ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormlover2013]

Did a new center form ?

[Hurricaneman]

Did a new center form ?

According to ASCAT yes, half way between Cuba and Jamaica

[wx98]

Back in the Caribbean:

2:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 24
Location: 20.5°N 78.0°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

[Shell Mound]

Back in the Caribbean:

2:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 24
Location: 20.5°N 78.0°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

Hmm...why did the NHC apparently ignore ASCAT and side with the location of the old LLC? Radar, satellite, and surface observations support relocation.

[wx98]

Did a new center form ?

According to ASCAT yes, half way between Cuba and Jamaica

NHC maintaining advisories on the old LLC which passed through the mountains and has re-entered the water now.

[Hammy]

Back in the Caribbean:

2:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 24
Location: 20.5°N 78.0°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

[wx98]

Back in the Caribbean:

2:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 24
Location: 20.5°N 78.0°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

Hmm...why did the NHC apparently ignore ASCAT and side with the location of the old LLC? Radar, satellite, and surface observations support relocation.

I’m sure they know what they are doing. They nearly always do.

[CrazyC83]

A second ASCAT pass also supports a position around 19.6N 78.0W (this image was at 03Z).

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1297771158088163329




Derek is not buying that its a relocation

[wx98]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1297771158088163329

Derek is not buying that its a relocation

Neither is NHC...

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro hour 72. Landfall will be close near the TX/LA border. 976mb.


More flip flops from our favorite global model!

[jaxfladude]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1297771158088163329

Derek is not buying that its a relocation

may this be the start of some good and needed news and a weaker Laura throughout her future track...this system has already done enough damage and sadly deaths if reports are confirmed...

[Shell Mound]

Back in the Caribbean:

2:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 24
Location: 20.5°N 78.0°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

Hmm...why did the NHC apparently ignore ASCAT and side with the location of the old LLC? Radar, satellite, and surface observations support relocation.

I’m sure they know what they are doing. They nearly always do.

Maybe the NHC is waiting for persistence. Usually the NHC likes to sit back and observe before declaring an official reformation.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1297771158088163329

Derek is not buying that its a relocation

may this be the start of some good and needed news and a weaker Laura throughout her future track

...on the basis of a sole report?

[Visioen]

Not a 100%, but looks like this post might age pretty well

I'm thinking about a worst case scenario where the LLC smashes itself against the hight terrain on the eastern side of Cuba, after which a new one forms under the convection of the MLC and the system goes just south of Cuba over the extremely warm waters there. Not saying this will happen, just a hypothetical scenario that seems possible to me.

[Hurricane Mike]

As of 2am, Laura is now over the Caribbean Sea south of eastern Cuba. Looks like Stewart has the 5am discussion.

[Shell Mound]

Ugh:

 https://twitter.com/madanboukman/status/1297743002530713601



 https://twitter.com/Noticias0241/status/1297739511284355077



 https://twitter.com/Stanleylucas01/status/1297728305702014976



 https://twitter.com/Stanleylucas01/status/1297727873307095051



 https://twitter.com/Stanleylucas01/status/1297727385387712512

[jaxfladude]

Hmm...why did the NHC apparently ignore ASCAT and side with the location of the old LLC? Radar, satellite, and surface observations support relocation.

I’m sure they know what they are doing. They nearly always do.

Maybe the NHC is waiting for persistence. Usually the NHC likes to sit back and observe before declaring an official reformation.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1297771158088163329

Derek is not buying that its a relocation

may this be the start of some good and needed news and a weaker Laura throughout her future track

...on the basis of a sole report?

"MAY this be...."

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1297771158088163329

Derek is not buying that its a relocation

Neither is NHC...

Pass was almost four hours ago, it may have bounced offshore and then reformed outside the convection thanks to the terrain--stuff like this has happened with storms passing Hawaii as well.

[sponger]

I have no idea what Ortt is talking about, it seems a pretty clear and definitive center relocation based on ASCAT. We are in big trouble. Ignore all models until later this morning. The 2pm Euro is going to be a critical one for evac plans. The zoo begins Tuesday.

[stormlover2013]

So nhc adjust track back west ?