ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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NDG
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5301 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:16 am

Laura's eye now withing radar's long range.

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5302 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:17 am

VIS showing towers obscuring the eye.
A long way to go before she tops out.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5303 Postby aspen » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:18 am

Kingarabian wrote:
tiger_deF wrote:How many more hours does she have before landfall?

24.

There better be some shear closer to landfall, because at this rate of deepening (~3.33 mbar/hr), Laura would get below 900 mbar in 24 hours. Thankfully, it doesn’t seem like this portion of the Gulf close to land could support that intensity, but it doesn’t make Laura any less of a threat.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5304 Postby HurricaneEdouard » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:18 am

And so we have it, folks: the first major hurricane of 2020.

When this thing was still an INVEST, I forecast it to become Laura and become a major hurricane this week, noting my belief that it would move considerably more westward than the models and the official forecast indicated, into the Caribbean and into the Gulf to threaten the Gulf coast as a major hurricane, and stuck to my guns ever since despite some bearish globals. I'm not glad my forecast panned out - it's horrific to see - but I do expect to see a high-end Category 4 or low-end Category 5 hurricane at this point. A 6mb+ drop in 55 minutes is extremely significant, and it looks like the pressure just dropped 1mb again.
Last edited by HurricaneEdouard on Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:28 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5305 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:19 am

aspen wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
tiger_deF wrote:How many more hours does she have before landfall?

24.

There better be some shear closer to landfall, because at this rate of deepening (~3.33 mbar/hr), Laura would get below 900 mbar in 24 hours. Thankfully, it doesn’t seem like this portion of the Gulf close to land could support that intensity...

Camille and Michael would argue otherwise. Both were sub-920-mb landfalls on the northern Gulf Coast. Camille was exactly 900 mb at landfall in MS.
Last edited by Shell Mound on Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:20 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5306 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:19 am

This has turned into a classic GOMEX monster.

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5307 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:20 am

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5308 Postby USTropics » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:20 am

Kingarabian wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
tiger_deF wrote:How many more hours does she have before landfall?


18 she’s about 280 miles from land moving 15 mph

The 06z models don't landfall this until 21-25 hours from now.


24 hours is more realistic and what the ECMWF 06z model shows. This will slow down a bit as it edges around the western periphery of the mid-level high that has been steering it.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5309 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:20 am

110 knot flight level winds found by NOAA recon, I'm sure the AF recon will find even higher winds in that same quadrant.

120630 2640N 09113W 7524 02238 9693 +189 +136 134074 077 078 006 00
120700 2641N 09112W 7528 02249 9718 +179 +156 135084 088 091 008 00
120730 2642N 09110W 7518 02284 9754 +162 //// 146096 101 096 015 01
120800 2644N 09108W 7508 02325 9791 +153 //// 145107 110 093 013 01
120830 2645N 09107W 7522 02331 9826 +147 //// 144101 106 084 023 01
120900 2646N 09105W 7527 02348 9849 +147 //// 144100 101 079 020 01
120930 2648N 09104W 7524 02368 9865 +151 //// 144096 097 078 011 01
121000 2649N 09102W 7512 02396 9885 +147 //// 144095 096 074 011 01
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5310 Postby Kazmit » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:20 am

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5311 Postby HurricaneEdouard » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:21 am

NDG wrote:110 knot flight level winds found by NOAA recon, I'm sure the AF recon will find even higher winds in that same quadrant.

120630 2640N 09113W 7524 02238 9693 +189 +136 134074 077 078 006 00
120700 2641N 09112W 7528 02249 9718 +179 +156 135084 088 091 008 00
120730 2642N 09110W 7518 02284 9754 +162 //// 146096 101 096 015 01
120800 2644N 09108W 7508 02325 9791 +153 //// 145107 110 093 013 01
120830 2645N 09107W 7522 02331 9826 +147 //// 144101 106 084 023 01
120900 2646N 09105W 7527 02348 9849 +147 //// 144100 101 079 020 01
120930 2648N 09104W 7524 02368 9865 +151 //// 144096 097 078 011 01
121000 2649N 09102W 7512 02396 9885 +147 //// 144095 096 074 011 01

100 knots might be conservative.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5312 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:22 am

Current intensity appears to be near 105kt.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5313 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:22 am

Shell Mound wrote:
aspen wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:24.

There better be some shear closer to landfall, because at this rate of deepening (~3.33 mbar/hr), Laura would get below 900 mbar in 24 hours. Thankfully, it doesn’t seem like this portion of the Gulf close to land could support that intensity...

Camille and Michael would argue otherwise. Both were sub-920-mb landfalls on the northern Gulf Coast. Camille was exactly 900 mb at landfall in MS.



Here’s the max intensity charts today

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5314 Postby hurricaneCW » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:22 am

GCANE wrote:VIS showing towers obscuring the eye.
A long way to go before she tops out.


That's the troubling part. She's still likely 12+ hrs from peaking and it's very possible this occurs just before landfall.

Very different than Rita/Katrina which peaked well over a day before landfall.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5315 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:23 am

Kazmit wrote:I am in absolute shock of what I just woke up to. :double:


20 pages since after 1am. ;)
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5316 Postby Ken711 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:25 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:This has turned into a classic GOMEX monster.

https://i.imgur.com/cBbTKhT.jpg


The buzz saw look.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5317 Postby Ryxn » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:25 am

Laura is showing her vogue eye now. A hurricane with an eye that looks like an actual human eye :eek: Take a look at this loop. It looks like Laura is temporarily winking. :wink: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24
Last edited by Ryxn on Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:35 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5318 Postby Kazmit » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:25 am

Steve wrote:
Kazmit wrote:I am in absolute shock of what I just woke up to. :double:


20 pages since after 1am. ;)

I went through all of it, took me half an hour. :lol:
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5319 Postby chris_fit » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:26 am

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5320 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:26 am

T6.0 from SAB


TXNT23 KNES 261205
TCSNTL

A. 13L (LAURA)

B. 26/1132Z

C. 26.5N

D. 91.2W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T6.0/6.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE SURROUNDED BY WHITE AND EMBEDDED IN BLACK YIELDS A
DT OF 6.0 INCLUDING EYE-ADJ OF +0.5. MET IS 5.0. PT IS 5.5. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...JLEVINE
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