ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Amazing how Laura looked like garbage the for almost the entirety of her MDR treck, and now she's maintained an incredible outflow and convective appearance while on land
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Highteeld wrote:Appears to be moving dead west at the moment.
Stair climbing/wobbling? Looked to jog north and then back west.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Really would not be surprised to see a center relocation here shortly
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
So much convection on the southern edge of this storm could force a relocation of the low level center due to excessive heat release and sfc pressure fall tendencies
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Highteeld wrote:Nederlander wrote:Highteeld wrote:Yeah I know they are. I think the NHC has made them too small in recent years. I can remember quite a few storms being outside the cone recently (like Dorian, Marco, and Laura) that would suggest there is more uncertainty in tracking TC's than currently thought.
Well, model guidance has also been trash in recent history.
Right, so increase the cone size
The mess ups of today increase the cone size of the future as the cone width is based upon prior average error. it has nothing to do with track uncertainty...ever the cone also does a poor job of communicating risk to the public. wx man is correct in suggesting the cone be done away with. i definitely concur. it is misunderstood constantly. My replacement for the cone is to utilize the wind probability graphics. what is the chance trees in my yard are going to bend and to what extent? now that is what i want to know. take no comfort in being outside the cone...the storm will deviate 1/3 of the time. even if it skirts the edge...half the hurricane is doing dirty work...outside the cone.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

Estimated position based on Cuban radar, looks like there might be some NW shear from Laura may having moved a bit out from the center of the upper anticyclone.
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The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
psyclone wrote:Highteeld wrote:Nederlander wrote:Well, model guidance has also been trash in recent history.
Right, so increase the cone size
The mess ups of today increase the cone size of the future as the cone width is based upon prior average error. it has nothing to do with track uncertainty...ever the cone also does a poor job of communicating risk to the public. wx man is correct in suggesting the cone be done away with. i definitely concur. it is misunderstood constantly. My replacement for the cone is to utilize the wind probability graphics. what is the chance trees in my yard are going to bend and to what extent? now that is what i want to know. take no comfort in being outside the cone...the storm will deviate 1/3 of the time. even if it skirts the edge...half the hurricane is doing dirty work...outside the cone.
Definitely agree with the 2nd half of what you said. The NWS as a whole is transitioning away from a deterministic (cone) approach when communicating weather forecasts into a probabilistic (wind probs) approach. Should help a lot
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
it does look less impressive now..kind of a half a storm look. that's a nasty feederband over Jamaica
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- HouTXmetro
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Has there been any discussion from the pro's about center relocation to the south?
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
HouTXmetro wrote:Has there been any discussion from the pro's about center relocation to the south?
No, but this is highly suggestive of it already occurring
https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1297755657056202752
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
CrazyC83 wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:I think we might be one advisory from having an “M” on the map
I'd have placed it on the map personally at landfall, but that's just me.
I thought they would at 11pm. I think you have the right idea. Id be surprised if its not there at 5am.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
South Texas Storms wrote:Based on the latest data and trends, I'm currently thinking Laura will make landfall somewhere near the TX/LA border as a major hurricane Wednesday night.
However anywhere between Corpus Christi, TX and New Orleans, LA should continue to monitor this storm closely. I'm still not feeling too safe here in Houston...hopefully we will have more confidence on the final expected landfall spot by tomorrow night.
I agree. My guess was around port Arthur at 130kts
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Keldeo1997 wrote:https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/747315316207517787/20200823_214347.jpg
LLC Center Detected
If that maintains itself as the low, this will be a doozy of a hurricane
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
- Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Keldeo1997 wrote:https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/747315316207517787/20200823_214347.jpg
LLC Center Detected
Looks like we have a relocation halfway between Cuba and Jamaica
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Hurricane Dennis (2005) performed very well as it traveled southside cuba on a west northwestward heading.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I'd put up a Hurricane Warning for western Cuba. It's only 5-10 kt away now and it's got open water.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Gustav was the first thing that came to mind when I saw that, even though the tail was less pronounced.

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The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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