ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- EquusStorm
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
Andrew wasn't assessed as a category five at landfall either, took a decade to be reanalyzed. I think only Camille was ever assessed at that intensity in the US operationally and that was before the SSHS existed so you probably couldn't even really count that as an operational category five.
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
panamatropicwatch wrote:O Town wrote:CronkPSU wrote:Not sure it matters much with this kind of storm surge but will it be approaching land fall at low or high tide?
High tide 1:14am At Sabine Pass
Very close to high tide time.
Timing couldn't be worse.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
What's with that storm flare up to the northwest of Laura, how would that affect it?
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- ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
I remember hurricane Rita being really bad and making the news for a couple of weeks after landfall. Does this look to be as bad as Rita? I apologize for my ignorance, as I don’t remember how strong Rita was
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
ConvergenceZone wrote:I remember hurricane Rita being really bad and making the news for a couple of weeks after landfall. Does this look to be as bad as Rita? I apologize for my ignorance, as I don’t remember how strong Rita was
It’s gonna be worse than Rita
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
-Hurricane Michael (2018): Michael was a tropical storm just three days prior to making landfall. Michael rapidly intensified in the Gulf of Mexico just as Harvey did. It continued to strengthen right up until landfall. Upon reanalysis, Michael was reclassified as a Category 5 hurricane when it made landfall near Mexico Beach, Florida, on October 10.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
Laura is serving as Earth's temporary red spot. we have a west pac style super typhoon in the gulf. it's oddly out of place...like a dolphin in a bath tub. I'm mostly just watching in awe..
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
shiny-pebble wrote:Yes I'm seeing that too. I don't think its a EWRC because the last microwave imagery shows a very thick eyewall...Fancy1001 wrote:Is it just me, or does the eye look to be shrinking a bit.
Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
The intensity of the hot towers currently enveloping part of the eye is remarkable. This is going to be a solid Category-5 cyclone before and during landfall.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
[quote="PTPatrick"]One interesting thing if this strengthens until landfall and hits as a high end cat 4 or 5 is that it and Michael should put to rest the notion that storms always weaken on approach to the northern gulf coast. Over the last 100 years of good records, they largely have. But not always. With climate change and recent trends I wouldn’t be amazed if we see .
We go through periods of hyperactivity and periods of strong hurricanes. We've also had very recent years of low activity and low end storms. It's cyclical.. This is provable and conclusive. Not sure I would blame that on on the theory of climate change. It wasn't long ago that people were wondering why the tropics were struggling to produce storms. Dust, water temps, etc.. Having said that, brace Tx-La. This is a bad one.
We go through periods of hyperactivity and periods of strong hurricanes. We've also had very recent years of low activity and low end storms. It's cyclical.. This is provable and conclusive. Not sure I would blame that on on the theory of climate change. It wasn't long ago that people were wondering why the tropics were struggling to produce storms. Dust, water temps, etc.. Having said that, brace Tx-La. This is a bad one.
Last edited by caneman on Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:54 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
ConvergenceZone wrote:I remember hurricane Rita being really bad and making the news for a couple of weeks after landfall. Does this look to be as bad as Rita? I apologize for my ignorance, as I don’t remember how strong Rita was
In all likelihood, probably worse. Maximum surge will be worse, and while the wind field isn't as large it will be more intense- Rita was a 115 mph CAT 3 on the downswing, and Laura will probably be a CAT 4+ holding intensity or even continuing to intensify through landfall.
Last edited by Beef Stew on Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
Explosion of lighting due to the mesovorts


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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
CDO has become significantly better organized vs this morning. Much more symmetric. Probably a Category 4 now.


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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
Many folks in Mid-County (Nederland Port Neches Groves in Jefferson County) are riding it out i think they will regret it...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Fancy1001 wrote:Is it just me, or does the eye look to be shrinking a bit.
Eye contractions would be on par with continued intensification.
Like the figure skater drawing her hands in during a spin...ugh
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- Kazmit
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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- EquusStorm
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
More eyewall lightning last few frames; I certainly don't think we've maxed out. This is gonna be one for the history books unfortunately
Oh wow, vis loops show the eyewall mesovortices really well. Shades of Michael.
Oh wow, vis loops show the eyewall mesovortices really well. Shades of Michael.
Last edited by EquusStorm on Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
The mesoscale vortices are clearly visible on high-resolution NEXRAD, just as they were during Harvey (2017). These are key indicators of explosive deepening.
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CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
Eye is definitely clearing out but still a bit ragged and irregular on EIR. If Dvorak is correct we'd find a 125kt hurricane this pass.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
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