ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2921 Postby alienstorm » Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:23 pm

18z EURO now takes it to New Orleans, quite a shift east.

Image
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2922 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:27 pm

MBryant wrote:If the current forecast of 15 inches with a fast moving storm holds. That would not be bad. Harvey was 60+ and Imelda was 40+ and scattered. Now my only concern is a Rapid Intensification Cycle. RITA devastated the area with widespread trees snapped (Pines) or uprooted (Oaks).

Is there a place the most current individual models are located?
Rain will be an issue but this is going to be a major wind event
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2923 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:28 pm

supercane4867 wrote:I smell a center relocation coming. Reminds of Gustav.


That would place the central Texas coast in play too? Also, if it can close off a solid center with open water, no reason why it can't strengthen considerably south of Cuba.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2924 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:35 pm

GUANTANAMO BAY, CUBA NAVAL, CU, Cuba
(MUGM) 19-55N 075-12W 23M
Conditions at

Aug 23, 2020 - 08:51 PM EDT

2020.08.24 0051 UTC
Wind from the SE (130 degrees) at 48 MPH (42 KT) gusting to 62 MPH (54 KT)
Visibility 1 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Heavy rain
Mist
Precipitation last hour 0.52 inches
Temperature 75.9 F (24.4 C)
Dew Point 73.9 F (23.3 C)
Relative Humidity 93%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.84 in. Hg (1010 hPa)
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2925 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:37 pm

Cross post, but think it's worth sharing here too.

Worth noting that across the EPS members and more or less the entirety of guidance, the stronger solutions have been a little slower and on the left side of the envelope while the weaker solutions have been quicker and towards the right side of the envelope. That kind of a signal indicates the future track of Laura may be heavily dependent upon its overall organization and intensity when it emerges into the Gulf and the short time period immediately afterwards.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2926 Postby MBryant » Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:39 pm

With the models all over the place, steering currents must be weak.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2927 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:39 pm

Voluntary evacuations just issued for residents in Lafayette Parish south of I-10. I'm well south of I-10 but should be safe from flooding/surge. Don't think I've seen a voluntary evac here since Lili 2002.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2928 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:41 pm

Laura has already left its mark. 13 deaths have been reported.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2929 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:44 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Laura has already left its mark. 13 deaths have been reported.


Where? Haiti and DR? I saw some awful flooding from DR
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2930 Postby Nederlander » Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:46 pm

MBryant wrote:With the models all over the place, steering currents must be weak.

Quite strong actually. The steering is pretty straightforward, it’s just not knowing how Laura will handle Cuba.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2931 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:46 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:Laura has already left its mark. 13 deaths have been reported.


Where? Haiti and DR? I saw some awful flooding from DR

9 have been reported in Haiti, the rest in the DR. Might go up still.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2932 Postby Blow_Hard » Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:47 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Cross post, but think it's worth sharing here too.

Worth noting that across the EPS members and more or less the entirety of guidance, the stronger solutions have been a little slower and on the left side of the envelope while the weaker solutions have been quicker and towards the right side of the envelope. That kind of a signal indicates the future track of Laura may be heavily dependent upon its overall organization and intensity when it emerges into the Gulf and the short time period immediately afterwards.



That, plus it is depicting some interaction with the left over circulation from Marco. I have as much respect for the Euro as anyone but you cannot discount the fact that it was horrible at the outset of the evolution of Laura. I really hate to see anyone get clobbered by a major but my gut instinct is to throw my lot in with the Track of the GFS and the intensity of the HWRF. You just don't see atmospheric perfection in the GOM that often and IMHO Laura is going to take full advantage of the ripe conditions. I just know that if I lived in SE Tex or SW LA I would be doing my dead level best to everything rushed to completion and have my plans in place by the end of the day tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2933 Postby Nederlander » Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:49 pm

Blow_Hard wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:Cross post, but think it's worth sharing here too.

Worth noting that across the EPS members and more or less the entirety of guidance, the stronger solutions have been a little slower and on the left side of the envelope while the weaker solutions have been quicker and towards the right side of the envelope. That kind of a signal indicates the future track of Laura may be heavily dependent upon its overall organization and intensity when it emerges into the Gulf and the short time period immediately afterwards.



That, plus it is depicting some interaction with the left over circulation from Marco. I have as much respect for the Euro as anyone but you cannot discount the fact that it was horrible at the outset of the evolution of Laura. I really hate to see anyone get clobbered by a major but my gut instinct is to throw my lot in with the Track of the GFS and the intensity of the HWRF. You just don't see atmospheric perfection in the GOM that often and IMHO Laura is going to take full advantage of the ripe conditions. I just know that if I lived in SE Tex or SW LA I would be doing my dead level best to everything rushed to completion and have my plans in place by the end of the day tomorrow.

Yeah we finished preps today and heading out tomorrow night. I have a feeling Jefferson County will order an evacuation tomorrow. I want to get out ahead of the traffic and remnants of Marco as much as possible.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2934 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:51 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Voluntary evacuations just issued for residents in Lafayette Parish south of I-10. I'm well south of I-10 but should be safe from flooding/surge. Don't think I've seen a voluntary evac here since Lili 2002.


Ironically, Laura was the name that replaced Lili...
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2935 Postby FixySLN » Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:51 pm

On top of the madness...less outflow from Marco would mean a weaker ridge to push Laura, yea? There MAY be something to the eastern model shifts...or they could be doing nothing more than sparking conversation between bewildered forums lurkers hoping to find some certainty.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2936 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:52 pm

As far as the 11 pm advisory, I wouldn't change the track much at this time. However, I would bump up the intensities to a landfall intensity of 100 kt (and admit that is still conservative).
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2937 Postby Nederlander » Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:56 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:As far as the 11 pm advisory, I wouldn't change the track much at this time. However, I would bump up the intensities to a landfall intensity of 100 kt (and admit that is still conservative).

I was just about to ask if the next advisory would indicate a potential for a major. I agree with you, and they seemed to foreshadow that in the last disco.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2938 Postby gfsperpendicular » Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:56 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Cross post, but think it's worth sharing here too.

Worth noting that across the EPS members and more or less the entirety of guidance, the stronger solutions have been a little slower and on the left side of the envelope while the weaker solutions have been quicker and towards the right side of the envelope. That kind of a signal indicates the future track of Laura may be heavily dependent upon its overall organization and intensity when it emerges into the Gulf and the short time period immediately afterwards.


I disagree, I think the causation is the other way around. Storms that are slower and farther left simply get more time over the Gulf. Just my opinion though.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2939 Postby Blow_Hard » Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:56 pm

Nederlander wrote:
Blow_Hard wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:Cross post, but think it's worth sharing here too.

Worth noting that across the EPS members and more or less the entirety of guidance, the stronger solutions have been a little slower and on the left side of the envelope while the weaker solutions have been quicker and towards the right side of the envelope. That kind of a signal indicates the future track of Laura may be heavily dependent upon its overall organization and intensity when it emerges into the Gulf and the short time period immediately afterwards.



That, plus it is depicting some interaction with the left over circulation from Marco. I have as much respect for the Euro as anyone but you cannot discount the fact that it was horrible at the outset of the evolution of Laura. I really hate to see anyone get clobbered by a major but my gut instinct is to throw my lot in with the Track of the GFS and the intensity of the HWRF. You just don't see atmospheric perfection in the GOM that often and IMHO Laura is going to take full advantage of the ripe conditions. I just know that if I lived in SE Tex or SW' LA I would be doing my dead level best to everything rushed to completion and have my plans in place by the end of the day tomorrow.

Yeah we finished preps today and heading out tomorrow night. I have a feeling Jefferson County will order an evacuation tomorrow. I want to get out ahead of the traffic and remnants of Marco as much as possible.


That's the most prudent thing to do. I was prepared to do the same thing for Michael but my in-laws are elderly and refused to leave. My wife and I rode it out with them spending approx 2 hours in the NW eyewall and about 45 minutes in my F-I-L said he wished they had listened and got out. Unfortunately Laura has the potential to be the same type of storm. I really wish you the best and hopefully you'll be spared but you are a wise, wise man.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2940 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:57 pm

Nederlander wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:As far as the 11 pm advisory, I wouldn't change the track much at this time. However, I would bump up the intensities to a landfall intensity of 100 kt (and admit that is still conservative).

I was just about to ask if the next advisory would indicate a potential for a major. I agree with you, and they seemed to foreshadow that in the last disco.


There seems to be good model consensus on that right now, except with the Euro outlier. As far as track, it seems reasonable right now given the cone options.
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