ATL: LAURA - Models

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF 84 hrs 106kts

[Steve]

It appears to be headed for the border at 78. That’s west of the last output

[stormlover2013]

Hwrf headed to border or crystal beach

[eastcoastFL]

So gfs/euro Cat 2 now and hurricane models are showing Cat 3. Nhc is currently forecasting a Cat 2 so they’ll probably stick with that for now.

Edit: HWRF is a cat 4 at landfall.

[gqhebert]

Seems like everything in the long run will loom on where Laura exits the islands... A more southern exit of the islands will cause a more western landfall

[eastcoastFL]

90hrs HWRF 134kts

[stormlover2013]

Think the data is helping model with upper level pattern pretty good now

[eastcoastFL]

[cajungal]

How big is Laura? I know Rita was huge and even when she hit the border, we had nasty squalls even 200 miles to the East in Lafourche/Terrebonne

[kevin]

A safe and wise decision of NHC to keep intensity at a cat 2 for now until we know more about the interaction with the islands and how Laura looks when it leaves Cuba, but based on these models I think a major hurricane is definitely on the table.

[eastcoastFL]

How big is Laura? I know Rita was huge and even when she hit the border, we had nasty squalls even 200 miles to the East in Lafourche/Terrebonne

She’s been expanding overnight. Much bigger than Marco but no clue how big she’ll be when she’s in the gulf. This is what her satellite presentation is forecast to be at landfall



Radar

[cajungal]

How big is Laura? I know Rita was huge and even when she hit the border, we had nasty squalls even 200 miles to the East in Lafourche/Terrebonne

She’s been expanding overnight. Much bigger than Marco but no clue how big she’ll be when she’s in the gulf. This is what her satellite presentation is forecast to be at landfall

Well that doesn’t look bad for me here in Lafourche, looks like the bands wouldn’t even reach me. Unless track shifts back towards central La.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082306/hwrf_satIR_13L_16.png

Radar

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082306/hwrf_ref_13L_30.png

[SoupBone]

Lots of model cluster around the SWLA area this morning. I think this is where you'll start to see only minor windshield wiper effect, from Central Louisiana to the Galveston area as the models begin to hone in. This is very concerning for the Houston area to Lafayette, La.

[cajungal]

Lots of model cluster around the SWLA area this morning. I think this is where you'll start to see only minor windshield wiper effect, from Central Louisiana to the Galveston area as the models begin to hone in. This is very concerning for the Houston area to Lafayette, La.

I am in Thibodaux and still concerned

[SoupBone]

So to recap this morning's runs:

GFS - SWLA near border - 954-964mb
HMON - SWLA near border - 941mb
HWRF - SWLA near border - 947mb

[rockyman]

Does anyone know why HWRF for Marco would show this image for Laura (well East of the Laura HWRF run)?

[HoustonFrog]

So what is this looking like for Houston?

[SoupBone]

Anyone know when the 6Z Euro is coming out?

[stormlover2013]

Anyone know when the 6Z Euro is coming out?

[NDG]

06z Euro does a Fujiwhara effect with both storms.