ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ken711]

I haven't seen Aric posting recently, anyone know why.

[LarryWx]

The accuracy is just nuts. The HWRF IR is identical to the current presentation

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082312/hwrf_satIR_13L_3.png

Considering the fact that the HWRF is also the model that’s been consistently bombing Laura out to a 920-940 mbar Cat 4/5, such accuracy is not a good sign.

Agreed. Hopefully it’s a case of the model over doing intensity and not repeat of Dorian when HWRF was the only one bombing it out while the others were forecasting it to dissipate

The squirrel found its nut that time. The HWRF has been wrong more often on the deep end than the other way around over the years. Be wary.
As an aside, is the HWRF run for Laura properly taking Marco into account?

[eastcoastFL]

The accuracy is just nuts. The HWRF IR is identical to the current presentation

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082312/hwrf_satIR_13L_3.png

Considering the fact that the HWRF is also the model that’s been consistently bombing Laura out to a 920-940 mbar Cat 4/5, such accuracy is not a good sign.

The HWRF is far from reliable. Sometimes it has been close and at other times it has been way off. Reminder/example: as recently as 12Z yesterday, it was clearly north of the GAs. And it has a deepening bias. Beware.

That 12z run was odd yesterday. It initialized south of the island then went north of it as you mentioned but the next frame it was south of DR right where the circulation ended up being. So while it when north for a minute for whatever reason it still ended up in the right place somehow in that same run. Besides that I think HWRF has been very solid and better than any other model so far with this storm.

[eastcoastFL]

I haven't seen Aric posting recently, anyone know why.

He was here a few hours ago. It’s Sunday night so he’s probably got things to do.

[nlosrgr8]

What is it that takes Marco east after landfall, and Laura travels east after landfall?

[NDG]

Gtmo Naval Base finally seeing the strong winds from Laura, gusting to 67 mph now.

Conditions at: MUGM observed 23 August 2020 23:30 UTC
Temperature: 24.4°C (76°F)
Dewpoint: 23.3°C (74°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.75 inches Hg (1007.5 mb)
Winds: from the SE (140 degrees) at 46 MPH (40 knots; 20.8 m/s)
gusting to 67 MPH (58 knots; 30.2 m/s)
Visibility: 1.00 miles (1.61 km)
Ceiling: 1000 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1000 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 2000 feet AGL

[sphelps8681]

What is it that takes Marco east after landfall, and Laura travels east after landfall?

From I see Marco travels west after landfall over Texas and Laura travels north. Not sure what you are looking at.

[NDG]

Wow, that sucker was strengthening right before making landfall.

Conditions at: MUGM observed 23 August 2020 23:51 UTC
Temperature: 24.4°C (76°F)
Dewpoint: 23.3°C (74°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.76 inches Hg (1007.9 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1007.7 mb]
Winds: from the SE (130 degrees) at 60 MPH (52 knots; 27.0 m/s)
gusting to 72 MPH (63 knots; 32.8 m/s)
Visibility: 1.00 miles (1.61 km)
Ceiling: 1000 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 1000 feet AGL
Present Weather: +RA BR (heavy rain, mist)
SOME DATA ABOVE MAY BE INACCURATE!!!
"$" is an indication the sensor requires maintenance

[Kazmit]

Laura seems very eager to strengthen at every opportunity but keeps getting held back. That will change in 24 hours...

[St0rmTh0r]

Laura seems very eager to strengthen at every opportunity but keeps getting held back. That will change in 24 hours...

Really gonna be scary yet awe inspiring what this will look like in 48 hours

[eastcoastFL]

What is it that takes Marco east after landfall, and Laura travels east after landfall?

Marco goes west not East at landfall

[eastcoastFL]

Wow, that sucker was strengthening right before making landfall.

