ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneEdouard]

11PM advisory bumped peak intensity to 105kt

Still conservative, IMO.

[Blinhart]

Landfall looks like Holley Beach

[Highteeld]

NHC is leaving room for a cat 4 landfall i'd reckon

[cfisher]

I think minimum pressure matters more than wind speed for Laura because it will determine the type of surge we see.

[Blinhart]

11PM advisory bumped peak intensity to 105kt

But that line is a couple hours from landfall, so if she is continuously strengthening up to landfall, there is a chance she could get to 130 -135 MPH before landfall.

[MarioProtVI]

According to the discussion they upped to 80 kt because they’re getting data from an AF flight that for some reason is not transmitting publicly.

[Hammy]

According to the discussion they upped to 80 kt because they’re getting data from an AF flight that for some reason is not transmitting publicly.

Last update on TT is from 7 minutes ago and the plane had just passed the center so they're probably receiving the data in real time rather than in the ten minute blocks the public is. More than likely the plane reached the eastern eyewall in time for the advisory but midway through the data section thats released.

[eastcoastFL]

11PM advisory bumped peak intensity to 105kt

Still conservative, IMO.

They mentioned in the discussion it could rapidly intensify 25-30kts in 24 hours. That's scary enough but truthfully it could easily be more. No matter how we look at it none of this is good news. Folks need to have their preps and Evacs done by tomorrow afternoon. This is not a drill

[wkwally]

I am still not going to let my guard down until after landfall as a little wobble to the west or east could mean a big change for this area.

[KC7NEC]

Im very concerned the refineries at Port Arthur will be the major story after this storm.

[Kingarabian]

According to the discussion they upped to 80 kt because they’re getting data from an AF flight that for some reason is not transmitting publicly.

Quite odd that the AF plane is not transmitting publicly.

[FLpanhandle91]

77 knots unflagged in eastern eyewall. NHC received this info real time and made the jump to 90mph.

[cfisher]

Strengthening might be on pause until it can shrink the RMW.

[Steve]

Maybe some shear before landfall?

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1298414130404171779

It’s along the TX coastline. I don’t see any impacts until possibly the very end of the over water track.

And by then I think its forecast to start pulling away as she's coming in. I guess it's all about timing

It was supposed to back up enough for Marco to get going too. It was a little more pesky though. It left a piece back that was spinning and split back but the trough kind of only slowly migrated west and held Marco at bay and even sheared the top off and continues to do so even now. Marco partially went under the eastern edge of the high clouds moving NE along the trough edge as you could see at the end of daylight visible. But he was pulling SW to S at that point and is at a much lower steering level than the east side flow. You know the sw flow was strong with the storms it had Marco firing 100-200 miles to the northeast this afternoon. We only have a day and 3 hours until landfall. And with the east edge of the trough adjacent and even part of the boundary of the anticyclone over Laura, how much can it pull back now? I don’t know. I’m not trying to make or refute the argument either way. I’m just observing. Lots of lightning with that first outer band to our south. Many many strikes.

[eastcoastFL]

[Blinhart]

Im very concerned the refineries at Port Arthur will be the major story after this storm.

Those are built to Miami standards, so I don't think they will be that much of a problem. Most refineries have been retrofitted since all the past Major Hurricanes. They also have procedures that limit the risk of Environmental Hazards.

[Nimbus]

Recon just took a center fix very near Levi Cohen's 25N -90W benchmark for the Galveston island VS LA border landfall debate. might be a stair step jog to the north later this morning?

[Blinhart]

It’s along the TX coastline. I don’t see any impacts until possibly the very end of the over water track.

And by then I think its forecast to start pulling away as she's coming in. I guess it's all about timing

It was supposed to back up enough for Marco to get going too. It was a little more pesky though. It left a piece back that was spinning and split back but the trough kind of only slowly migrated west and held Marco at bay and even sheared the top off and continues to do so even now. Marco partially went under the eastern edge of the high clouds moving NE alone the trough edge as you could see at the end of daylight visible. But he was pulling SW to S at that point and is at a much lower steering level than the east side flow. You know the sw flow was strong with the storm and firing 100-200 miles to the northeast this afternoon. We only have a day and 3 hours until landfall. And with the east edge of the trough adjacent and even part of the boundary of the anticyclone over Laura, how much can it pull back now? I don’t know. I’m not trying to make or refute the argument either way. I’m just observing. Lots of lightning with that first outer band to our south. Many many strikes.

Steve are you saying what I think you are saying, East of state line?

[ConvergenceZone]

Forsee gradual eastern shifts in the forecast due to future sheer, shape, and intensity.

Friendly reminder than I'm NOT a pro met and my OPINION should NOT be taken as gospel. Please follow the instruction of your local government.

I don't know if this is truly the case though. I haven't heard it mentioned once on the weather channel that if the storm intensified significantly then the track will go more east. I mean that's pretty big, so I think that would be mentioned if that were the case.......

No because they want to make sure Houston is prepared just in case it doesn't end up at the state line or East of there. They don't want to look bad. All the latest models I have seen has shown a slight East shift.

That's good from a strength standpoint, as that means quicker landfall and less time over the open water.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1298455258092339200