ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[EquusStorm]

Andrew wasn't assessed as a category five at landfall either, took a decade to be reanalyzed. I think only Camille was ever assessed at that intensity in the US operationally and that was before the SSHS existed so you probably couldn't even really count that as an operational category five.

[Ken711]

Not sure it matters much with this kind of storm surge but will it be approaching land fall at low or high tide?

High tide 1:14am At Sabine Pass

Very close to high tide time.

Timing couldn't be worse.

[Fancy1001]

What's with that storm flare up to the northwest of Laura, how would that affect it?

[ConvergenceZone]

I remember hurricane Rita being really bad and making the news for a couple of weeks after landfall. Does this look to be as bad as Rita? I apologize for my ignorance, as I don’t remember how strong Rita was

[TXWeatherMan]

I remember hurricane Rita being really bad and making the news for a couple of weeks after landfall. Does this look to be as bad as Rita? I apologize for my ignorance, as I don’t remember how strong Rita was

It’s gonna be worse than Rita

[Ken711]

-Hurricane Michael (2018): Michael was a tropical storm just three days prior to making landfall. Michael rapidly intensified in the Gulf of Mexico just as Harvey did. It continued to strengthen right up until landfall. Upon reanalysis, Michael was reclassified as a Category 5 hurricane when it made landfall near Mexico Beach, Florida, on October 10.

[psyclone]

Laura is serving as Earth's temporary red spot. we have a west pac style super typhoon in the gulf. it's oddly out of place...like a dolphin in a bath tub. I'm mostly just watching in awe..

[Shell Mound]

Is it just me, or does the eye look to be shrinking a bit.

Yes I'm seeing that too. I don't think its a EWRC because the last microwave imagery shows a very thick eyewall...

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The intensity of the hot towers currently enveloping part of the eye is remarkable. This is going to be a solid Category-5 cyclone before and during landfall.

[caneman]

[quote="PTPatrick"]One interesting thing if this strengthens until landfall and hits as a high end cat 4 or 5 is that it and Michael should put to rest the notion that storms always weaken on approach to the northern gulf coast. Over the last 100 years of good records, they largely have. But not always. With climate change and recent trends I wouldn’t be amazed if we see .

We go through periods of hyperactivity and periods of strong hurricanes. We've also had very recent years of low activity and low end storms. It's cyclical.. This is provable and conclusive. Not sure I would blame that on on the theory of climate change. It wasn't long ago that people were wondering why the tropics were struggling to produce storms. Dust, water temps, etc.. Having said that, brace Tx-La. This is a bad one.

[Beef Stew]

I remember hurricane Rita being really bad and making the news for a couple of weeks after landfall. Does this look to be as bad as Rita? I apologize for my ignorance, as I don’t remember how strong Rita was

In all likelihood, probably worse. Maximum surge will be worse, and while the wind field isn't as large it will be more intense- Rita was a 115 mph CAT 3 on the downswing, and Laura will probably be a CAT 4+ holding intensity or even continuing to intensify through landfall.

[Highteeld]

Explosion of lighting due to the mesovorts

[Hypercane_Kyle]

CDO has become significantly better organized vs this morning. Much more symmetric. Probably a Category 4 now.

[emings]

Many folks in Mid-County (Nederland Port Neches Groves in Jefferson County) are riding it out i think they will regret it...

[shawn67]

Is it just me, or does the eye look to be shrinking a bit.

Eye contractions would be on par with continued intensification.

Like the figure skater drawing her hands in during a spin...ugh

[Kazmit]

[supercane4867]

[EquusStorm]

More eyewall lightning last few frames; I certainly don't think we've maxed out. This is gonna be one for the history books unfortunately

Oh wow, vis loops show the eyewall mesovortices really well. Shades of Michael.

[Shell Mound]

Explosion of lighting due to the mesovorts

https://i.imgur.com/k2myx8i.png

The mesoscale vortices are clearly visible on high-resolution NEXRAD, just as they were during Harvey (2017). These are key indicators of explosive deepening.

[NotoSans]

Eye is definitely clearing out but still a bit ragged and irregular on EIR. If Dvorak is correct we'd find a 125kt hurricane this pass.

[NDG]