ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tiger_deF]

Amazing how Laura looked like garbage the for almost the entirety of her MDR treck, and now she's maintained an incredible outflow and convective appearance while on land

[FixySLN]

Appears to be moving dead west at the moment.

Stair climbing/wobbling? Looked to jog north and then back west.

[Highteeld]

Really would not be surprised to see a center relocation here shortly

[Highteeld]

So much convection on the southern edge of this storm could force a relocation of the low level center due to excessive heat release and sfc pressure fall tendencies

[psyclone]

Yeah I know they are. I think the NHC has made them too small in recent years. I can remember quite a few storms being outside the cone recently (like Dorian, Marco, and Laura) that would suggest there is more uncertainty in tracking TC's than currently thought.

Well, model guidance has also been trash in recent history.

Right, so increase the cone size

The mess ups of today increase the cone size of the future as the cone width is based upon prior average error. it has nothing to do with track uncertainty...ever the cone also does a poor job of communicating risk to the public. wx man is correct in suggesting the cone be done away with. i definitely concur. it is misunderstood constantly. My replacement for the cone is to utilize the wind probability graphics. what is the chance trees in my yard are going to bend and to what extent? now that is what i want to know. take no comfort in being outside the cone...the storm will deviate 1/3 of the time. even if it skirts the edge...half the hurricane is doing dirty work...outside the cone.

[Hammy]

Estimated position based on Cuban radar, looks like there might be some NW shear from Laura may having moved a bit out from the center of the upper anticyclone.

[Highteeld]

Well, model guidance has also been trash in recent history.

Right, so increase the cone size

The mess ups of today increase the cone size of the future as the cone width is based upon prior average error. it has nothing to do with track uncertainty...ever the cone also does a poor job of communicating risk to the public. wx man is correct in suggesting the cone be done away with. i definitely concur. it is misunderstood constantly. My replacement for the cone is to utilize the wind probability graphics. what is the chance trees in my yard are going to bend and to what extent? now that is what i want to know. take no comfort in being outside the cone...the storm will deviate 1/3 of the time. even if it skirts the edge...half the hurricane is doing dirty work...outside the cone.

Definitely agree with the 2nd half of what you said. The NWS as a whole is transitioning away from a deterministic (cone) approach when communicating weather forecasts into a probabilistic (wind probs) approach. Should help a lot

[psyclone]

it does look less impressive now..kind of a half a storm look. that's a nasty feederband over Jamaica

[HouTXmetro]

Has there been any discussion from the pro's about center relocation to the south?

[Highteeld]

Has there been any discussion from the pro's about center relocation to the south?

No, but this is highly suggestive of it already occurring

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1297755657056202752

[eastcoastFL]

I think we might be one advisory from having an “M” on the map

I'd have placed it on the map personally at landfall, but that's just me.

I thought they would at 11pm. I think you have the right idea. Id be surprised if its not there at 5am.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1297755657056202752

[eastcoastFL]

Based on the latest data and trends, I'm currently thinking Laura will make landfall somewhere near the TX/LA border as a major hurricane Wednesday night.

However anywhere between Corpus Christi, TX and New Orleans, LA should continue to monitor this storm closely. I'm still not feeling too safe here in Houston...hopefully we will have more confidence on the final expected landfall spot by tomorrow night.

I agree. My guess was around port Arthur at 130kts

[Keldeo1997]

LLC Center Detected

[Highteeld]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/747315316207517787/20200823_214347.jpg

LLC Center Detected

If that maintains itself as the low, this will be a doozy of a hurricane

[Hurricaneman]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/747315316207517787/20200823_214347.jpg

LLC Center Detected

Looks like we have a relocation halfway between Cuba and Jamaica

[psyclone]

Hurricane Dennis (2005) performed very well as it traveled southside cuba on a west northwestward heading.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1297763059096793088

[CrazyC83]

I'd put up a Hurricane Warning for western Cuba. It's only 5-10 kt away now and it's got open water.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1297763059096793088

Gustav was the first thing that came to mind when I saw that, even though the tail was less pronounced.