ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3521 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:52 pm

I knew it, the LLC is further north and west than what the NHC estimated.

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Last edited by NDG on Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3522 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:53 pm

Extrapolated pressure currently down to 995/996 mbar.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3523 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:53 pm

Question for the mets, are those SFMR readings legit?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3524 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:54 pm

aspen wrote:Extrapolated pressure currently down to 995/996 mbar.


Not sure those are legit. NOAA planes tending to read too low. AF will be there in an hour.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3525 Postby Nederlander » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:55 pm

Image

Coming ashore
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3526 Postby Frank P » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:56 pm

NDG wrote:I knew it, the LLC is further north and west than what the NHC estimated.

https://i.imgur.com/PXotOxW.png

look at the last frame on this radar loop, could this be the center?
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3527 Postby cfisher » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:56 pm

NDG wrote:I knew it, the LLC is further north and west than what the NHC estimated.

https://i.imgur.com/PXotOxW.png

Not really since it's a broad LLC
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3528 Postby Red eye » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:57 pm

I can't say we are looking forward to this one. The GFS and most models have been lined up on us for a while. The worst thing about hurricanes is losing electricity. After Rita we were out for about a week. This path and ultimately I think intensity remind me of rita. Its ashamed what Rita did to holly beach, sabine refuge, and sulphur. Sabine used to be mainly 130k acres of freshwater marsh. Now its mostly salt. It might literally be beachfront after this freight train. We'll batten down the hatches, pray and be ready for whatever. Catastrophes build character and help prioritize things, which isn't half bad
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3529 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:59 pm

Based on past experience, Western Cuba's impact on developing tropical systems is slim to nonexistent.

Hurricane Lili was a CAT2 while crossing Cuba and it immediately started to rapidly intensify thereafter.

Image

However, it can cause permeant structure damage to mature storms(Gustav 08) but that obviously doesn't apply to Laura.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3530 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:59 pm

Noaa plane missed the center to the east. it is nearly onshore. hopefully the AF place gets there for a pass before landfall ( again) .

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3531 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:00 pm

Frank P wrote:
NDG wrote:I knew it, the LLC is further north and west than what the NHC estimated.

https://i.imgur.com/PXotOxW.png

look at the last frame on this radar loop, could this be the center?
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes


Yes, that's exactly it, but watch the NHC call it another mesovorticity like it was calling the CoC that came ashore last near right over Gitmo but were still calling the main CoC further south, Eric Blake spanked by butt last night on Twitter about it :lol:
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3532 Postby lrak » Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:01 pm

to me it looks like it's right over the Isle of Youth?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3533 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:01 pm

998mb near the center

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3534 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:01 pm

Central pressure has likely fallen to 995mb or below.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3535 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:01 pm

cfisher wrote:
NDG wrote:I knew it, the LLC is further north and west than what the NHC estimated.

https://i.imgur.com/PXotOxW.png

Not really since it's a broad LLC


:lol: It clearly missed the LLC.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3536 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:02 pm

tolakram wrote:
aspen wrote:Extrapolated pressure currently down to 995/996 mbar.


Not sure those are legit. NOAA planes tending to read too low. AF will be there in an hour.

The NOAA plane recorded a minimum extrapolated pressure of 994 mbar, so it’ll probably actually be around 999-997 mbar.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3537 Postby cfisher » Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:02 pm

That feature is just a meso spinning within a broader low. It's not necessarily where the core will tighten up given where convection is
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3538 Postby Blinhart » Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:02 pm

Red eye wrote:I can't say we are looking forward to this one. The GFS and most models have been lined up on us for a while. The worst thing about hurricanes is losing electricity. After Rita we were out for about a week. This path and ultimately I think intensity remind me of rita. Its ashamed what Rita did to holly beach, sabine refuge, and sulphur. Sabine used to be mainly 130k acres of freshwater marsh. Now its mostly salt. It might literally be beachfront after this freight train. We'll batten down the hatches, pray and be ready for whatever. Catastrophes build character and help prioritize things, which isn't half bad


Well Red eye, I live close to Capitol Manufacturing and Cleco's Sub-station, so I wasn't out of electricity for more than 4 days if I remember correctly. Don't know which part of Crowley you live at, but if you live South of the tracks, I think you would might be put in the Mandatory Evacuation area. Stay safe, I am nervous about this system.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3539 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:03 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Central pressure has likely fallen to 995mb or below.


I agree, when recon's extrap pressure recorded 995 mb SFMR was showing 35 knot winds and flight level winds over 30 knots as well.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3540 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:04 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Based on past experience, Western Cuba's impact on developing tropical systems is slim to nonexistent.

Hurricane Lili was a CAT2 while crossing Cuba and it immediately started to rapidly intensify thereafter.

https://i.imgur.com/mHpK5sO.gif

However, it can cause permeant structure damage to mature storms(Gustav 08) but that obviously doesn't apply to Laura.


Coincidentally, Laura replaced Lili after 2002.
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