ATL: LAURA - Models

[Hammy]

Look at the NAM 3km for a good laugh.

Putting the actual pressure value aside, I'm noticing a trend with this and a few other models towards peaking over water and then weakening some before landfall.

[Fancy1001]

HWRF is off to the races, and looks to have a decent start.

[Fancy1001]

Look at the NAM 3km for a good laugh.

Putting the actual pressure value aside, I'm noticing a trend with this and a few other models towards peaking over water and then weakening some before landfall.

Yeah, wonder why that is?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks really odd . It’s all over the place, initialized East. Jumps west. Jumps south then jumps over Cuba...

Could be a sign that there are multiple centers within a broad COC? Who knows. It does look weird. Hoping it is multiple centers, could slow down intensification if that is the case. Here's to hoping.

But in real life there are no signs of such. And it shouldn't be jumping around Cuba in 12 hours. In 12 hours it should be in the GOM.

I thought there were some signs while it was over eastern Cuba of multiple centers. I am probably just having a brain fart moment, long day of programming will do that haha. HMON has been all over the place the last few runs. I sadly believe the HWRF might have a better grip on it, as it seems to hold on to one true center.

[Nederlander]

18z HMON can be thrown out I presume?

[KWT]

HMON basically loses the low it starts with and then juts around trying to reform another, which it may finally do once leaving Cuba.

At least that part of the run isn't matching reality since Laura is already coming in stronger and plane isn't even at the center yet.

[Kazmit]

18z HMON can be thrown out I presume?

It's drunk. Go home, HMON.

[SoupBone]

18z HMON can be thrown out I presume?

I mean, it certainly doesn't inspire confidence, tap dancing all over Cuba for over 12 hours.

[tarheelprogrammer]

HMON is weakening the storm in the middle of the GOM, any idea why this is happening? METS? Shear or dry air in play? Very confusing run to say the least.

[Kingarabian]

Look at the NAM 3km for a good laugh.

Putting the actual pressure value aside, I'm noticing a trend with this and a few other models towards peaking over water and then weakening some before landfall.

Yeah, wonder why that is?

The waters of of LA/MS I believe are shallower and thus less overall OHC. They have a lesser threshold of about 910mb in stead of 880-890mb. However it's not going to matter if the system is moving at a steady clip.

[catskillfire51]

Look at the NAM 3km for a good laugh.

Putting the actual pressure value aside, I'm noticing a trend with this and a few other models towards peaking over water and then weakening some before landfall.

Yeah, wonder why that is?

I believe because the Gulf doesn't have as much water depth around the coast.

[cheezyWXguy]

Look at the NAM 3km for a good laugh.

Putting the actual pressure value aside, I'm noticing a trend with this and a few other models towards peaking over water and then weakening some before landfall.

Yeah, wonder why that is?

Probably due to the hard right the models show that shunts it into landfall in LA. The trough steering it may be imparting some shear.

[KWT]

HMON is weakening the storm in the middle of the GOM, any idea why this is happening? METS? Shear or dry air in play? Very confusing run to say the least.

Basically its a duff run from the very get go, its

We will see what recon finds soon enough...but reality is I think HMON has just gone off the deep end on its 18z run...simple as that.

Basically it kills off the current LLC 3hrs ago and then flings around the next 12hrs trying to form a new one within the broad gyre, finally manages to pull somrthing together in another 30hrs or so.

However given the LLC clearly hasn't died 3hrs ago, its a trash run and everything afterwards is just multiplying upon that starting error by HMON meaning its trying to play catch up.

[tailgater]

GFS 18Z run
https://i.imgur.com/M1hPPqR.gif

Boy it just hooks right, right at the end turning north. That run has been the first GFS run that I can recall that didn't flip flop.

What makes this hook as it approaches Texas like that? Is there a chance that doesn’t hook and just plows on through?

Millions of folk are gonna be on pins and needles waiting for that northward turn, can you say stress and anxiety.

[Nederlander]

HWRF looking pretty realistic through 15hr

[Kingarabian]

Putting the actual pressure value aside, I'm noticing a trend with this and a few other models towards peaking over water and then weakening some before landfall.

Yeah, wonder why that is?

Probably due to the hard right the models show that shunts it into landfall in LA. The trough steering it may be imparting some shear.

Yeah the steering is a big question mark after Laura enters the GOM.

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF makes much more sense with how it moves across western Cuba. I think HMON is a bad run.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hours 00-15:

[eastcoastFL]

21 hours HWRF

[eastcoastFL]

18z HMON can be thrown out I presume?

I don’t think anyone is taking it seriously. It’s a mess