ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wkwally]

Nope. They nail it most times.

I'm just thinking of charley and how they screwed up its turn.

That was 16 years ago. Track forecasting has improved. And they are the best of the best.

However still human

[KWT]

I just can't believe we maybe on for the 5th season in a row with a cat-5...

Still less likely than likely imo but can't deny the chances have been rapidly increasing.

[South Texas Storms]

Praying for all who will be impacted by this powerful hurricane. Thankfully it looks like Houston will miss the brunt of the storm. Conditions should continue to rapidly deteriorate for areas farther east throughout the rest of today and tonight.

[b0tzy29]

Prayers up for anyone in the path -- Bai God

[northjaxpro]

I'm tracking the eye on radar. On its current trajectory of the past few hours, it will make landfall well SOUTH of Galveston. There is time for it to move more northerly but I'm concerned that the unexpected strength may be pumping up the ridge more than the models expected. It is more and more likely if these trends persist that the center will pass to the west of Port Arthur and put Beaumont and that whole area on the dirty side.

An illusion, it’s still moving

I swear that eye is still moving more west than north. It's almost due south of Lake Charles. Is the storm supposed to do a 90 degree turn north at this point?

Excellent point. It is my huge concern as well with such an incredibly powerful cyclone like this one
I pray that the ridge is not being pumped more, but it is a possibility.

[p1nheadlarry]

Eye presentation is slowly improving on IR

VRW's still churning about the center

[Ritzcraker]

Theoretically, would a stronger and more stacked storm be more inclined to move west?

No. A more stacked storm moves poleward i.e. North

[Aric Dunn]

Pressure only 953? That's surprisingly high to me.

I noticed that as well, you think it'd be lower.
Florence (150 Mph) - 937 mb
Harvey (130 mph) - 937 mb
Joaquin (155 mph) - 931 mb
Gonzalo (145 mph) - 940 mb
The only storm I found in recent years around Laura's strength with such a relatively "high" pressure was Nicole in 2016.. wonder what the reasoning is.

High background pressures.

[Fancy1001]

I'm just thinking of charley and how they screwed up its turn.

That was 16 years ago. Track forecasting has improved. And they are the best of the best.

However still human

I know, I was just pointing out why I thought he might have been being sarcastic.

[cheezyWXguy]

Theoretically, would a stronger and more stacked storm be more inclined to move west?

No. A more stacked storm moves poleward i.e. North

Normally, yes. But upper level steering patterns are more westward here due to the high pressure to the north. A stronger system is influenced more by the upper levels and would likely shift west, but it probably won't have much influence at this point.

[cfisher]

A trend Laura seems to be good at: transfer energy from the NE wall into other quadrants then repair the NE wall.

[xironman]

You would have to wonder with this nice a structure if it could hold on better inland.

[sponger]

An illusion, it’s still moving NW.

Stair stepping its way right into Galveston Bay. Going to be yet another exciting critical turn the NHC is famous for forecasting correctly.

Is that suppose to be sarcastic at the end?

Not at all! The Euro may be the king of forecasting tracks but the NHC is the king of forecasting rounding ridges and trough shunts, and has been for a long time.

[GrayLancer18]

Pressure only 953? That's surprisingly high to me.

I noticed that as well, you think it'd be lower.
Florence (150 Mph) - 937 mb
Harvey (130 mph) - 937 mb
Joaquin (155 mph) - 931 mb
Gonzalo (145 mph) - 940 mb
The only storm I found in recent years around Laura's strength with such a relatively "high" pressure was Nicole in 2016.. wonder what the reasoning is.

High background pressures.

So that means that Laura can reach higher wind speeds with less effort in pressure drop?

[Cunxi Huang]

I noticed that as well, you think it'd be lower.
Florence (150 Mph) - 937 mb
Harvey (130 mph) - 937 mb
Joaquin (155 mph) - 931 mb
Gonzalo (145 mph) - 940 mb
The only storm I found in recent years around Laura's strength with such a relatively "high" pressure was Nicole in 2016.. wonder what the reasoning is.

High background pressures.

So that means that Laura can reach higher wind speeds with less effort in pressure drop?

Could be.

[FLpanhandle91]

I noticed that as well, you think it'd be lower.
Florence (150 Mph) - 937 mb
Harvey (130 mph) - 937 mb
Joaquin (155 mph) - 931 mb
Gonzalo (145 mph) - 940 mb
The only storm I found in recent years around Laura's strength with such a relatively "high" pressure was Nicole in 2016.. wonder what the reasoning is.

High background pressures.

So that means that Laura can reach higher wind speeds with less effort in pressure drop?

Correct.

[Highteeld]

I noticed that as well, you think it'd be lower.
Florence (150 Mph) - 937 mb
Harvey (130 mph) - 937 mb
Joaquin (155 mph) - 931 mb
Gonzalo (145 mph) - 940 mb
The only storm I found in recent years around Laura's strength with such a relatively "high" pressure was Nicole in 2016.. wonder what the reasoning is.

High background pressures.

So that means that Laura can reach higher wind speeds with less effort in pressure drop?

The Euro thinks so

[xironman]

I'm tracking the eye on radar. On its current trajectory of the past few hours, it will make landfall well SOUTH of Galveston. There is time for it to move more northerly but I'm concerned that the unexpected strength may be pumping up the ridge more than the models expected. It is more and more likely if these trends persist that the center will pass to the west of Port Arthur and put Beaumont and that whole area on the dirty side.

An illusion, it’s still moving

Excellent point. It is my huge concern as well with such an incredibly powerful cyclone like this one
I pray that the ridge is not being pumped more, but it is a possibility.

Yeah, pumping up the ridge, we have seen it, but the models should be better now.

[Janie2006]

Classic “buzz saw” look appearing. Laura is drawing in air and moisture as far away as SW Alabama and the Florida panhandle.

Anyone in the path of this hurricane...rush preps to completion and batten down the hatches.

Better yet, get out.

People are going to die should they fail to take this extremely seriously.

[psyclone]

Nope. They nail it most times.

I'm just thinking of charley and how they screwed up its turn.

That was 16 years ago. Track forecasting has improved. And they are the best of the best.

In addition Charley was a pint sized bullet. more like giant tornado. Laura is a massive steamroller