ATL: LAURA - Models

[AerospaceEng]

12z euro @24hr is SW than yesterday's 12z run at the same timeframe.

And stronger...

Looks weaker.

You’re right, I was accidentally comparing with yesterday’s 12z.

[NDG]

Final landfall LA/TX border.

[tolakram]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Let's let the run finish.

Down to 975mb and rapidly deepening by hour 54. Actually slightly stronger than the 00z at landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/6yiUOnk.png

For comparison, 00z ECMWF was ~972 mb at landfall. 12z is 962mb, very slightly more west.

[supercane4867]

12z euro is very similar to GFS but a bit more west at landfall.

[superfly]

Let's let the run finish.

Down to 975mb and rapidly deepening by hour 54. Actually slightly stronger than the 00z at landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/6yiUOnk.png

For comparison, 00z ECMWF was ~972 mb at landfall. 12z is 962mb, very slightly more west.

It's an East shift compared to 6z.

[PTrackerLA]

Every 12z model is east of the TX/LA border, time to kick my prep into high gear here in Lafayette.

[tolakram]

Take non model discussion to the discussion thread and stop with the personal attacks and insults.

Pay attention to your local authorities and the NHC, the model runs should not be used for critical decisions.

[stormlover2013]

Every 12z model is east of the TX/LA border, time to kick my prep into high gear here in Lafayette.

Models in pretty good agreement, tx-la border

[BobHarlem]

Kind of amazing how the Euro does a hard right in Arkansas then spits it out into the Atlantic Across Tennessee and North Carolina, still fairly well intact. 995mb when it reaches the outer banks.... and that's after traversing the entire length of Tennessee and North Carolina.

[Nederlander]

Hard to ignore the consistency at this point. I was a bit surprised that the good initialization didn’t lead to a more westward track. Also surprised that the 12z runs had an overall weaker storm. Better news for SETX, but not out of the woods certainly.

Interesting note, however is this is the third day in a row that the 12z runs favored an eastern solution, while the later runs trended back west. Beginning to think that flipping may be over with now, but we shall see!

[jasons2k]

Euro initialized well, but then look at the 6hour location. It's too far to the North and East. It appears Laura will exit Cuba south and west of the models plots. Just extrapolating that along the same curve, it comes up towards Galveston.

[HouTXmetro]

Well we FINALLY have consensus. Had these models been in agreement like this earlier this morning I would have saved time and money wasted trying to prepare. Oh well, it comes with the territory. Thoughts and prayers to those in the storms path.

[abk_0710]

What areas would you say still need to watch for landfall? Should SELA be concerned?

[davidiowx]

Well we FINALLY have consensus. Had these models been in agreement like this earlier this morning I would have saved time and money wasted trying to prepare. Oh well, it comes with the territory. Thoughts and prayers to those in the storms path.

Far from it and this kind of mindset is dangerous! Please do not consider Houston out of the woods yet. It simply isn't true.

[Stormcenter]

IMO everyone from SE TX to SE LA is still in
play.

[hershels]

IMO everyone from SE TX to SE LA is still in
play.

question: how do you define SE Texas? In my mind that's Golden Triangle

[KWT]

Let's let the run finish.

Down to 975mb and rapidly deepening by hour 54. Actually slightly stronger than the 00z at landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/6yiUOnk.png

For comparison, 00z ECMWF was ~972 mb at landfall. 12z is 962mb, very slightly more west.

Yeah the 12z ECM is stronger, getting something of a broad agreement on the globals around 950-960. HWRF is stronger and probably gives a good indication of what is possible if everything aligns.

[jaguars_22]

So looks like the euro ensembles are still in between port o Connor and Galveston?? I saw Ryan Maue just post them. If the evening models go back to Texas I am going to believe someone hacked the models system

[wxman22]