ATL: LAURA - Models

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Hammy
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3321 Postby Hammy » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:39 pm

Fancy1001 wrote:Look at the NAM 3km for a good laugh.


Putting the actual pressure value aside, I'm noticing a trend with this and a few other models towards peaking over water and then weakening some before landfall.
Last edited by Hammy on Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3322 Postby Fancy1001 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:39 pm

HWRF is off to the races, and looks to have a decent start.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3323 Postby Fancy1001 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:40 pm

Hammy wrote:
Fancy1001 wrote:Look at the NAM 3km for a good laugh.


Putting the actual pressure value aside, I'm noticing a trend with this and a few other models towards peaking over water and then weakening some before landfall.

Yeah, wonder why that is?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3324 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:41 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:

Looks really odd . It’s all over the place, initialized East. Jumps west. Jumps south then jumps over Cuba...


Could be a sign that there are multiple centers within a broad COC? Who knows. It does look weird. Hoping it is multiple centers, could slow down intensification if that is the case. Here's to hoping.

But in real life there are no signs of such. And it shouldn't be jumping around Cuba in 12 hours. In 12 hours it should be in the GOM.


I thought there were some signs while it was over eastern Cuba of multiple centers. I am probably just having a brain fart moment, long day of programming will do that haha. :lol: HMON has been all over the place the last few runs. I sadly believe the HWRF might have a better grip on it, as it seems to hold on to one true center.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3325 Postby Nederlander » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:41 pm

18z HMON can be thrown out I presume?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3326 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:42 pm

HMON basically loses the low it starts with and then juts around trying to reform another, which it may finally do once leaving Cuba.

At least that part of the run isn't matching reality since Laura is already coming in stronger and plane isn't even at the center yet.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3327 Postby Kazmit » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:42 pm

Nederlander wrote:18z HMON can be thrown out I presume?

It's drunk. Go home, HMON. :lol:
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3328 Postby SoupBone » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:42 pm

Nederlander wrote:18z HMON can be thrown out I presume?



I mean, it certainly doesn't inspire confidence, tap dancing all over Cuba for over 12 hours.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3329 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:42 pm

HMON is weakening the storm in the middle of the GOM, any idea why this is happening? METS? Shear or dry air in play? Very confusing run to say the least.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3330 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:42 pm

Fancy1001 wrote:
Hammy wrote:
Fancy1001 wrote:Look at the NAM 3km for a good laugh.


Putting the actual pressure value aside, I'm noticing a trend with this and a few other models towards peaking over water and then weakening some before landfall.

Yeah, wonder why that is?

The waters of of LA/MS I believe are shallower and thus less overall OHC. They have a lesser threshold of about 910mb in stead of 880-890mb. However it's not going to matter if the system is moving at a steady clip.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3331 Postby catskillfire51 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:43 pm

Fancy1001 wrote:
Hammy wrote:
Fancy1001 wrote:Look at the NAM 3km for a good laugh.


Putting the actual pressure value aside, I'm noticing a trend with this and a few other models towards peaking over water and then weakening some before landfall.

Yeah, wonder why that is?


I believe because the Gulf doesn't have as much water depth around the coast.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3332 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:43 pm

Fancy1001 wrote:
Hammy wrote:
Fancy1001 wrote:Look at the NAM 3km for a good laugh.


Putting the actual pressure value aside, I'm noticing a trend with this and a few other models towards peaking over water and then weakening some before landfall.

Yeah, wonder why that is?

Probably due to the hard right the models show that shunts it into landfall in LA. The trough steering it may be imparting some shear.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3333 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:45 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:HMON is weakening the storm in the middle of the GOM, any idea why this is happening? METS? Shear or dry air in play? Very confusing run to say the least.


Basically its a duff run from the very get go, its :Can:

We will see what recon finds soon enough...but reality is I think HMON has just gone off the deep end on its 18z run...simple as that.

Basically it kills off the current LLC 3hrs ago and then flings around the next 12hrs trying to form a new one within the broad gyre, finally manages to pull somrthing together in another 30hrs or so.

However given the LLC clearly hasn't died 3hrs ago, its a trash run and everything afterwards is just multiplying upon that starting error by HMON meaning its trying to play catch up.
Last edited by KWT on Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3334 Postby tailgater » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:46 pm

LSU Saint wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
tolakram wrote:GFS 18Z run
https://i.imgur.com/M1hPPqR.gif



Boy it just hooks right, right at the end turning north. That run has been the first GFS run that I can recall that didn't flip flop.


What makes this hook as it approaches Texas like that? Is there a chance that doesn’t hook and just plows on through?


Millions of folk are gonna be on pins and needles waiting for that northward turn, can you say stress and anxiety.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3335 Postby Nederlander » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:47 pm

HWRF looking pretty realistic through 15hr
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3336 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:48 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Fancy1001 wrote:
Hammy wrote:
Putting the actual pressure value aside, I'm noticing a trend with this and a few other models towards peaking over water and then weakening some before landfall.

Yeah, wonder why that is?

Probably due to the hard right the models show that shunts it into landfall in LA. The trough steering it may be imparting some shear.

Yeah the steering is a big question mark after Laura enters the GOM.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3337 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:50 pm

HWRF makes much more sense with how it moves across western Cuba. I think HMON is a bad run.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3338 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:52 pm

18z GFS hours 00-15:
Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3339 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:52 pm

21 hours HWRF

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3340 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:59 pm

Nederlander wrote:18z HMON can be thrown out I presume?


I don’t think anyone is taking it seriously. It’s a mess
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