ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4521 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:30 pm

18Z GFS on approach, showing the ridge slightly stronger.
Big kicker, its hanging more inside the AWRB.
Indicates shear would likely be less on landfall, hence a stronger Laura.
Areas around Houston get your everything together.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4522 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:32 pm

GCANE wrote:18Z GFS on approach, showing the ridge slightly stronger.
Big kicker, its hanging more inside the AWRB.
Indicates shear would likely be less on landfall, hence a stronger Laura.
Areas around Houston get your everything together.

Are you thinking the path should end up west of what the gfs shows, given its depiction of the high?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4523 Postby IsabelaWeather » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:33 pm

Blow_Hard wrote:
Blinhart wrote:Ok, just finished with doing the sand bags to the back door, cleaned out the gutters, and brought in the majority of all furniture from outside. Tomorrow morning after waking up and seeing what is going on, will decided if I need to sand bag the 2 front doors, got a old shower door to dam up my back french doors. Hopefully I won't have to do those things and this thing will be going closer to Houston than closer to me.



I'm sure you already know to do this but please make sure to take photos all around the exterior and interior of your house for Insurance purposes.



This is interesting. I do flood adjusting so I am thinking I will get sent out. Taking pics during the flood helps the most. (Of course if you are in evacuation zone, dont stay)
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4524 Postby ColdMiser123 » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:33 pm

NotoSans wrote:NOAA aircraft has descended to flight-level and is about to conduct a NW-SE pass. Note that it's doing a non-standard 750mb mission so the conversion factor applicable to flight-level winds would be slightly lower than 0.9.


Plane is flying at ~2500 meters, which means we would expect to see winds around ~1.04 times what we would typically see at 700 hPa (~3000 meters), and this implies a ~0.86 to ~0.87 conversion factor to estimate surface wind in the eyewall.

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4525 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:36 pm

Laura has taken over the gulf. It’s her show now

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4526 Postby Rail Dawg » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:38 pm

Am going to head for Sabine Pass and check out Cameron, LA at some point soon. This is going to be a recon mission in but will only make a stand in a parking garage closest to the eye.

This is a video from the Michael chasers I warned to stay in the Panama City parking garage with me. They did not listen. If they are on this forum please know I am not being critical. I understand the chase and over 14 hurricanes have become older and wiser.

[Youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XA5OQHWx1Y[/Youtube]
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4527 Postby TallyTracker » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:39 pm

BobHarlem wrote:
IsabelaWeather wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:If you are chasing them, you dont always get a cozy place to hangout like a parking garage...good chasers find it and stay alive, natural or manamade structures.



The Cameron area is a literal death sentence to chase. There is nothing there to protect you from surge or wind. There are also very, very few roads. I would not leave Sabine Pass.

Mark Sudduth put a remote camera in Cameron, and is setting one up in Holly Beach right now, but not hanging around there for it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51j0t6L ... e=youtu.be


Mark does it right! I love his approach. The video he got of Mexico Beach during Michael both gave me chills and made me sick at the same time.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4528 Postby IsabelaWeather » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:39 pm

BobHarlem wrote:
IsabelaWeather wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:If you are chasing them, you dont always get a cozy place to hangout like a parking garage...good chasers find it and stay alive, natural or manamade structures.



The Cameron area is a literal death sentence to chase. There is nothing there to protect you from surge or wind. There are also very, very few roads. I would not leave Sabine Pass.

Mark Sudduth put a remote camera in Cameron, and is setting one up in Holly Beach right now, but not hanging around there for it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51j0t6L ... e=youtu.be


Brings back memories. My wife and I took our RV and stayed on Holly Beach for a few days. Drove all over the area, watching Mark drive around brings back memories. I wonder how much different the landscape will be in 48 hours.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4529 Postby Blinhart » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:41 pm

Rail Dawg wrote:Am going to head for Sabine Pass and check out Cameron, LA at some point soon. This is going to be a recon mission in but will only make a stand in a parking garage closest to the eye.

This is a video from the Michael chasers I warned to stay in the Panama City parking garage with me. They did not listen. If they are on this forum please know I am not being critical. I understand the chase and over 14 hurricanes have become older and wiser.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XA5OQHWx1Y


You won't actually be able to get to Cameron from Sabine Pass (there is a ferry, but I don't know if it is running), but it isn't that far of a drive, if you drive up from Holly Beach, you might find a spot around Hackberry.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4530 Postby cfisher » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:42 pm

Seems like it might be a fairly broad eye.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4531 Postby Blinhart » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:43 pm

IsabelaWeather wrote:
BobHarlem wrote:
IsabelaWeather wrote:

The Cameron area is a literal death sentence to chase. There is nothing there to protect you from surge or wind. There are also very, very few roads. I would not leave Sabine Pass.

Mark Sudduth put a remote camera in Cameron, and is setting one up in Holly Beach right now, but not hanging around there for it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51j0t6L ... e=youtu.be


Brings back memories. My wife and I took our RV and stayed on Holly Beach for a few days. Drove all over the area, watching Mark drive around brings back memories. I wonder how much different the landscape will be in 48 hours.

Most likely underwater with all the buildings from Holly Beach miles inland just like Rita did.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4532 Postby ColdMiser123 » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:44 pm

Interested to see how asymmetric the structure still is.

Eastern semicircle will almost certainly be stronger, but any progress on the western side would indicate an inner core making steps toward closing off, and a prelude to potential steeper intensification.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4533 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:45 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:Interested to see how asymmetric the structure still is.

Eastern semicircle will almost certainly be stronger, but any progress on the western side would indicate an inner core making progress toward closing off, and a prelude to potential steeper intensification.


As you typed this, brand new hot tower racing around to close off the western eyewall.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4534 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:46 pm

BobHarlem wrote:
IsabelaWeather wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:If you are chasing them, you dont always get a cozy place to hangout like a parking garage...good chasers find it and stay alive, natural or manamade structures.

Lets see where josh ends up

The Cameron area is a literal death sentence to chase. There is nothing there to protect you from surge or wind. There are also very, very few roads. I would not leave Sabine Pass.

Mark Sudduth put a remote camera in Cameron, and is setting one up in Holly Beach right now, but not hanging around there for it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51j0t6L ... e=youtu.be
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4536 Postby shiny-pebble » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:48 pm

Lots of hot towers firing off in the Northwest.... Should have a closed core soon...

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4537 Postby ColdMiser123 » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:49 pm

Significantly stronger NW side compared to earlier passes this morning, even taking the slightly higher wind conversion into account.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4538 Postby cfisher » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:49 pm

ADT has the track at 300/14 so a little more north and perhaps a little slower than expected.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4539 Postby FixySLN » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:50 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:Laura has taken over the gulf. It’s her show now

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL132020/16/GOES16-AL132020-16-1000x1000.gif?hash=21453


Can I have the URL for this loop? Can't find this angle on the NOAA site.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4540 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:51 pm

Central pressure is probably 985mb or below. Should get the reading in the next set of data.
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