Conditions at: MUGM observed 23 August 2020 23:51 UTC
Temperature: 24.4°C (76°F)
Dewpoint: 23.3°C (74°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.76 inches Hg (1007.9 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1007.7 mb]
Winds: from the SE (130 degrees) at 60 MPH (52 knots; 27.0 m/s)
gusting to 72 MPH (63 knots; 32.8 m/s)
Visibility: 1.00 miles (1.61 km)
Ceiling: 1000 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 1000 feet AGL
Present Weather: +RA BR (heavy rain, mist)
SOME DATA ABOVE MAY BE INACCURATE!!!
"$" is an indication the sensor requires maintenance

Pressure was 1002mb earlier but wind was only 14kts then. Do you think that was the center and now it’s in the NE quad?

[Kingarabian]

Wow, that sucker was strengthening right before making landfall.

Conditions at: MUGM observed 23 August 2020 23:51 UTC
Temperature: 24.4°C (76°F)
Dewpoint: 23.3°C (74°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.76 inches Hg (1007.9 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1007.7 mb]
Winds: from the SE (130 degrees) at 60 MPH (52 knots; 27.0 m/s)
gusting to 72 MPH (63 knots; 32.8 m/s)
Visibility: 1.00 miles (1.61 km)
Ceiling: 1000 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 1000 feet AGL
Present Weather: +RA BR (heavy rain, mist)
SOME DATA ABOVE MAY BE INACCURATE!!!
"$" is an indication the sensor requires maintenance

Looks like the NHC had the winds too low.

[LarryWx]

Considering the fact that the HWRF is also the model that’s been consistently bombing Laura out to a 920-940 mbar Cat 4/5, such accuracy is not a good sign.

The HWRF is far from reliable. Sometimes it has been close and at other times it has been way off. Reminder/example: as recently as 12Z yesterday, it was clearly north of the GAs. And it has a deepening bias. Beware.

That 12z run was odd yesterday. It initialized south of the island then went north of it as you mentioned but the next frame it was south of DR right where the circulation ended up being. So while it when north for a minute for whatever reason it still ended up in the right place somehow in that same run. Besides that I think HWRF has been very solid and better than any other model so far with this storm.

Yeah, that was a really weird run!

With Marco out there, I think he
muddies up the waters/atmosphere just enough to prevent a cat 4 landfall. We’ll see.

[Highteeld]

Strong winds measured at Guantanamo Bay

[ozonepete]

I haven't seen Aric posting recently, anyone know why.

He's probably packing his bags, lol

[MBryant]

First, let me apologize for messing up the Model thread. It's been awhile and I forgot the discussion thread.

I hope the new tracks keep it further east of the Texas Louisiana border. We've had more than our share since Rita. I was hoping upwelling from Marco would reduce surface water temps enough to keep Laura from developing.

[nlosrgr8]

Sorry, my question was a mess... what I want to ask is what is pushing Marco to travel west after landfall, while Laura travels north?

[DocB]

Oh my gosh, I post NOTHING and feel compelled to post this ( not only because of repeated questions here but because of ridiculous nonsense on other social media platforms).

The Fujhiwara Effect is a NON-ISSUE with these storms. It is a phenomenon RARELY seen when Pacific tropical cyclones track in close proximity in the absence of other predominant steering forces.

In the GOM, with ridges, troughs, land interaction...NOT going to happen.

That is all.

Sorry for the interruption


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You safely on the road to the white-hot dessert yet Doc?

Just arriving in San Antonio ...so got ahead of all the weather.

Traffic was heavy this morning from Mobile north to Baton Rouge and also from New Orleans west towards Houston. Eastbound traffic on I-10 was fairly light but not sparse. I did see a convoy of about 20 utility trucks heading east on I-10 from Houston as well.

Mostly it seems like folks aren’t sure where to go.

Will depart from San Antonio tomorrow and drive to Albuquerque. So feel much better about the whole situation.


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[galaxy401]

I haven't seen Aric posting recently, anyone know why.

He's currently active on Discord.