border - 941mb
HWRF - SWLA near border - 947mb
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2476 Postby rockyman » Sun Aug 23, 2020 7:08 am

Does anyone know why HWRF for Marco would show this image for Laura (well East of the Laura HWRF run)? Image
0 likes   

HoustonFrog
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 98
Joined: Thu Jun 04, 2020 1:49 pm

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2477 Postby HoustonFrog » Sun Aug 23, 2020 7:19 am

So what is this looking like for Houston?
0 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2478 Postby SoupBone » Sun Aug 23, 2020 7:23 am

Anyone know when the 6Z Euro is coming out?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

stormlover2013

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2479 Postby stormlover2013 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 7:26 am

SoupBone wrote:Anyone know when the 6Z Euro is coming out?
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#2480 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 23, 2020 7:26 am

06z Euro does a Fujiwhara effect with both storms.
2 likes   


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest