
ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- alienstorm
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Rain will be an issue but this is going to be a major wind eventMBryant wrote:If the current forecast of 15 inches with a fast moving storm holds. That would not be bad. Harvey was 60+ and Imelda was 40+ and scattered. Now my only concern is a Rapid Intensification Cycle. RITA devastated the area with widespread trees snapped (Pines) or uprooted (Oaks).
Is there a place the most current individual models are located?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
supercane4867 wrote:I smell a center relocation coming. Reminds of Gustav.
That would place the central Texas coast in play too? Also, if it can close off a solid center with open water, no reason why it can't strengthen considerably south of Cuba.
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- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
GUANTANAMO BAY, CUBA NAVAL, CU, Cuba
(MUGM) 19-55N 075-12W 23M
Conditions at
Aug 23, 2020 - 08:51 PM EDT
2020.08.24 0051 UTC
Wind from the SE (130 degrees) at 48 MPH (42 KT) gusting to 62 MPH (54 KT)
Visibility 1 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Heavy rain
Mist
Precipitation last hour 0.52 inches
Temperature 75.9 F (24.4 C)
Dew Point 73.9 F (23.3 C)
Relative Humidity 93%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.84 in. Hg (1010 hPa)
(MUGM) 19-55N 075-12W 23M
Conditions at
Aug 23, 2020 - 08:51 PM EDT
2020.08.24 0051 UTC
Wind from the SE (130 degrees) at 48 MPH (42 KT) gusting to 62 MPH (54 KT)
Visibility 1 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Heavy rain
Mist
Precipitation last hour 0.52 inches
Temperature 75.9 F (24.4 C)
Dew Point 73.9 F (23.3 C)
Relative Humidity 93%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.84 in. Hg (1010 hPa)
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Cross post, but think it's worth sharing here too.
Worth noting that across the EPS members and more or less the entirety of guidance, the stronger solutions have been a little slower and on the left side of the envelope while the weaker solutions have been quicker and towards the right side of the envelope. That kind of a signal indicates the future track of Laura may be heavily dependent upon its overall organization and intensity when it emerges into the Gulf and the short time period immediately afterwards.
Worth noting that across the EPS members and more or less the entirety of guidance, the stronger solutions have been a little slower and on the left side of the envelope while the weaker solutions have been quicker and towards the right side of the envelope. That kind of a signal indicates the future track of Laura may be heavily dependent upon its overall organization and intensity when it emerges into the Gulf and the short time period immediately afterwards.
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Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
With the models all over the place, steering currents must be weak.
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Living at the intersection of Rita and Humberto and Ike and Harvey and Laura and Delta!
This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological products.
This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological products.
- PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Voluntary evacuations just issued for residents in Lafayette Parish south of I-10. I'm well south of I-10 but should be safe from flooding/surge. Don't think I've seen a voluntary evac here since Lili 2002.
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- galaxy401
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Laura has already left its mark. 13 deaths have been reported.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
galaxy401 wrote:Laura has already left its mark. 13 deaths have been reported.
Where? Haiti and DR? I saw some awful flooding from DR
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
MBryant wrote:With the models all over the place, steering currents must be weak.
Quite strong actually. The steering is pretty straightforward, it’s just not knowing how Laura will handle Cuba.
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- galaxy401
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
eastcoastFL wrote:galaxy401 wrote:Laura has already left its mark. 13 deaths have been reported.
Where? Haiti and DR? I saw some awful flooding from DR
9 have been reported in Haiti, the rest in the DR. Might go up still.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
1900hurricane wrote:Cross post, but think it's worth sharing here too.
Worth noting that across the EPS members and more or less the entirety of guidance, the stronger solutions have been a little slower and on the left side of the envelope while the weaker solutions have been quicker and towards the right side of the envelope. That kind of a signal indicates the future track of Laura may be heavily dependent upon its overall organization and intensity when it emerges into the Gulf and the short time period immediately afterwards.
That, plus it is depicting some interaction with the left over circulation from Marco. I have as much respect for the Euro as anyone but you cannot discount the fact that it was horrible at the outset of the evolution of Laura. I really hate to see anyone get clobbered by a major but my gut instinct is to throw my lot in with the Track of the GFS and the intensity of the HWRF. You just don't see atmospheric perfection in the GOM that often and IMHO Laura is going to take full advantage of the ripe conditions. I just know that if I lived in SE Tex or SW LA I would be doing my dead level best to everything rushed to completion and have my plans in place by the end of the day tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Blow_Hard wrote:1900hurricane wrote:Cross post, but think it's worth sharing here too.
Worth noting that across the EPS members and more or less the entirety of guidance, the stronger solutions have been a little slower and on the left side of the envelope while the weaker solutions have been quicker and towards the right side of the envelope. That kind of a signal indicates the future track of Laura may be heavily dependent upon its overall organization and intensity when it emerges into the Gulf and the short time period immediately afterwards.
That, plus it is depicting some interaction with the left over circulation from Marco. I have as much respect for the Euro as anyone but you cannot discount the fact that it was horrible at the outset of the evolution of Laura. I really hate to see anyone get clobbered by a major but my gut instinct is to throw my lot in with the Track of the GFS and the intensity of the HWRF. You just don't see atmospheric perfection in the GOM that often and IMHO Laura is going to take full advantage of the ripe conditions. I just know that if I lived in SE Tex or SW LA I would be doing my dead level best to everything rushed to completion and have my plans in place by the end of the day tomorrow.
Yeah we finished preps today and heading out tomorrow night. I have a feeling Jefferson County will order an evacuation tomorrow. I want to get out ahead of the traffic and remnants of Marco as much as possible.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
PTrackerLA wrote:Voluntary evacuations just issued for residents in Lafayette Parish south of I-10. I'm well south of I-10 but should be safe from flooding/surge. Don't think I've seen a voluntary evac here since Lili 2002.
Ironically, Laura was the name that replaced Lili...
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
On top of the madness...less outflow from Marco would mean a weaker ridge to push Laura, yea? There MAY be something to the eastern model shifts...or they could be doing nothing more than sparking conversation between bewildered forums lurkers hoping to find some certainty.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
As far as the 11 pm advisory, I wouldn't change the track much at this time. However, I would bump up the intensities to a landfall intensity of 100 kt (and admit that is still conservative).
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
CrazyC83 wrote:As far as the 11 pm advisory, I wouldn't change the track much at this time. However, I would bump up the intensities to a landfall intensity of 100 kt (and admit that is still conservative).
I was just about to ask if the next advisory would indicate a potential for a major. I agree with you, and they seemed to foreshadow that in the last disco.
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- gfsperpendicular
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
1900hurricane wrote:Cross post, but think it's worth sharing here too.
Worth noting that across the EPS members and more or less the entirety of guidance, the stronger solutions have been a little slower and on the left side of the envelope while the weaker solutions have been quicker and towards the right side of the envelope. That kind of a signal indicates the future track of Laura may be heavily dependent upon its overall organization and intensity when it emerges into the Gulf and the short time period immediately afterwards.
I disagree, I think the causation is the other way around. Storms that are slower and farther left simply get more time over the Gulf. Just my opinion though.
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I'm not sleeping, I'm waiting for the 0900 UTC advisory!
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Nederlander wrote:Blow_Hard wrote:1900hurricane wrote:Cross post, but think it's worth sharing here too.
Worth noting that across the EPS members and more or less the entirety of guidance, the stronger solutions have been a little slower and on the left side of the envelope while the weaker solutions have been quicker and towards the right side of the envelope. That kind of a signal indicates the future track of Laura may be heavily dependent upon its overall organization and intensity when it emerges into the Gulf and the short time period immediately afterwards.
That, plus it is depicting some interaction with the left over circulation from Marco. I have as much respect for the Euro as anyone but you cannot discount the fact that it was horrible at the outset of the evolution of Laura. I really hate to see anyone get clobbered by a major but my gut instinct is to throw my lot in with the Track of the GFS and the intensity of the HWRF. You just don't see atmospheric perfection in the GOM that often and IMHO Laura is going to take full advantage of the ripe conditions. I just know that if I lived in SE Tex or SW' LA I would be doing my dead level best to everything rushed to completion and have my plans in place by the end of the day tomorrow.
Yeah we finished preps today and heading out tomorrow night. I have a feeling Jefferson County will order an evacuation tomorrow. I want to get out ahead of the traffic and remnants of Marco as much as possible.
That's the most prudent thing to do. I was prepared to do the same thing for Michael but my in-laws are elderly and refused to leave. My wife and I rode it out with them spending approx 2 hours in the NW eyewall and about 45 minutes in my F-I-L said he wished they had listened and got out. Unfortunately Laura has the potential to be the same type of storm. I really wish you the best and hopefully you'll be spared but you are a wise, wise man.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Nederlander wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:As far as the 11 pm advisory, I wouldn't change the track much at this time. However, I would bump up the intensities to a landfall intensity of 100 kt (and admit that is still conservative).
I was just about to ask if the next advisory would indicate a potential for a major. I agree with you, and they seemed to foreshadow that in the last disco.
There seems to be good model consensus on that right now, except with the Euro outlier. As far as track, it seems reasonable right now given the cone options.
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