ATL: LAURA - Models

[shiny-pebble]

Huh..... FWIW....

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[Kingarabian]

18z HWRF hour 33:

[tarheelprogrammer]

Huh..... FWIW.... https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200824/70edbd675a811e0d03f0d58354715c57.jpg

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What is the limiting factors?

[supercane4867]

Eye starts to clear out @30hr on HWRF.

[eastcoastFL]

HMON is weakening the storm in the middle of the GOM, any idea why this is happening? METS? Shear or dry air in play? Very confusing run to say the least.

Basically its a duff run from the very get go, its

We will see what recon finds soon enough...but reality is I think HMON has just gone off the deep end on its 18z run...simple as that.

Basically it kills off the current LLC 3hrs ago and then flings around the next 12hrs trying to form a new one within the broad gyre, finally manages to pull somrthing together in another 30hrs or so.

However given the LLC clearly hasn't died 3hrs ago, its a trash run and everything afterwards is just multiplying upon that starting error by HMON meaning its trying to play catch up.

HMON initialized at 1004mb and recon just found 997mb. I don’t think the center is correct either. It’s probably just a garbage run. HWRF seems more on point

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1298034196712239104

[eastcoastFL]

Huh..... FWIW.... https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200824/70edbd675a811e0d03f0d58354715c57.jpg

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Looks like Marco

[shiny-pebble]

Huh..... FWIW.... https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200824/70edbd675a811e0d03f0d58354715c57.jpg

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What is the limiting factors?

Maybe shear?? But I just think this whole run was off Laura is more organized than it initialized

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[Steve]

Huh..... FWIW.... https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200824/70edbd675a811e0d03f0d58354715c57.jpg

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Looks like Marco

Maybe the HMON team was feeling lazy and just did a copy/paste and moved it across the map.

[bohai]

Putting the actual pressure value aside, I'm noticing a trend with this and a few other models towards peaking over water and then weakening some before landfall.

Yeah, wonder why that is?

Probably due to the hard right the models show that shunts it into landfall in LA. The trough steering it may be imparting some shear.

According to Google Earth, it is roughly 100 miles before water gets to over 1000 ft deep. 200 ft is 84 miles, 100 ft is 50 miles, so definitely very shallow.

[Fancy1001]

Looks like the Hwrf will be taking laura west into texas considering how much more south it is.

[Kingarabian]

18z HWRF hour 45:

[Steve]

HWRF sort of between WNW/NW at 45 hours. Down to 946 around 26.85 / 91.6

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2418&fh=45

[Highteeld]

Hwrf short term forecast (next 12-15 hours or so) for Laura looked realistic

[supercane4867]

18z HWRF is slightly more south than 12z at the same timeframe.

[SoupBone]

Looks like the Hwrf will be taking laura west into texas considering how much more south it is.

If it follows the GFS, it should turn sharply toward the end.

[Highteeld]

about 10-12 knots of shear over Laura at hour 45 using the entire hwrf nested window

[tolakram]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Very poor initialization on the HMON, thus the low ball intensity.

[supercane4867]

CDO is colder than 12z