ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I haven't seen Aric posting recently, anyone know why.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
eastcoastFL wrote:aspen wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:
The accuracy is just nuts. The HWRF IR is identical to the current presentation
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082312/hwrf_satIR_13L_3.png
Considering the fact that the HWRF is also the model that’s been consistently bombing Laura out to a 920-940 mbar Cat 4/5, such accuracy is not a good sign.
Agreed. Hopefully it’s a case of the model over doing intensity and not repeat of Dorian when HWRF was the only one bombing it out while the others were forecasting it to dissipate
The squirrel found its nut that time. The HWRF has been wrong more often on the deep end than the other way around over the years. Be wary.
As an aside, is the HWRF run for Laura properly taking Marco into account?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
LarryWx wrote:aspen wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:
The accuracy is just nuts. The HWRF IR is identical to the current presentation
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082312/hwrf_satIR_13L_3.png
Considering the fact that the HWRF is also the model that’s been consistently bombing Laura out to a 920-940 mbar Cat 4/5, such accuracy is not a good sign.
The HWRF is far from reliable. Sometimes it has been close and at other times it has been way off. Reminder/example: as recently as 12Z yesterday, it was clearly north of the GAs. And it has a deepening bias. Beware.
That 12z run was odd yesterday. It initialized south of the island then went north of it as you mentioned but the next frame it was south of DR right where the circulation ended up being. So while it when north for a minute for whatever reason it still ended up in the right place somehow in that same run. Besides that I think HWRF has been very solid and better than any other model so far with this storm.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Ken711 wrote:I haven't seen Aric posting recently, anyone know why.
He was here a few hours ago. It’s Sunday night so he’s probably got things to do.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
What is it that takes Marco east after landfall, and Laura travels east after landfall?
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All that wander are not lost... 
Babe, Bob, Danny,Juan
Betsy, Camille, Andrew
Ike, Rita,Harvey,Beryl

Babe, Bob, Danny,Juan
Betsy, Camille, Andrew
Ike, Rita,Harvey,Beryl
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Gtmo Naval Base finally seeing the strong winds from Laura, gusting to 67 mph now.
Conditions at: MUGM observed 23 August 2020 23:30 UTC
Temperature: 24.4°C (76°F)
Dewpoint: 23.3°C (74°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.75 inches Hg (1007.5 mb)
Winds: from the SE (140 degrees) at 46 MPH (40 knots; 20.8 m/s)
gusting to 67 MPH (58 knots; 30.2 m/s)
Visibility: 1.00 miles (1.61 km)
Ceiling: 1000 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1000 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 2000 feet AGL
Conditions at: MUGM observed 23 August 2020 23:30 UTC
Temperature: 24.4°C (76°F)
Dewpoint: 23.3°C (74°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.75 inches Hg (1007.5 mb)
Winds: from the SE (140 degrees) at 46 MPH (40 knots; 20.8 m/s)
gusting to 67 MPH (58 knots; 30.2 m/s)
Visibility: 1.00 miles (1.61 km)
Ceiling: 1000 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1000 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 2000 feet AGL
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
nlosrgr8 wrote:What is it that takes Marco east after landfall, and Laura travels east after landfall?
From I see Marco travels west after landfall over Texas and Laura travels north. Not sure what you are looking at.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Wow, that sucker was strengthening right before making landfall.
Conditions at: MUGM observed 23 August 2020 23:51 UTC
Temperature: 24.4°C (76°F)
Dewpoint: 23.3°C (74°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.76 inches Hg (1007.9 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1007.7 mb]
Winds: from the SE (130 degrees) at 60 MPH (52 knots; 27.0 m/s)
gusting to 72 MPH (63 knots; 32.8 m/s)
Visibility: 1.00 miles (1.61 km)
Ceiling: 1000 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 1000 feet AGL
Present Weather: +RA BR (heavy rain, mist)
SOME DATA ABOVE MAY BE INACCURATE!!!
"$" is an indication the sensor requires maintenance
Conditions at: MUGM observed 23 August 2020 23:51 UTC
Temperature: 24.4°C (76°F)
Dewpoint: 23.3°C (74°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.76 inches Hg (1007.9 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1007.7 mb]
Winds: from the SE (130 degrees) at 60 MPH (52 knots; 27.0 m/s)
gusting to 72 MPH (63 knots; 32.8 m/s)
Visibility: 1.00 miles (1.61 km)
Ceiling: 1000 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 1000 feet AGL
Present Weather: +RA BR (heavy rain, mist)
SOME DATA ABOVE MAY BE INACCURATE!!!
"$" is an indication the sensor requires maintenance
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Laura seems very eager to strengthen at every opportunity but keeps getting held back. That will change in 24 hours...
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Kazmit wrote:Laura seems very eager to strengthen at every opportunity but keeps getting held back. That will change in 24 hours...
Really gonna be scary yet awe inspiring what this will look like in 48 hours
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- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
nlosrgr8 wrote:What is it that takes Marco east after landfall, and Laura travels east after landfall?
Marco goes west not East at landfall

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NDG wrote:Wow, that sucker was strengthening right before making landfall.
Conditions at: MUGM observed 23 August 2020 23:51 UTC
Temperature: 24.4°C (76°F)
Dewpoint: 23.3°C (74°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.76 inches Hg (1007.9 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1007.7 mb]
Winds: from the SE (130 degrees) at 60 MPH (52 knots; 27.0 m/s)
gusting to 72 MPH (63 knots; 32.8 m/s)
Visibility: 1.00 miles (1.61 km)
Ceiling: 1000 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 1000 feet AGL
Present Weather: +RA BR (heavy rain, mist)
SOME DATA ABOVE MAY BE INACCURATE!!!
"$" is an indication the sensor requires maintenance
Pressure was 1002mb earlier but wind was only 14kts then. Do you think that was the center and now it’s in the NE quad?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NDG wrote:Wow, that sucker was strengthening right before making landfall.
Conditions at: MUGM observed 23 August 2020 23:51 UTC
Temperature: 24.4°C (76°F)
Dewpoint: 23.3°C (74°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.76 inches Hg (1007.9 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1007.7 mb]
Winds: from the SE (130 degrees) at 60 MPH (52 knots; 27.0 m/s)
gusting to 72 MPH (63 knots; 32.8 m/s)
Visibility: 1.00 miles (1.61 km)
Ceiling: 1000 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 1000 feet AGL
Present Weather: +RA BR (heavy rain, mist)
SOME DATA ABOVE MAY BE INACCURATE!!!
"$" is an indication the sensor requires maintenance
Looks like the NHC had the winds too low.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
eastcoastFL wrote:LarryWx wrote:aspen wrote:Considering the fact that the HWRF is also the model that’s been consistently bombing Laura out to a 920-940 mbar Cat 4/5, such accuracy is not a good sign.
The HWRF is far from reliable. Sometimes it has been close and at other times it has been way off. Reminder/example: as recently as 12Z yesterday, it was clearly north of the GAs. And it has a deepening bias. Beware.
That 12z run was odd yesterday. It initialized south of the island then went north of it as you mentioned but the next frame it was south of DR right where the circulation ended up being. So while it when north for a minute for whatever reason it still ended up in the right place somehow in that same run. Besides that I think HWRF has been very solid and better than any other model so far with this storm.
Yeah, that was a really weird run!
With Marco out there, I think he
muddies up the waters/atmosphere just enough to prevent a cat 4 landfall. We’ll see.
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Aug 23, 2020 7:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Strong winds measured at Guantanamo Bay


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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Ken711 wrote:I haven't seen Aric posting recently, anyone know why.
He's probably packing his bags, lol
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
First, let me apologize for messing up the Model thread. It's been awhile and I forgot the discussion thread.
I hope the new tracks keep it further east of the Texas Louisiana border. We've had more than our share since Rita. I was hoping upwelling from Marco would reduce surface water temps enough to keep Laura from developing.
I hope the new tracks keep it further east of the Texas Louisiana border. We've had more than our share since Rita. I was hoping upwelling from Marco would reduce surface water temps enough to keep Laura from developing.
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Living at the intersection of Rita and Humberto and Ike and Harvey and Laura and Delta!
This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological products.
This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological products.
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Sorry, my question was a mess... what I want to ask is what is pushing Marco to travel west after landfall, while Laura travels north?
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All that wander are not lost... 
Babe, Bob, Danny,Juan
Betsy, Camille, Andrew
Ike, Rita,Harvey,Beryl

Babe, Bob, Danny,Juan
Betsy, Camille, Andrew
Ike, Rita,Harvey,Beryl
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Steve wrote:DocB wrote:Oh my gosh, I post NOTHING and feel compelled to post this ( not only because of repeated questions here but because of ridiculous nonsense on other social media platforms).
The Fujhiwara Effect is a NON-ISSUE with these storms. It is a phenomenon RARELY seen when Pacific tropical cyclones track in close proximity in the absence of other predominant steering forces.
In the GOM, with ridges, troughs, land interaction...NOT going to happen.
That is all.
Sorry for the interruption
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
You safely on the road to the white-hot dessert yet Doc?
Just arriving in San Antonio ...so got ahead of all the weather.
Traffic was heavy this morning from Mobile north to Baton Rouge and also from New Orleans west towards Houston. Eastbound traffic on I-10 was fairly light but not sparse. I did see a convoy of about 20 utility trucks heading east on I-10 from Houston as well.
Mostly it seems like folks aren’t sure where to go.
Will depart from San Antonio tomorrow and drive to Albuquerque. So feel much better about the whole situation.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Ken711 wrote:I haven't seen Aric posting recently, anyone know why.
He's currently active on Discord.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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